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Spot on minute by minute 9 player rotation/ stats
Posted by: Casey Webber on August 28th, 2012
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.Projected rotations
Minutes played/ projected stats
Mo 15 x 2 = 30 min 14 ppg, 6 asts, 1 stl, 2.5 rbs 39 % 3 pt fg
Foye 9 x 2 = 18 min 10 ppg, 4 asts, .8 stl, 2.5 rbs 39 % 3 pt fg
Burks 10 x 2 = 20 min 10 ppg, 3 asts, 1 stl, 2.5 rbs 34 % 3 pt fg
Hayward 16 x 2 = 32 min 13.5 ppg, 4 asts, 1.4 stl, .7 blk, 4.8 rpg 38 % 3 pt fg
Marvin 15 x 2 = 30 min 11.5 ppg, 2 asts, 1 stl, .75 blk, 5 rb, 38 % 3 pt fg
Milsap 14 x 2 = 28 min 14 ppg, .9 blk, 8 rbs, 50 % fg’s
Favors 15 x 2 = 30 min 14 pg, 2.5 blk, 11 rbs, 50 % fg’s
Jefferson 16 x 2 = 32 min 19 ppg, 2 blk, 9.5 rbs, 50 % fg’s
Kanter 10 x 2 = 20 min 7.5 ppg, 1 blk, 6.8 rbs, 50 % fg’s, 78 % free throws
Total minutes per game = 5 x 48 = 240 min
Collective player points per game = 113.5 ppg- games missed. Realize that players will be injured. Let’s say Kanter is out for half the season… He averages 7.5 ppg during his time in, but during his time out Milsap averages 22 ppg . . Well, that equals an extra 5-6 average points per game. And I’d put money on the fact that there will be injuries. Of course, I don’t mind the 4-5 guys deep on the bench getting scattered playing time because of injuries and late game scenarios, but their personal stats might just end up being non-factors .
Because injuries do happen in a season, I feel like my projected player ppg numbers are optimistic but realistic. What do you guys think averages will be? I personally would like for Corbin to stick with this 9 man rotation until someone gets injured. We have 9 strong players on the team. Why not give them all minutes? Especially since the young guys have so much potential.
Also please note: I realize Milsap is not a natural 3. However, I was only able to find him 14 minutes at the power forward and 14 minutes at the small forward. I would rather have him on the floor than not, and with Kanter deserving a few more minutes this year, along with the stacked front line “issue?”, there just aren’t enough minutes for him at the power forward. Some games Kanter may play less, giving Paul more time at the power forward. Some games Favors will get into foul trouble. Some games we will close with Milsap instead of Jefferson. This should help Paul’s mpg average. It could put it up to 30 mpg.
Starting Lineup to begin the game (7 min on floor together) -
Lineup evaluation- A fairly good mix of shooting, length, defense and offense. Players strengths cover up others’ weaknesses. Example : Hayward’s passing ability comes close to making up for Mo’s shoot-first mindset. Favors should help to balance Jefferson’s defensive liabilities.
Starting Lineup
Mo
Hayward
Marvin
Favors
Jefferson
Substitution # 1 with 5:00 left in first and third quarters (1 min on floor together )
Lineup evaluation- Milsap will check in early in the game to give the team a spark, and as Marvin is at times known to fade into the background, this should help the team to play smart basketball and finish the first quarter strong. To top it off, Milsap will only be required to play for two minutes in the first and third quarters (4 minutes total) at small forward allowing him to play 7 straight solid minutes at the power forward each half equaling 14 total minutes at the power forward.
Substitution 1
Mo
Hayward
MILSAP for Marvin
Favors
Jefferson
Substiution #2 with 4:00 left in first and third quarters (1 min on floor together )
Lineup evaluation- We all know Jefferson does not have the stamina to play for more than an 8 minute stretch. Corbin played him for stretches of 12 + minutes last season, which was a liability for the team’s defense as well as Jefferson’s ability to get a high percentage shot off. Kanter should bring a spark off the bench defensively and help the Jazz become one of the best rebounding teams in the League when paired up with Milsap and/or Favors. Hayward will be a secondary facilitator to Mo.
Substitution 2
Mo
Hayward
Milsap
Favors
KANTER for Jefferson
Substitution #3 with 3:00 left in first and third quarters ( 2 min on floor together )
Lineup evaluation- With Favors on the bench, defensively, this lineup could be a liability, but if Burks and Kanter make improvements on the defensive end this year, they could prove us wrong. We already know Hayward and Milsap, (usually) are at least fairly solid on the defensive end. The same goes for Foye. Offensively this lineup should flourish. Burks and Foye are both scorers and should open up easy shots for Milsap and Kanter by slashing to the basket. Burks and Foye should split the point guard duties with Burks slashing and passing out, while Foye will hang around the three point line for open looks and dishing it into the big guys down low.
Substitution 3
FOYE for Mo
BURKS for Hayward
HAYWARD for Milsap
MILSAP for Favors
Kanter
Substitution #4 with 1:00 min left in first and third quarters ( 5 min on floor together )
Lineup evaluation- This lineup should be better offensively than defensively. This will be a major part of Milsap’s 7 consecutive minutes at power forward in both the first and second halves equaling 14 min at power forward throughout the game. Although he deserves more minutes at power forward, there are just not enough minutes to go around with Favors and Jefferson competing for the rest of the minutes at the 4. Notice Jefferson plays the 4 when Kanter is in the game later on. Look for Milsap and Burks to be the 6th and 7th men with Foye right behind them as the 8th man to form a formidable offensive unit off the bench. These are important extended minutes for Kanter as well.
Substitution 4
Foye
Burks
MARVIN for Hayward
Milsap
Kanter
Substitution #5 with 8:00 min left in 2nd and 4th quarters ( 2 min on floor together)
Lineup Evaluation- Should help the team offensive with a fresh Jefferson to put in a few buckets to get ready to close the half. Lineup will struggle defensively, but a fresh Favors will be back in to close the game in 2 minutes
Substitution 5
Foye
Burks
Marvin
JEFFERSON for Milsap
Kanter
Substitution #6 with 6:00 min left in 2nd and 4th quarters ( 1 min on floor together )
Lineup Evaluation- Mo is a significant upgrade over Foye as is Favors for Kanter. This helps us offensively and defensively to prepare for the finish of the game. I really like this lineup, as it gives Burks the oppurtunity to slash and dish out to above average three point shooters in Mo and Marvin Williams. Hayward does well at the two, but he is not as capable of getting through defenses as Burks is.
Substitution 6
MO for Foye
Burks
Marvin
Jefferson
FAVORS for Kanter
Substitution #7 with 5:00 minutes left in 2nd and 4th quarters (5 min on floor together)
Lineup Evaluation- Depending on who is hot/ defensive matchups, we can close the game using various lineups. Below is just one lineup which helped minutes average out well and allows us to close using our strongest players.
For example: If we were playing Miami with Lebron at the 3, we would use Hayward/Marvin at the 3 to guard Lebron, put Burks/Hayward on Wade, and Mo/Burks on Chalmers. Because Burks is quick and has potential defensively, this is a possible miami vs jazz lineup used to close the game: Burks vs Chalmers, Hayward vs Wade, Marvin vs Lebron? Then again, Maybe Mo, Hayward, Carrol would actually stand more of a chance. I don’t know if Marvin can guard Lebron. he might not really be quick enough. Enough said. Fin
Substitution 7- Final Substitution-
Mo
HAYWARD for Burks
MILSAP for Marvin
Jefferson
Favors
Substitution 7b-
Mo
Foye- if he is hot
Hayward
Milsap
Favors
Substitution 7c-
Mo
Burks
Marvin
Favors
Jefferson
Substitution 7d-
Mo
Hayward
Marvin
Milsap
Favors
Replies: 32
Views: 919
32 Responses
Am I wrong? If we can get 19 pts out of AL in 32 min, that atleast leaves one third of the game, (16 min) for Favors, Milsap, and Kanter to get more involved offensively than they would with Jefferson in. What do you guys think? I honestly feel Jefferson might be effective enough defensively and especially offensively playing alongside Favors to justify keeping him on the court. I can understand cutting Jefferson down to 27-29 mpg, but I think the team has the most potenial gelling together, winning games, and making it through the playoffs with Jefferson getting 30-32 minutes, no more. This is the last year for us to make a playoff run with this deeply constructed team, so let’s use what we have and do it right.
I do not know if this is how Corbin will work things but it is a pretty good job! I just hope we can figure this out. I really really honestly believe this team is going to fall apart. We have WAY to many people playing in contract years. For some if they do not play it could be their career (Tinsley,Watson,Carrol) we are going to have drama from players not getting minutes, we are going to have drama from people not being happy with their “role” because Al gets the touches. There was all ready some rumblings at the end of last year about it.
We have also heard from every one of the C4 besides Kanter how they want more playing time this year or they are not going to be happy. We have not heard Hayward say more minutes but he wants a bigger role. Which they all deserve more minutes and better roles. We are not giving that to them. So we will see what happens this year. But mark my words if we do not do something to change this perception that we do not give a crap about how they develop we will lose them. Each and every one and then guess what? We are back to square one of having a lousy team.
If we have to live with Jefferson he does not deserve more then 25 minutes. What 5th best player on any team gets the majority minutes and majority touches??
Dallan- I understand where you are coming from with Jefferson. I wouldn’t be opposed to playing him 5 or so less mpg. If Corbin goes with the 9 man rotation, playing time will probably cause some drama with the bottom 5 players on the team. A few less minutes should equal to improved health for the top 9, and they need to be willing to cut a few minutes for the sake of the team. I would like to see how Burks and Foye can facilitate the offense together coming off the bench. I am open to giving minutes to Tinsley, Carroll, and Evans if one of our top 9 get injured and at the end of runaway games. I see Foye being a better alternative at backup point guard than either Tinsley or Watson when paired up with Burks.
I agree with everything here. Good Job.
Jefferson will not see less than 30 mpg. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up leading the team in mpg.
Jefferson’s stats will go up this year with our improved 3pt shooting. If we can park somebody (one of the Williams’ or Hayward) on the 3 point line, they can just wait for the pass from Jefferson. At that point we have a 35-40% chance to hit a 3 or a 50% chance Jefferson will hit a basket. I see him taking more shots because the double teams won’t come as much when we have threats sitting ready to shoot. I see him improving on his last year average by as least 2 buckets. 24ppg?? maybe 22?? I also see him having 4-5 assists a game just by passing it out to our improved shooters. (he averaged 2 last year).
At least, I very much hope that is the case.
I didnt didnt really give thought to the contract year. That actually is a huge factor. There are so many guys on this roster with expiring contracts that this team could turn into a bunch of individuals quick. And the vets arent going to be much help to a younger player with a gauranteed contract that is taking their minutes and job.
Excellent post Casey. Very well thought out. We need to forward this to Tyrone Corbin.
Only one problem: Jefferson CANNOT play the 4. That would be a disaster. He is way, way too slow. He can’t move laterally and is a poor defender. Opposing 4s would run circles around him. Opponents could just pick and roll us into oblivion.
Still, this is the best distribution of minutes and substituion patterns I’ve seen anyone come up with. Great post.
Also agree that Corbin needs to pick 10 players and stick with them. The guys on the end of the bench are lucky just to be there. There’s no way you can establish good court chemistry with 14 players coming in and out of the game.
I like your 9 man rotation. Earl Watson and Jamal Tinsley, as much as I love em, just don’t make the grade. They simply are not effective on the court anymore.
I think that’s too many minutes for Jefferson. I was really hoping we’d unload him before the season started, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen. I love the guy, but he’s deterring our development. I’d rather see him play 15 minutes off the bench and have us lose wildly at the hands of the young guys than have him play 30+ minutes and have us scrape into the playoffs to get swept. (Which really, we won’t lose tremendously if we play the young guys. We may even win tremendously. They’re some seriously talented kids.)
That being said, I think the only vets that should play a starting role a few weeks into the season are Mo and maybe Millsap. This season should be utilized by letting the core guys get their legs under them and show us what they’re capable of. Play the vets a bit early to get the confidence of the young guys up, then let the beasts loose. And I’m excited to see how Foye, Marvin and the rook (I always seem to forget his name) pan out. I think we’ll be surprised by the scoring prowess of the rookie. To lay down 50 is no small feat, even in college ball.
This site has become a joke.. Too many harsh, negative, and hateful comments. So many of the posters have quit commenting. Of the Jazzbots only David has commented lately. And at that very rarely. I look at the team having positive results this year. And yes the decisions will come from the Jazz brash and not from wantabees..
LK with his usual comments lol. ‘I’m Mr. Negative. Jazz brass are going to make the decisions. You all think you’re so smart.’
Let’s all not have any opinions and if we do, well, according to LK you shouldn’t share them. We’ll all just clap and cheer for the Jazz like mindless drones with no opinion on whether things are being done right or well or not.
Ok. Now to commenting on the post. Good breakdown. I keep coming back to this feeling that we are going to have to take a small step back in order to move forward. We’re relying on veterans, that, while currently better than our young core four, don’t have the upside and potential and raw talent level that they have. Jefferson over Favors (and maybe Kanter). Marvin Williams over Hayward. Foye over Burks. Mo Williams over…wait wait he’s better than Watson and Tinsley.
At some point, we’re going to have to let go of relying on veterans and just go with the young guys, give them the reins and let them run free. At that point, we’ll probably see a slight regression, but the future will be all the better for it.
That said, I’d like to see the first step in that regression-for-progression right now. And that is of course trading Al Jefferson for a future first round pick from a lower team or for a young promising rookie.
Not sure what is negative or hateful about anything on here
Also it is not like the “jazzbots” we’re posting a tremendous amount.
LK – I wouldn’t mind having some sort of moderater, to somehow regulate when people are name-calling, spamming, or generally being uncool … it would probably be a volunteer, it could be you!…not sure what anyone said that bummed you out so bad … As far as Jazzbots go, they sometimes write nice articles, but they aren’t smarter, more dedicated or more informed jazz/nba fans than most of the rest of us who come here to read and write…IMHO
KC – right on, Al must go to make room for Kanter and Favors … a future lottery pick would be awesome.
A moderator I have suggested many times. There are a lot of people who I am sure would volunteer for a couple of hours each week. KSL, DN, are very strict. SLTRIB you can say whatever you like and they do not care. We have had some back and forth, name calling and the next step is “I will meet you out in the parking lot at recess” type of thing. Intellegent basketball talk yes great. And yes everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But when it starts to get personal it sounds like a couple of forth graders. And yes Jazzbots are by no means any smarter.I have always been on the Big Al bandwagon. But with his salary and the need for Favors and Kanter to play I would join the group that says it is time to make a trade. Just don’t give him away. Let us see who is on the team the last of Feb. I also think it is time for Watson to be a coach.
Great Post. I would actually like to see Kanter/Burks give up 3-5 minutes a piece to see Jeremy Evans get a little action. All I can say is that I’m glad I don’t have Ty Corbins job this year.
@Colten why woukd Burks and Kanter give up time? That is crazy. We are trying to get them minutes and you want to take them away? I like Evans but unless a big is traded no way he gets any time. Which sucks
This probably took a lot of work. But did you add up the totals? The jazz averaging 113.5 a game? Have they ever averaged that much? With Corbin at the helm and our isolation offense, that seems a bit of a stretch.
Yeah… I dont see it LK. Jazz bots have good posts and alot of others have good posts. Most of the comments I just see as analytical or debate if it gets heated. But different strokes, different folks. This site is very good compared to the banter on other NBA blogs.
Great well thought out post, you should ask the Jazz to cut you a check.
I think the majority of posters are super positive and optimistic about the future…..the thing is, Jazz is a HUGE deterrent from that future. That bright future coyld start now but we have are feet set in the past so long as we keep Al and play him more than 20 minutes. The worse defender cannot get the most minutes and expect to win a championship.
I really think everyone needs to go look at the stats from Al 5 DNPs, even if they are just five games the numbers are remarkablely similar in games happening in 3 different months with about 30 days in between 1 and 2/3 and 4/5. Jazz defense held teams to under 100 point averages EVEN though the Jazz played a combined 3 OTs. In regulation, Jazz held opponents to 92.3 point averages!! That is not only good that is elite. Plus, Millsap had nearly a 30, 15, 5, and 5 game against the Lakers in LA against Gasol! You figure exchanging CJ, Howard, Bell, and Watson for Marvin, Carroll, Burks, and Foye—Jazz are a top 5 defense, AND a superior offensive upgrade from them.
Without Al, the only teams that have a chance of beating the Jazz are (1) Spurs, (2) OKC (3) Lakers. Thats it. The Heat would get destroyed by the Jazz. LBJ abused Durant, Harden, in the Finals, LBJ was their post presence, well Marvin is bigger than LBJ. Heat will be shooting jumo shots all day; Bosh guard Favors, ya right, whose gonna take Kanter?! Jazz just need to win the West and its championship time. Jazz are the worst match up for heat.
But if Als getting 34 minutes, I see the Mavs killing opening game: OJ Mayo and Collosin Kaman had one of their best games against Jazz last year, and Dirk usually goes off against Jazz. And its gonna all start with P&R guard penetration and kick or lay up.
Kanter looks ripped, and Burks looked strong in SL so I see 2 weeks into camp Al being exposed and Jazz trading Al with Houston who Lindsey has ties to. Fear not Jazznation, I have a good feeling about this trade and Jazz season.
Kanter does look ripped, holy smokes, the Turkish Bull !
Turkish Terror?
Turkish Tornado? Turkish Brick Wall? Let’s get a fitting nickname for this guy.
Kanter isn’t ready to play a ton of minutes. I think that 20 minutes a night would be great but some nights he may not get there.
@Zking even if we lose Al Kanter does not have to play more then 20. But if we do not lose Al there is no way he is playing 20 unless there are injuries. People said Favors was not ready at the first of last year and they are wrong. He was ready we just did not give him the opportunity
Hahaha @KC, those names sound awesome; sounds like a pro wrestler, which Im sure Kanter would love. Terror sounds the most menacing.
@Dallan agreed, I dont think Kanter can get 13 minutes with Al. Ya Kanter missed some D assignment at times, but the onky way to get over that is by playing through it. I dont ever recall someone backing down Kanter; they usually hit a wall and throw themselves in the air and Kanter gets a cheap foul. The refs gave Favors the same bad treatment until he got more consistent playing time. I think Kanter needs 20 minutes minimum. Like you said before Dallan, maybe Donatus Monteijunas can be that 4th big. He can be a stretch 4/5 which gives Jazz a different look, great passer as well. Id trade Al for Donatus straight up, but if you can stral a 1st round and another young player it would be a steal for the Jazz.
@Omar I agree. Either Burks is getting screwed on the fall down affect or Kanter will get screwed. I mean give Favors 32 Millsap 32 Kanter 22 Evans 10. How is that hard? It does not put anyone in a major bind. It allows Paul to play full time at the 4 and so then it works out for the wing positions and Burks could get good minutes!!
@Dallan agreed. I really would like to see Evans get some PT. I wouldnt mind Jazz signing Greg Oden to a 1 year deal to be the insurance 5th big. Or has he been signed?
Dallan, I certainly don’t want Burks and Kanter to “give up time”, but Evans has proven more than either of them that he deserves playing time. Of course Burks and Kanter have much more potential, and I would love for both to get 20 minutes, maybe even more for Kanter. Looking at this specific minute distribution I dont see anywhere else to get the minutes from. I think both Foye and Sap should get more. I guess we could just give Evans all of Al Jeffersons minutes, right?
Haha not all the minutes of Al. I honestly think we are over rating both Foye and Marvin. This is just my personal opinion but I am going to take some deeper looks in Synergy and see what I can see. I do not think it will be good for the team for Foye to play more then 15 minutes a game. I agree Evans needs to get time but how do you do it? You can not with out taking it away from one of the players that should get it more. If your a 1st round pick you should get more time till you prove otherwise.
@LK, since you hate the site so much, don’t come it anymore. The reason KSL has moderators is because it’s a HUGE site.
I don’t know the stats, but know for a fact that less than a thousand people read this site on a regular basis, and there are probably less than a hundred members.
Not everyone agrees with you, and I’m sorry that you’ve lived such a sheltered, drab existence that you can be shocked and appalled by silly debates on an internet forum.
Have you managed to live your whole life without being offended? You must not get out much.
And I’m sorry, but the Jazzbots are pretty worthless. Jazzaholic, David Smith and James Seaman are the only exceptions, and they rarely post, especially during the offseason.
I will agree with Patrick (who has not posted in a long time) “Nick dosen’t know Jack —-.
lol another brilliant play on my silly screen name. That really cuts deep, grumpy old man Larry.