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Which AK can we expect in 2010-11?
Posted by: David J. Smith on August 30th, 2010
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.We’ve seen two polarizing sides to Andrei Kirilenko in the past five years.
Many of us fondly remember the glory days of our own AK-47: the jaw-dropping 5×5 games, the timely help side defense, his long arms poking the ball away, some stellar assists, and the constant moving without the ball. He did things we didn’t think were possible. Andrei was a fantasy basketball stud. He was a surprise All-Star and blocked shots leader who was the heir apparent when numbers 12 and 32 rode off into the sunset. The max contract didn’t shock too many (although I think he wasn’t a full max player).
Unfortunately many of us also remember the horrific 2006-2007 season that saw a 7 point drop to a career-low 8.3 ppg, the precipitous drop in every statistical category, the total lack of confidence, and the infamous crying session in Houston. Likewise, the injuries started to mount.
The past three seasons have hovered between these opposite sides of the spectrum, as AK seemed to settle into a fourth or fifth option role. While the blocks aren’t anywhere where they used to be (mostly due to a permanent perch in the small forward position), he’s been consistently giving Jerry Sloan 11-12 ppg, 5 rpg, and 3 apg. Were it not for a bloated contract, many would be totally thrilled to have such solid numbers and play from our 3 spot.
So what should which Andrei should we expect this upcoming season?
I feel we’ll see something halfway: a more focused, free-wheeling Andrei who bests the last four seasons’ stats, but one who still won’t replicate what we did five campaigns ago. A few reasons why:
- When we signed Carlos and Memo half a decade ago, AK was instantly bumped many spots down the offensive pecking order. While he’ll get more touches early one with both out of the picture (at least until Okur returns), he’ll still be more of a secondary scorer behind Deron, Al, and most likely Paul.
- Still, I think he’ll be able to play better off of Al than Carlos. Jefferson is a true low post scorer who will open things up for the much improved outside marksmanship AK has exhibited the past few years. One thing to watch: Carlos was an underrated passer and Al has yet to show the aptitude to be a solid facilitator off double teams. AK learned from Matt Harpring how to constantly be running and Jefferson will need to deliver the rock to him.
- As he’s said many times, Kirilenko doesn’t thrive off off shots as much as he does touches. I see him resuming his familiar role as the second facilitator in our offense, relieving a lot of ballhandling pressure off Deron (and helping Gordon Hayward ease into it…someone I think will be yet another passer for us). He needs to be on the court when Ronnie Price is in, so as to provide some passing prowess.
- With no solid back-up behind Paul, AK will get more opportunities to play the power forward position. When doing so, what he lacks physically, he makes up for with his agility. His length and wingspan annoy the opponents, so I see a slight uptick in blocks. He loves to throw the element of surprise against opposing fours.
- Don’t underestimate the power of the “contract year.” No one, including Andrei (and hopefully Masha) expects another $17-$18 million pay day. He’ll still be working toward a nice contract and his stated preference would be to resign here. That always adds a spring in the step (see Boozer, Carlos; Dampier, Erick; James, Jerome).
- And also remember the flexibility his huge expiring contract provides. Should things not go as smoothly, other teams will still be looking to add someone of his stature and fiscal relief. If this is the case, it behooves both AK and Utah for him to play well. While I cannot predict what will happen, Kevin O’Connor would not be doing his duty if he didn’t field the calls that will be coming in all year long. My gut feeling is that Andrei stays, but that’s another blog for another day.
So all in all, I think we’ll see Andrei step up. His length and well-rounded game are integral to our overall success. When we went on our torrid run midseason, AK was the true catalyst behind our juggernaut. I think 13, 6, and 4-5 are realistic expectations. A more participatory and active Kirilenko makes us a true contender and one who can make some noise in a slightly weakened Western Conference.
Yet another reason to be excited for October…
What do you expect of AK-47? Thanks in advance for sharing your thoughts!
Replies: 17
Views: 8075
17 Responses
i think as long as he stays healthy he will return to the dominant ak we all know and love. The last couple years have been injuries and that problem with sloan. But I think that the problem with sloan has been resolved and I think he will be healthy to start the season. We cant win a championship without him, thats for sure.
I’m drooling over that video. And I believe if big Al can start pulling in double teams something Boozer never really did. It will open the floor for people like AK. If he stays healthy I can see him getting wild with the new guys. Raja Bell and Hayward will definitely benefit from a more active AK. I’d really like to see AK utilized in the 4th spot a lot this season too. He’s a battler and a fighter and he doesn’t see much of that at the 3. At the 4 he really seems to get attitude and play like an all-star. With the team so shaken up this off season I’m just excited to see what all players bring to the table. AK for one.
The best thing about AK is that he is the catalyst for making big scoring runs. He makes big steals and blocks on defense that lead to fast breaks that often change the momentum of a game. If he could only stay healthy all season. I’ll keep my fingers crossed
Next time you choose a video with music(?) could you choose one without the filthy language? I have kids who like to see the videos and read the articles. We will pass on yours next time..
@Larry…I am sincerely sorry. I didn’t watch the video with the volume all the way up and will edit it right away. My sincere apologies.
Easy there Larry, welcome to the Internet. It’s a place where anything can, and will happen.
I can assure you that David didn’t post that video knowing what the music was, call it … intuition.
PS. AK for 2011 All Star! Woot woot!
AK was great before his injury last year.
I was at the Phoenix game last year where we came back from 19. It was AK and Matthews that brought us back.
It seems like AK and Deron were finally finding their rhythm together before AK got hurt.
I forsee a pretty good AK that will sit out a lot of games with back problems. He will be over the calf injury, but he always had a sore or spasming back. I don’t see that just up and disapearing. When he does play I think he will be on more of the upside vs the downside. I just wonder how many games he will sit out again.
@David,JC Thank You. I guess I got caught up in all the violence the last few days. Jazz talk is the one good escape. This also is a much better forum. Too much trolling on the others to make it any good. Keep up with the articles. And may AK and Hayward be the X factor this year..
Rising like a sea serpent from deep waters to the zenith of globe denial, the lanky lad of the motherland shall yet reign victorious!
I’ve always felt that there was some unstated conflict between AK and Boozer, and now that Carlitos has gone and joined the Chicago Jazz, I think AK will have a stellar season. He’ll get more time at the four, block more shots, and be a bigger part of the offense, which will get his confidence and desire back.
Shala!
Barring major injury, and maintaining his health at 80-95% we will see a solid season from AK. I agree with the other posts saying more time at the four will be better for him. He needs his edge again, and with this being a contract year I bet he finds it.
I think the important thing is to keep Kirilenko healthy, simply because he’s had a few periods of injury status and he can be such an important catalyst for Utah that they need to probably keep his minutes reigned in.
However, even if he is playing less minutes than he averaged last year (before the injury), I think he can still be more productive per minute.
First, I think it’s important for him to keep honing his spot up shooting around the perimeter. After one game last season where Kirilenko was knocking down trey after trey, Sloan commented that Kirilenko was doing what he should be doing with the ball- shooting it, and not messing around with it. Kirilenko is not a ball handler, so he needs to stick to shooting, passing, flashing, and flushing. Those are his main offensive skills, and with Jefferson drawing more attention to his post-up game, Kirilenko could be the perfect compliment away from ball side(heck, even ball side sometimes). A lot depends on how well Jefferson fits into Utah’s system.
I think we can expect to see something near the following translations:
FG%: .506 –> about the same
3P%: .292 –> ~ .33
FT: .74 –> about the same
RB: 4.6 –> ~ 6
AST: 2.7 –> ~ 4
BL: 1.2 –> ~ 1.5
PT: 11.9 –> 13
Again, I’m not sure what his minutes are going to look like. If he’s playing the power forward position more often, we could see him getting more minutes, but Utah needs to see him healthy through a whole season + the playoffs. If Kirilenko gets injured again, we’re probably looking at Hayward having to step in, which wouldn’t be bad for his development as a future Jazz man, but that wouldn’t be the best situation for Utah obviously.
Great points all about AK’s tenuous injury history. He needs to be healthy for us to be productive the whole year. @Nathan–it looks like we’re thinking about the same on his numbers. Would love to see the 3FG and FT%s increase to 35-36% and 80%, respectively, as he definitely has the ability to do so!
David great points about AK, especially with the halfway remark you made. I agree with everyone also about AK just needing to be healthy. I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, without a healthy and confident AK the Jazz are a good, solid playoff team. With a healthy and confident AK, the Jazz are a contender. Some may disagree, but that run through last season in January to February was because of the emergence of AK. When Boozer has been out Deron has said with him gone he needed to provide more scoring. When AK’s been out, Deron’s said “we need him because I can’t do the things AK does.” Enough said! Can’t wait to see a game-deciding steal and/or block plenty of times this season from AK.
Great article again. Although AK is tall and lanky, he really does seem to flourish at the 4 and languish at the 3. Yeah, everybody’s right: as he goes, so go the Jazz.
This artical is great I also think AK will be sensational this season . Ak is one of my favorite players….
GO AK ..