Posted by: Henri on April 7th, 2012The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.
Many people are missing the fact that if a lottery team ends with the ith worst record, which means being placed at the ith seed at the draft lottery ceremony, the odds of ending with exactly the ith pick are not 100 %. Far from that, especially if “your i” is small: for 1st seed (i=1), the odds of getting #1 pick are just 25%.
Now, as we all know, the jazz only gets GSW’s pick if it ends 7th or smaller after the lottery ceremony. The question is: what are the odds of the jazz getting GSW’s pick depending on GSW’s final record. Here is the breakdown you can calculate if you have a glance at wikipedia’s page (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery) … I know wikipedia is not 100% sure, but I’d trust it on that particular point. If GSW ends 4th or worse, they are sure to hold their pick. Here are the other cases beginning from the 10th seed:
- If GSW ends 10th, the probability of the jazz getting the pick is 96.1%
- If GSW ends 9th, the probability of the jazz getting the pick is 93.9 %
- If GSW ends 8th, the probability of the jazz getting the pick is 90 %
- If GSW ends 7th, the probability of the jazz getting the pick drops to 25 % … but is still alive !
- If GSW ends 6th, the probability of the jazz getting the pick is 4.1 % … wow
-If GSW ends 5th, we are down to 4%
So when the season ends, don’t launch fireworks too early or don’t be desperate, wait for the ping pong balls to bounce.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.