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Overpaying Free Agents
Posted by: Jazzaholic on May 12th, 2012
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.Each summer, fans clamor for their team to sign a free agent.
2 years ago the Jazz gave UFA Raja a 3 year deal, which ended up 2 years too long and is still coming back to bite the Jazz in the rear.
Last year the Jazz picked up DeMarre Carroll for $500k, Jamaal Tinsley for $1.2m, Earl Watson for $2m, and Josh Howard for $2.1m. That’s 4 players who contributed a lot to the Jazz for about what 1 full Mid Level Exemption player would have cost. Nice job Kevin.
Frequently, what happens is the team overpays a highly hyped, high scoring player, who is very inefficient. GMs and fans are frequently sucked into the offensive side of the stats and forget about the other half of the game, the defensive possessions. They also forget about the efficiency of the players offensive game. A player who takes 40 possessions to make 30 points, is not nearly as good as the player only needing 20 possessions to make that 30 points.
The other thing frequently forgotten is the energy they bring to the game. The hustle plays. Those little things which don’t show up on the stat line. DeMarre Carroll is an example of a high energy player.
So, Kevin ended up with 4 contributors, who all have their flaws, but being overpaid isn’t one of them.
Restricted free agents are another problem. Usually the “other” team just ends up boosting the salary the home team has to pay, ties up their cap money for 3 days (was a week), and misses out on another free agent during the wait. The Jet played on a “Jazz” contract, with Atlanta, before being shipped to Dallas, all because he was a RFA.
The Jazz over paid Boozer to prevent Cleveland from matching. The Blazers tried with RFAs Millsap and succeeded with Mathews.
Then, the Bull signed Boozer on a sign and trade for maximum years and salary. See how that’s working out for them (can you say millstone?)
http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2012/05/11/boozers-teflon-makes-him-fan-target/?ls=iref:nbahpt1
Then you have the Max players. Usually older players, at, or past, their prime, but still putting up good offensive numbers. This is a group of elite offensive players, but they usually command a long 4-5 year contract. Depending on their starting age and history of injuries, this can be a make or break for a franchise. A boom or a bust. Warm weather destinations and large market teams could tie up a large amount of their team salary in a couple of franchise players and fill in with good veterans, willing to take a minimum, with the hope of winning a championship.
With the new CBA, which even the GMs and CBA gurus are still trying to understand, the landscape may have changed.
In 2012-13, the punitive luxury tax and restrictions kick in. Teams pay an incremental tax that increases with every $5 million above the tax threshold ($1.50, $1.75, $2.50, $3.25, etc.). Teams that are repeat offenders (paying tax at least four out of the past five seasons) have a tax that is higher still — $1 more at each increment ($2.50, $2.75, $3.50, $4.25, etc.). You can already see savvy owners, like El Cubano, refusing to sign players back from a championship team, in hopes of landing that one player, like Howard or DWil, to go with Dirty Dirk, and get under the penalty luxury tax. The result was an early exit for the World Champion Mavs. The Lakers’ tax bill in 2011 (when the tax was dollar-for-dollar) was about $19.9 million. Under the new system, being that far over the tax line would cost them $44.68 million. Since they were a repeat offender (paying tax at least four of the previous five years) they would owe $64.58 million!
If a team is in the luxury tax, the Mid Level Exemption, of roughly $5m, is gone, replace with a Mini Mid Level Exemption, roughly half of the MLE, or about $2.5m, making it tough to fill out the roster. This, of course, is good for the small market teams, who don’t want to go into the luxury tax.
Starting in 2013-14, teams more than $4 million above the tax level cannot receive a player in a sign-and-trade transaction.
The hope is that free spending teams like the HATED Lakers and the Mavricks will be on a little more even playing field. It remains to be seen, but there is hope.
It’s a little nebulous, with all the hold backs etc, exactly how much cap space the Jazz have, but wouldn’t it be interesting to float a toxic offer back to the Blazers for Batum? They intend to match any offer on him, because he is a restricted free agent. Wouldn’t it be fun to watch the Blazers payroll balloon much more than they planned on?
Jazzaholic
Replies: 17
Views: 1573
17 Responses
I like your posts because you always do your homework.. I will bet some team does exactly that with a Batum contract. The more the Blazers bleed the better. Don’t like to see players get hurt but it was hard not to crack a smile at the Blazers fortune last year.But then they will throw a toxic contract at Dragic for sure..
Giggle, giggle…It would be fun to watch.
I don’t know if the Jazz could scrape up the $8-$10m in cap space to watch the Blazers really sweat.
At least this year the Jazz don’t have any RFAs for anyone (the Blazers!) to try and poach.
Jazzaholic
Dragic is an UFA, I think, so Houston has to negotiate with his agent, like all the other teams, and can’t match the contract.
He is a great prospect. I can’t see a way for Kevin to pull that one off. I don’t think they will end up with too much over the MLE, if they pickup Jamaal and DeMarre.
Kevin’s best tool is the $10.8m Memo TPE over the summer for an existing contract/player in a trade. Only the teams $11m under the cap have that. So, that puts the Jazz in a pretty exclusive area to do a trade.
I would guess Kevin waits for the big free agents to sign and see who might fit, with a reasonable salary.
There’s always some pretty good talent kicking around after the 1st big flurry of overspending.
Jazzaholic
Yes you are right Dragic is a UFA so he will go to the highest bidder. A S&T would work with Rockets.I liked Dragic before the draft.
Yup L.K it would if we got Dragic we would address other areas of need. If we did a S&T we could ship Al and because they were going to lose Dragic anyway we could make them throw in another asset! I think they are the key to the Jazz off season..
Well if I were running things that is..
I agree that Dragic would be nice but if Dallan were running things we would only average 70 points a game. Trade Milly for Dragic and its a steal but we would need Kevin Martin to make up for the points we would lose by trading Al. Derrick Favors will not command a double team yet and more pressure on Paul would equal a lot less points for him.
Dragic averages 18 points per game when he was starting and getting the minutes. Lu’s an increase offensive production from the others. You guys always say that but just cause Al is nt here does not mean we lose the possessions. More efficient people will be shooting. And getting closer shots in the P&R
Dragic has to want to play in Utah. I’ve never heard that and I doubt Kevin will overpay. Then you have to have a trade Houston likes. So, a sign and trade would be unlikely. Too many things to come together at the same time.
But, I do like Dragic!
Which team(s) will offer him more than the MLE?
Jazzaholic
That would be great karmic revenge for the Jazz if we screwed them out of Batum!
But the thing that makes me the happiest is how terrible Carlos Boozer is playing. Fans in Chicago HATE him! As they should. Man signed a max 5 year $75 million offer with the Bulls, and is truly dragging that franchise down.
“It’s all that matters, yo!!!” is now an internet meme. Boozer continues to be a greedy, egotistical, passionless player. The last time Boozer’s heart was in the game was in Utah in 2005-06.
But the sad thing is, Boozer still wins, because he “got a raise regardless.”
Boozer wins + Chicago loses = Jazz win.
Jazzaholic,
I can guarantee you that portland gives him much more than the MLE. I would bet on them as his landing spot.
Ya Portland has said they want him, but also Nash and also D-Will. It mind depend on if they decide to go after the others first we could snag him early
But do not be surprised either if Houston trades Lowry and resigns Dragic and looks for a backup. Wich we could throw Watson in the deal with Jeffersn and then they would have to give is some more pieces.
I’ll go against the grain – don’t think Dragic will turn out. You can all hang this over my head later, but he had a great playoff series in Phoenix then didn’t do so hot and got flipped for Brooks (who’s now in China heh). Since then he’s been off the map till Lowry went down which meant he wasn’t scouted much.
*Suns on a side note have not been extremely wise in their signings/trades in the past couple years – Turkoglu (the Michael Jordan of Turkey), Childress, Carter come to mind, obviously the Brooks trade was dumb but there had to be some reason they didn’t want Dragic.
I think when teams focus scouting on him they’ll be able to shut him down. Maybe we can convince Houston to keep Dragic and steal Lowry…
Our team is at a weird stage – before we make huge personnel changes I would like to see us keep our main guys (unless we get some screamin’ deal) and see how they progress. Our team is super young and only has one full season together, one that didn’t include a training camp, summer league or preseason. Bail on all our players after we got beat by the top, most experienced team in the west? A little extreme especially after how much we exceeded expectations.
even if would love to try Batum……. like i already said, he will stay a Blazers like he told to french listeners on the Tony Parker radio show in france some weeks ago, Blazers will rebuild on him, wes and aldridge, the guy was always loyal, Portland is his first team and he respect that, especially with what happened with false rumors on his draft……. and if by accident, he leave portland, it will be for a ring opportunity maybe with Tony and and Boris, and certainly not for a big paycheck, first of all he is a competitor……………. so sorry, but we’re not on his agenda, not even to make portland pay more
I think it would be hard to get a C or PF to come to Utah, but not a PG. This team is PG heaven by next year. Kanter and Favs will be more offensively solid,so 4 bigs for options to pass to for easy assists. We should also have some outside shooting options by next year, or we failed the off season.
Ahhhh, Boozer the Businessman…YO!!!
I wasn’t really counting on getting Batum, just screwing with Portland and fouling up their salary schedule for years to come.
I’m more of a let the kids develop, and wait a year for a big move.
I’m not in favor of extensions, especially on RFAs, since they hold a 3 day right of refusal on the player, if they don’t extend.
On a player, who is not a Super Star, top 5-8 player, why offer an extension, unless they are willing to give you a discount, like Memo did or AK would have. (Memo was a mistake in retrospect, AK never went there, which was best for the Jazz)
When Big Al, Millsap and Harris end their contract, the Jazz can still resign them themselves, or do a sign and trade with a non-luxury tax team for a player(s) they prefer.
Also, that’s $30.5m coming off the books for what will be a fantastic free agent market. That’s a couple of MAX players to go with the young core!
Jazzaholic
Nice article on overpaying players.
http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-am-are-the-bulls-lakers-knicks-stuck
Jazzaholic