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Best Available
Posted by: Patrick on June 16th, 2011
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.What exactly does best available mean? Is there a rating scheme showing you what best available is? Do you rank talent by a person’s history (school and stats)? Do you measure them against the talent they played with or against? Do you rate them by their physical bodies? How about age? Experience? Is a PG more Valuable than a Center? What is idealistic, and what is actual? What is potential vs actual talent? How can you tell who is best available is? Is there a star chart out there, or a dart board? Is it the guy with the loudest agent or one with the most connections?
There are some draft prospects that we hardly heard of until the playoffs. There are others that appeared out of no where. Some have very little tape to watch. Others have their own You Tube fan clubs. What makes one player more valuable than another, and how do we rank them? It seems that overall we do a pretty good job of ranking players each year, but every year there are guys who are sleepers, the steals of the draft. Every year there are flops. Guys who appeared to be NBA All Stars, who never leave the bench after the D league.
You may wonder why I ask. There is one kid that has what all the others have, desire, heart, good work ethics, very coachable, but he seems to be low on the draft board. There are questions about him, but tell me what draft pick has no questions about them. Irving played few games due to injuries. Many wonder if Knight isnt the better PG. Williams is a bit of a tweener, with a heck of a shot. He swears he is a SF, but many others consider him an undersized PF. Fredette is a big question mark. The kid can shoot lights out and probably blind folded, but he played 4 yrs college, and his defense has been called into question. Biyombo, a physical freak. Can play jungle ball like no other, defending the basket like his life depended upon it, but he cannot shoot. There are several good Europeans, but will they ever play in the NBA?
Many of these guys have twins to their game. But because their schools were small, they supposedly arent as good as the bigger school players? Why is that? A shot is a shot. 3 pt is a 3 pt, free throw is the same distance. Heck some good kids, play with bad team mates, so they are never heard of does that make them bad? Here are a few comparisons. I will tell you some things that may surprise you, then you tell me why there is such a distance between their draft rankings.
(Standing Vertical)(No step jump)(max vertical)(# Bench)(Lane agility)(Mod lane agility)(sprint)
Williams…..29………11′5″……34.5…..19 reps…11.03……….5.49…….3.23 Sophmore
Harris…….28.5………11′3″……37.5…..12 reps..10.96…….5.47.….3.17 Freshman
Singleton.30.5….11′2″..37.5………15 reps……11.33…….5.59………3.09 Junior
Derrick Williams
So yr 19.5 ppg, 8.3 reb, 1.1 ast, 1 st, .7 blk, 60% fg, 57% 3pt
Fr yr 15.7 ppg, 7.1 reb, .7 ast, .6 st, .6 blk, 57% fg, 25% 3pt
Tobias Harris
Fr yr 15.3 ppg, 7.3 reb, 1.3 ast, .7st, .9 blk, 46% fg, 30% 3pt
Chris Singleton
Jr yr 13.1 ppg, 6.8 reb, 1.2 ast, 2 st, 1.5 blk, 43% fg, 37% 3pt
Fr yr 8.1 ppg, 4.9 reb, 1.1 ast, 1.5 st, 1.3 blk, 41% fg, 33% 3pt
The two I want you to compare closest are Harris and Williams. If Harris went back to school, would he be next yrs Williams? What sets these guys so far apart. Harris is ranked 4th in SF’s by NBA Draft, Aran Smith has him listed as the top 5th SF and 15th overall, Chad Ford has him listed 7th in SF 19th overall. Draft express has Harris listed as 9th out of a 100. Looking at each persons boards and list, it makes you wonder how they rank these kids, and what makes a person best available..
One more quick example before I let you guys explain this to me.. Jimmer Fredette and Andrew Goudelock. These young men have such similar stats I dont need to post them. Both have range like no other. The main difference is Schools, and that Jimmer took more shots than Andrew did their senior yr. Some people would have you believe that if Goudelock played in BYU’s system that he would not have done so well, because the talent level is so much different. If this is true, how are all these draft prospects going to make it in the NBA? Shooting is what Jimmer and Andrew are good at. They have the same size, speeds, range, and percentages, so your telling me that because Goudelock went to a small school or was surrounded by lessor talent that his game wont translate? What makes you so sure?
So, what makes a kid who is ranked and rated higher than other kids, drafted after them? Not only in this case but others. Are Tobias and Goudelock sleepers? Are Williams and Fredette over rated? Is there something that I am missing? What makes Best Available?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-eGGJcxmS0 2 am workout.
http://www.draftexpress.com/rankings/Top-100-Prospects Rankings
http://www.nbadraftinsider.com/2011-mock-draft/ Mock draft
Replies: 11
Views: 768
11 Responses
The difference is that Williams and Fredette actually did something. A lot of people pretend that next year’s performance will be better just because, but that isn’t true. Just think of how good CJ Miles would be now if each year he had actually improved. Most college players don’t make the next step. That is why those who already have are worth much more than those who look like they might have it in them.
I think you look at everything. You look at what the player has already accomplished, while at the same time making the determination of what you think that particular players ceiling is for the future. How much better can they become, and what limitations do they have to work with? Some things you can correct, and other you can’t. You aren’t going to be able to change Ronnie Brewers shooting stroke, because of a childhood accident. You aren’t going to be able to water Spud Webb and make him grow any taller. You look for players who are not only willing to put in the hard work to become better, but more importantly, actually have the physical ability to become better. That’s why Favors is so promising. He has the body, and the work ethic, to become a really good player.
Fes has the body, but I dont see him getting better. Brewer has an awful stroke, but while he was here in Utah, he not only scored, but was awesome defensively. Mathews was never drafted and is now starting for Portland. Is there no sure signs? Could Tobias be so low on draft boards because he doesnt have Jimmers agent? Just curious.
Fes doesn’t have the work ethic.
Brewer was a late lottery pick which matches up with the kind of contributor he has been in the NBA.
Teams just missed on Matthews. It happens in every draft. There is no perfect system, or sure signs when it comes to evalutaing a players heart and desire.
KOC said that they have a board with the BPA listed in order. When they are selected they are taken off the list. So they probably have only fifteen names on the board. The entire staff will probably meet say next Tuesday to discuss the board. Then whoever goes to Jersey on Thursday will keep track of every move.When a selection is made I think the next team is on the clock for around three to four minutes. They must come up with a selection by then. During this time phones are ringing and trades and what not is finalized. Then it won’t be over till pick # 60 is made. There will be one week after the draft foe any more moves. Sounds like a busy time..
When it comes to Freddette and Goudelock you have to look at the competition that they played against during their seasons. A player that played against a weaker defense will have an easier time making a shot than a player playing against a stronger defense. When it comes to stats between Williams and Harris a big one that stands out to me is the number of reps on the bench. It clearly shows that Williams is stronger and has more endurance which he will need in the NBA. Those stats make a difference to an NBA scout and GM.
Chad Ford did a great article about how teams choose the best player availible and which players in this draft are in each tier. You need to be an NBA insider though.
@Pirate I am not an insider but I would like to hear what he had to say so if you had time it would be cool to get some highlights.
LK, thats what I mean. Its not only 15 names. Then probably possible trades, possible situations, counter offers etc. Guessing 3 mins is not much time, especially with the way this draft will be. So much uncertainty.
The funny thing is, when you look, everyone see’s it differently. Aron Smith ranks people differently than Ford. You can see it in all the Mock drafts as well. I just dont understand how a guy who ranks so high on best players, end up drafted after other guys ranked behind them. I used Harris for two reasons, its easier to see with him than with some of the other draft prospects. Even when you look at Fords list, a guy ranked 7th could be drafted in the late teens, while a guy ranked 14th could go 9th.
Chad Ford said that he speaks to the GM’s around the league each year before the draft to find out how they feel about each of the players, and he found out that most of the GM’s place each of the players in tiers 1-4. Each year he also places the players in tiers based on what he hears from the GM’s as he talks to them when they do their workouts. This years draft has no Tier 1 players that would be someone like Blake Griffin who is for sure going to be an All-Star and no one in this draft has shown that ability. There are two players in the second tier Irving, and Williams, these players might be all stars, but are for sure starters in the NBA. Tier 3 players would be Kanter, Knight, Vessley, Walker, Leonard, through Freddette who could possibly be starters but could need some work. Tier 4 would be the rest of the players like Klay Thompson or the Morris brothers who might be good enough to be a lottery pick, but are on the bubble. What he said is that most teams will go off of a tier system like this and that no matter what the need of the team is, if there is a player on the board in a higher tier you need to take him because he is the best availible player. He gave the example of a team that didn’t follow this model of the Raptors when they took Rafael Araujo because they needed a center with their 8th pick and passed up on Andre Igudala.
Where the Jazz would fall into this would be if Minnesota didn’t follow this plan and took Kanter at #2, the Jazz would have to take Williams at #3 to follow the Best avilible player rule. Or when it came to the #12 pick and they had already taken Knight at the #3 and they had to choose between taking Freddette, a tier 3 PG, who can shoot, but they already drafted a PG, or, Klay Thompson or Markieff Morris Tier 4 SG and PF who fulfil needs of shooting or rebounding that the Jazz are in need of
Pirate, nice addition. But are there really teir 2 guys, or are there 2.5 guys. I would be more willing to say that Irving, Williams, Kanter, Knight, Valanciunas, Leonard, and Vesely may all be 2.5 guys rather than on seperate tiers. What do you think?
Then it would drop to Tier 3 with Burks, Walker, Fredette, Marcus Morris, Markief Morris, Singleton, K Thompson, Hamilton, Harris, T Thompson.
Then maybe 3.5 with Biyombo, Vucivic, Selby, Brooks, Faried, Motiejunas, Jackson.
Then everyone else in the 4th tier? I have a hard time putting Williams and Irving so far ahead of everyone else. Williams is solid, but has some defensive issues. Irving has already had Injury issues, and I dont know that he is that much better than Knight..