Meet
Why OKC is not the favorite as some claim…
Posted by: Adam Mason on October 20th, 2010
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.We’ve heard all these predictions about the Jazz season and how it’s all going to come down. Most believe bottom five and 2nd or 3rd in division. A recent blog on slcdunk.com from clarkpojo goes over in detail a lot about some predictions:
John Hollinger is a statistical guru for ESPN who uses a statistical model he invented after studying the statistics of basketball for 6 straight months at Harvard University. Okay, I don’t know where or why he developed it, but his projections are made up solely of statistics and statistical tendencies. He has the Jazz finishing this season at
47-35, 3rd in the Northwest Division and 6th in the Western Conference
It seems like a low win total for a Jazz team, but you have to remind yourself that Hollinger takes all of the bias out of his projections.
Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus also uses statistics and his stats don’t smile down upon the Jazz at all. Pelton and his cohort Bradford Doolittle have also put together advanced statistical projections and have determined that the Jazz will play 500 ball this year.
41-41, 4th in the NW division and 10th in the Western Conference. Again, no bias, only statistics.
And then there are your NBA experts who have just considered probably a hodgepodge of everything from numbers to watching films, to “following their hearts,” I don’t know their methods.
A group of ESPN NBA experts averaged their projections and got:
47-35, 4th in the NW division and 7th in the Western Conference
ProBasketballTalk agrees:
48-34, and the 7th or 8th seed in the West
Hoopshype says:
50-32, 3rd in NW, 5th in the West. For what it’s worth, they also have the Jazz losing to the Lakers in the 2nd round
Now I know that it’s easy for me to believe contrary to what the experts believe because I love the Jazz. I also know that there is just a lot of question marks and we don’t know how this team will come together and gel. With a lot of new faces there is bound to be some question marks.
That being said, however, I believe the NBA is jumping on the OKC bandwagon too quickly. Kevin Durant is the next MVP and this team is the only team in the West that can challenge the Lakers. I’m sick of hearing this because I believe they are not taking things into account with some of the question marks on that team. I think Marc Spears from Yahoo! Sports agrees with me a bit in the latest Yahoo! video where he stated that he thinks the Thunder are not quite there yet and that the Jazz and Deron Williams are a darkhorse team.
Having said that, Kevin Durant is special and is receiving MVP type treatment. He very well could be the MVP of the season. There’s no doubt that he’ll be right up there with Lebron for the best NBA player in the game after Kobe is done. I also have a great deal of respect for him and the way he just handles himself.
My question marks are simply youth and lack of depth. I was listening to a podcast with David Locke talking with OKC’s radio reporters of some kind. Locke pointed out that the same starting five started the first 76 games last year. The injury bug did not hit that team at all. They enjoyed an extremely successful team as a season because they all stayed healthy. That is not going to be the same thing every year. The way Westbrook plays driving the lane and contesting with the big men, he can’t stay healthy forever. I guess he can, but it’s really not likely.
Also going along with that is if any of their starting five do go down, they don’t have a lot of depth that will keep their team at No. 2 seed competitiveness all year long. Westbrook goes down they got a solid backup in Maynor, but then what. Jeff Green goes down, then you turn to Nick Collison to start. Solid role player, but definitely not a starter. Kristic goes down, you only got an unproven Cole Aldrich. Serge Ibaka is awesome and I think he provides some depth, but not enough.
I don’t know, this is just my take. OKC is very young and may be a bit naieve so they just believe in themselves which paid dividends for them last year. I just don’t know that they can keep it up like they have year in and year out until they all get a bit older and a bit more experience. That’s just my take and I believe they’ll be right up there in the thick of things again, but they’re not the favorite. It should be interesting with the Jazz, a more healthy Trailblazer team, a Denver Nugget team that still has Billups and Melo, and a great team in OKC. I personally believe that the division is up for grabs and won’t be decided until the very end of the season. What’s your take Jazz fans?
Replies: 6
Views: 1047
6 Responses
We all know that the outcome of a single basketball game relies on quite unpredictable factors. And obviously, when you win, your opponent loses. So from an insignificant factor, you can climb up the rankings in the same way that you can slide away. Just change the result of any of the last game for the teams classified n°2-7 in the west last year.
The predictions of the models used should include an error estimation, and we would probably see 8-10 teams in the same window for each conference … hopefully: that’s why we are still having interest in that stuff !
I can’t figure out how people think a Jazz team that upgraded its roster at the positions they lost players at and potentially won’t have every starter injured for a significant amount of time (except wes) will do worse this season.
OKC will have more of a spotlight – people will take them seriously and they won’t do as well in my opinion. I also agree with the depth issues. The Jazz have a crazy deep bench this season.
Taking the other teams in the NW into consideration, first I don’t see Greg Oden ever getting healthy for an extended period of time. Knee injuries on big guys never go away. They also have distractions with Fernandez.
Denver has the worst trouble of any team in the NW for obvious reasons.
JAZZ #1!
To Big Al: HEAL
Thank you!
my thoughts exactly. OKC doesn’t have the depth we have. Its like how New Orleans a few years ago was the only team to contend with teh Lakers and was the team of the future in the WC and then Portland after them
OKC had the most perfect season that they could have possibly could have. That likely won’t happen two years in a row.
>> Knee injuries on big guys never go away.
Let’s hope that’s not true! Al will be in big trouble.
zombie sonics forever!
The Jazz have played well in the preseason, I think Everyone is looking at OKC as the next Powerhouse team in the West. It’s too soon, Injuries will hit this season and put setbacks. Writers and commentators will then change their mind suddenly.
The Jazz have the depth and cohesion to grab the #1 seed, Injuries will hit us, but we can replace players fairly easily. The Jazz are a top 3 seed team this year. And once the playoffs near all the writers will start noticing the Jazz’s power play, Just like every other year we do stellar.