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Deron vs. CP3: The Dilemma
Posted by: Andy Larsen on November 30th, 2010
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.There are two sides to my basketball fandom: the crazy Jazz fan side and the rational NBA fan side. Those two sides of me feel very differently about which point guard is ranked higher, and while I tried to explain this at my Twitter account: @andyblarsen, I wanted to do a full post here. This post, in many ways, serves as the “devil’s advocate” position to most Jazz fans’ beliefs. To preface, here are Chris Paul and Deron Williams’ cumulative NBA stats:
Player G MP FG FGA FG% 3P% FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Chris Paul 360 37.2 6.8 14.4 .473 .358 .850 4.7 10.0 2.4 0.1 2.6 2.6 19.2
Deron Williams 403 35.4 6.1 13.2 .466 .361 .802 3.2 9.1 1.0 0.2 3.0 2.7 16.9
Here are the things both the Jazz fan and the NBA fan in me know to be true:
- That Deron and Chris Paul are the top two point guards in the NBA.
- That the debate between which one of them is better is absolutely valid. Some fans of either player say that they’re “not in the same realm(or league, or tier). It’s false, they’re both excellent, excellent PGs.
The Jazz fan in me thinks that Deron is better. There are reasons to believe this is true:
- Deron’s got much better size. This allows him to draw more fouls than Paul. Deron draws a foul on 8.2% of his possessions this season, Paul only draws a foul 3.3% of the time.
- CP3 is 203-157 in his career, while Deron is 245-158.
- Deron wins the head-to-head matchups, pretty convincingly. He’s 12-3 in his career against CP3. Anecdotally, when watching Paul live at the ESA, I’ve never been that impressed. Last Wednesday, for example, he seemed to quit. Over the course of their matchups, here are their statlines:
Player G W L GS MP FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS Deron Williams 15 12 3 14 35.5 .546 1.4 2.9 .488 .735 3.1 8.6 1.3 0.0 2.9 3.1 17.1 Chris Paul 15 3 12 15 35.2 .416 0.5 2.4 .222 .871 3.2 8.9 2.4 0.1 2.5 3.3 15.7
Deron shoots better on the same number of attempts, makes drastically more of his 3s, and scores more in head to head matchups, while Paul only has a significant edge in steals and FT%. When playing against each other, Deron clearly comes out on top.
- Durability. Paul has missed nearly 3 times as many games in his career when compared to Williams.
- He’s been clutch. Just look at the Laker win, the 4 game miracle road trip, etc. He’s made very few mistakes when it matters most, and made very many positive plays. I’ve watched all of his games, and I’m usually extremely impressed.
The NBA fan in me, however, sees the following:
- Paul has much, much better adjusted +/- stats than Williams. The stats show that the Jazz are 5.4 points worse per game this season when Deron is on the floor. With Paul, the Hornets are 15.2 points better. This isn’t a small sample size fluke: while Deron’s +/- is usually positive, it has always been lower than Paul’s.
Let’s think about that for a second. That stat is adjusted +/-, which means that it’s adjusted for teammate performance. So we can’t use the excuse that Deron’s backups are better than Paul’s (though they are). It is also adjusted for the opposing matchups, so playing against starters vs. playing against bench players is no excuse either. Thinking further about it, that stat also makes sense: it’s largely been the 2nd unit, without Deron, that has caused the comebacks of this season. If Williams was the best point guard in the league, wouldn’t you hope that his time on the floor gave his team more of an advantage than Earl Watson or Ronnie Price?
- Despite his size, Paul is a better rebounder than Deron. He used to be a significantly better rebounder, but Deron has closed the gap some in the last two seasons.
- Paul allows fewer turnovers per game than Deron, this season about 1 per game fewer.
- Everyone says Deron’s a better shooter, it’s not really the case. Paul has a slightly higher FG%(47.3% to 46.6%), a slightly lower 3P%(35.8% to 36.1%) and a better free throw shooter (85% to 80.2%).
- Again, despite his size, Paul is a better defender.
DRTG is a statistic compiled by comparing how a team does defensively while a given player is on the floor. Over their careers, Deron’s DRTG is 109, while Paul’s is 104. This means that, per 100 possessions (roughly the length of an NBA game), Deron’s team can expect to give up about 5 points more on the defensive end. Again, the system attempts to adjust for teammate performance, so Boozer/Okur vs. West/Chandler/Okafor isn’t the issue here.
This season alone, Deron’s given up 0.94 PPP defensively, while Paul has given up 0.9 PPP. This isn’t adjusted for teammate performance, so given that Okafor/West is better defensively than Millsap/Jefferson, their performance this season is about equal. In fact, Deron’s isolation defense has been fantastic this year: only giving up 0.5 PPP, the lowest in the league. Paul’s advantages come on other kinds of plays.
Additionally, Paul forces turnovers more often(17.6% to 11.7%), and fouls less often(2.4% to 8.3%) than Williams.
When taken all together, the statistics show that Chris Paul has MVP level seasons, while Deron Williams has All-Star level seasons. Jazz fans, that shouldn’t be taken as an insult, Chris Paul really is that great of a player. We just don’t notice because he’s so consistently outplayed by Deron in the head-to-head matchups. However, against the other 28 teams, Paul has been statistically better over the course of his career.
And that’s what is so hard about this argument for me. I’m a stats guy, and I truly believe that statistics can eliminate the bias introduced when watching games. When I watch the games, I think Deron is better, but how much of that opinion is because I’m a Jazz fan? How much of that is because about half of the time I watch Paul, it’s while he’s playing the Jazz? It’s impossible to tell. I honestly have no idea who would be better playing for the Jazz. I am very glad, however, that Deron and Lebron aren’t friends, nor is Deron demanding a trade like one CP3.
I expect the comment section to be highly favorable to Deron. However, if you prefer Deron, and you have plenty of reason to be, please say why you favor him over Paul, and ideally we can have a constructive conversation about the topic.
Replies: 9
Views: 928
9 Responses
Those are both stats. Even the pro-Deron information is stats. Yeah, sure Paul does well overall consideing the other 28 teams, but who’s team plays better? And really? How can we say that some of our guys are better? I mean the Jazz team is better, so that should be enough said right?
Most of our guys are second rounders, non-drafted. I think coaching has to do with it. But also, I think Deron is a better leader than Paul. The hornets have players with overall better talent, so the better coaching/system evens things out. But then you have Deron’s leadership. His ability to have that relationship with coach Sloan, and his leadership to carry out the system and drive on to the Win.
His drive to win games. You had mentioned it, but kind of down played it. Stats are something you can read. But excellence through adversity is something to be witnessed! There are plenty of times we witness that with Deron and the Jazz. (And he has more of those moments then Paul, because the whole world knows it when Paul does it. It’s all over the Media.) He has the ability to make the people around him even better because of those traits that Paul lacks. If Paul is such the Superstar as his stats say them to be, (only if you read them one side as if they were to cancel out all the other stat points mentioned) why has he never at least been to the WCF? Why has Deron’s team even with all the Drama that Boozer gave this team continue to make the playoffs? Why when the Jazz get to the playoffs, Deron up’s his game, even after he improves during the season, in respect to season before?
@Gerald: Yeah, both sides are stats, though probably Deron’s are the more basic of the two (adjusted +/-, for example, is really hard to calculate!).
Anyway, you reference Deron’s drive to win, excellence through adversity, etc. It truly is incredible. The chances of the Jazz coming back in all 4 games on that road trip from the lowest point was about 1 in 229 million. And you’re right, he does up his game during the playoffs, even statistically, which is an incredible accomplishment against tougher competition.
The one thing holding Deron back, in my opinion, is that he can’t make that drive last for the whole game. We’re seeing it in the first quarter of games this season, and more defensively than offensively. But in the 4th quarter, with the game on the line? There may not be a better defensive player. But for him to play that way all game is probably impossible. And given the results so far this season, what he’s doing now is good enough.
Ok,I read the title, saw there were stats, and came straight to the bottom. There is only one stat that matters in the NBA (Whether LeBron knows this or not) and its the W.
When you retire and call it good, you will not be judged on your +/- or your ppg in your rookie year. You will not be judged on how many records you break or how many times you led the league in scoring.
You will be judged on winning, how often you did it, and how many times your were the best at it (obtaining a ring).
How many of you guys play fantasy BBall? Pick CP3. He’s a stat sheet stuffer, racks up points/assists/steals as well as anyone in the league.
How many of you guys are NBA fans? Pick CP3. He puts on highlight shows with fancy passes and circus shots.
How many of you guys are basketball fans? Pick Deron. In my opinion he is the perfect point guard. Yes some say the PG is mainly about passing and a perfect point guard should average 15 assists a game, but I’m not one of those people. Deron is not only the most durable pg’s in the league, he is one of the most durable players. He players through injuries on a nightly basis, but he doesn’t let that stop him. Deron is as clutch as almost any other player in the league, does anyone else realize that that floater in the bobcats game isn’t even really a part of his offensive game? And yet he hit it like it was his signiture shot. But the most important part about Deron is that he is a winner. He doesn’t care about anything else. I’m betting he would rather have 1 championship ring over 15 MVP awards. He HATES to lose, sure he can be emotional and when the Jazz are down he is frustrated, but this is only going to make him a better player.
When in college, in scrimmages, derons coach would put Dwill with the worst players on the team. This made Deron mad at first, but eventually he started winning with him.
Deron’s “Will” power can be amazing. People say how Dwill goes the Jazz go, that is a true statement.
anyways…..
CP3 is…
quicker
better at getting in passing lanes for steals and such
fancyier (spelling?)
better at stats (ironically not this year though…)
Deron is better at….
He’s Stronger
He’s more durable
He’s a better on ball defender, staying in front of ball, etc.
Finishing at the rim.
Best Crossover in the league.
Better shooter/3pt shooter.
More clutcher
He’s from texas people.
***He’s the better Winner.
**To close to call on whose the better passer. Both are great at it. Stat wise Cp3 is averaging .2 more assists, but he averages a much higher % of his teams assists than Deron does..so, decide yourself on that one.
Lets put it this way- Lebron says CP3 is the best in the league and Kobe says D-Will is the best and always has been. Yes I hate both, but one of them has a handful of rings unlike the other.
(don’t you guys just love comments that turn into blogs?)
Kyle, I think easily, that either yours or mine could have turned into a blog, but its good that it stays on topic with a blog already posted.
And good call with the “Lebron says CP3 is the best in the league and Kobe says D-Will is the best and always has been. Yes I hate both, but one of them has a handful of rings unlike the other.”
Not only that, Paul came into the league great and hasn’t improved much. Almost if anything, he is starting to sag. People could argue that Deron came in great, but slightly less than Paul, but ONLY CONTINUES to improve. This leads to how the COACHES of the NBA find Deron better than Paul.
Lead on Deron, lead on!
@Gerald, totally forgot to include the improvement factor
Great and daring post. @kyle you should read the whole article. This has to be the point guard era. While better point guards have played the game, the league has never had this many great PGs at one time. I think Deron is the better point guard though, I don’t mind people saying Paul is better. I’ve always thought of Deron Williams as a career guy, like Stockton, putting up constantly great numbers throughout a long career. I’ve always seen Paul as a guy who will have a short, but bright career.
I’m not convinced that Deron has hit his ceiling yet either. I have seen significant improvement in almost every phase of his game with passing each season. Scary to think how good he could be in the next few years if he keeps up this pace
TACOREV, you read my mind. Not only do I think Deron hasn’t hit his ceiling yet, this also is the same for the Jazz team. Having the Lakers lose tonight has put the Jazz at 3rd in the West. They could take 2nd by Friday, and I honestly think they will. I think the Jazz would have beaten San Antonio their first time playing if they had had the Bell. (Not to mention the refs really didn’t like the Jazz the second time they played OKC *translating to a loss*. Also they didn’t didn’t like them when they were playing the Bucks last night *even though they won*. I’m pretty unbias regardless of whether they win or lose.)
This is the era of the point guard. With the legalization of zone defenses, the old isolation play has died, for the most part, and teams have to run an actual offense in order to win at the highest level.
I’d say Chris Paul would have been the better player in the Jordan era. He makes plays as well as anybody. But it isn’t the Jordan era. William’s versatility, leadership and mastery of Sloan’s offense puts him on top.