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Breaking down the odds of GSW’s pick
Posted by: Henri on April 7th, 2012
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.Many people are missing the fact that if a lottery team ends with the ith worst record, which means being placed at the ith seed at the draft lottery ceremony, the odds of ending with exactly the ith pick are not 100 %. Far from that, especially if “your i” is small: for 1st seed (i=1), the odds of getting #1 pick are just 25%.
Now, as we all know, the jazz only gets GSW’s pick if it ends 7th or smaller after the lottery ceremony. The question is: what are the odds of the jazz getting GSW’s pick depending on GSW’s final record. Here is the breakdown you can calculate if you have a glance at wikipedia’s page (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery) … I know wikipedia is not 100% sure, but I’d trust it on that particular point. If GSW ends 4th or worse, they are sure to hold their pick. Here are the other cases beginning from the 10th seed:
- If GSW ends 10th, the probability of the jazz getting the pick is 96.1%
- If GSW ends 9th, the probability of the jazz getting the pick is 93.9 %
- If GSW ends 8th, the probability of the jazz getting the pick is 90 %
- If GSW ends 7th, the probability of the jazz getting the pick drops to 25 % … but is still alive !
- If GSW ends 6th, the probability of the jazz getting the pick is 4.1 % … wow
-If GSW ends 5th, we are down to 4%
So when the season ends, don’t launch fireworks too early or don’t be desperate, wait for the ping pong balls to bounce.
Replies: 14
Views: 555
14 Responses
Isn’t the pick only top 6 protected next season?
If so, and we miss out this year, we might actually get a slightly higher pick next season. It might be worth the wait, especially since this particular draft doesn’t really have many options at the positions where were really lacking the most, like point guard.
If we end up with our own pick this season, one rookie is probably enough (especially since we had two last year with Kanter and Burks).
Then again maybe the the Warriors will be pretty decent next season, and the pick won’t be worth much.
I really think the Warriors will finish ahead of New Orleans, Sacramento, Washington, New Jersey, Charlotte, and Toronto. It will be really close between them and Detroit.
We need to cheer for Golden State to win, and Detroit to lose, the rest of the way. If this happens, and the Warriors finish in the eight spot, the percentages will then be in the Jazz favor.
Yeah it’d be top 6 protected … I think the Warriors will be better balanced next year with Curry, Bogut, Thompson, Lee … and end up closer to the playoff spots. Enough talent for them to attract a high profile free agent also. Therefore, I’d say it’s now or never.
Oh…I forgot Cleveland. I think the Warriors finish ahead of them also. I think we will get the pick:)!!
I think the Warriors will finish 8th or 9th…either way, that’s a 90% or above chance we get the pick. Those are good odds.
Absolutely, I do think they’ll end up there. I read somewhere (2 weeks ago) that they were finding ways to bring their pîck back by any means. Well … we are open for trades if it’s worth it !
If we’re going to lose to a bad team at home, I wish it would have been Golden State instead of Sacramento and Phoenix, due to the circumstances. Hopefully the Warriors can string together some W’s
Jersey, Toronto, Detroit, are closest to GS. Jersey lost their center for the rest of the season so they will probably dip. They also need to be in the top three protected for their pick not to go to the Blazers. Detroit and Toronto need to lose. It would help also if the Kings lost. What would really help is if GS wins a couple of games..
If i have been told right it dosent matter where the Balls drop on lotto night.. its all about where they fall at the end of the season so if they end in the 8th spot… the jazz get the pick and if it moves into the top 7 picks they still get it when it is moved because of the lotto
@jason the two next year of PG do not look good at all if we are going to get one we need it this year
Warriors won tonight!
we’re going to have the GSW pick, and not ours, i’m cool with that, PO plus lottery, it’s like in a perfect world…… too much young is just…. too much
how can you give attention to two more rookies when you already have to find time to let shine Kanter, Burks, Hayward, Favors and co
Lottery, lottery, lottery, that’s all, I hear, will get who ever we get!
Oh yeah, so long he’s a Jazz Team Player!