Meet
Trade Probability…Not Very High
Posted by: Adam on January 21st, 2013
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.I want a trade just as much as the next person and I feel that losing now to create better wins in the future is worth it. I think we need to give the young guys more minutes and I feel that there are worthwhile trades out there that can make us better in a different, more beneficial way. However, the probability of the Jazz making a trade soon are not very high at all.
You may retort with these accusations: “Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson, and Mo Williams are in the final year of their contracts, there must be a trade.” “The Jazz aren’t stupid, they must know what’s at stake.” “We have to get something through a trade or we’ll end up with nothing when Free Agency rolls around.” While these are good, logical reasons for a trade and in most cases a team would trade a player in order to respond beneficially to the situation, but I am convinced that as long as the Utah Jazz are doing well, Kevin O’Connor, Greg Miller, and Dennis Lindsay will not make a trade.
The Jazz are seventh in the West right now with a record of 22-19. They are just a few steps behind Denver (the 6th seed) and not out reach from Golden State (the 5th seed). They’ve won three games in a row and have won seven games out of their last 10. This final half of the season is laden with home games (we’ve won 13 of 17 in SLC). Favors is doing very well, Millsap has been on a role of late, Jefferson is just normal, Foye is hot as crap!!! In essence, the Jazz are doing better than last year (in the eyes of the front office). Therefore, there’s no reason to trade our players.
They Jazz front office is so concerned about mediocre winning in the present that they will not sacrifice for spectacular winning in the future. As long as the Utah Jazz continue to play well and have a winning season, there will not be any trades made to improve our team in the future!!!
Replies: 23
Views: 650
23 Responses
Yep. 4 first round playoff eliminations > 1 championship season in the eyes of the front office.
Adam, I don’t really want a trade. My posts have been hypotheticals to the inevitable move that is looming. I think we have the most depth we have had in years. If Millsap would realize that he would benefit the team coming off the bench (knowing that he will not start on most rosters) and if we could make Al and his $16 mil contact rebound and play defense, there wouldn’t be any real need besides a more sufficient backup to Mo and a steady replacement while he is injured.
Think about it, when DWill was here we were only deep at the PF position. Now we finally have depth in every position besides PG but we are looking to move either a strong PF or talented C. We better land a legit PG if we bother making a trade
Nick, what would realistically make us a legitimate championship contender? Hypothetically, if we were to get CP3, do you think he, Burks, Hayward, Favors, Kanter, Evans, and Carroll could win a title?
I think chemistry for a few seasons rather than blowing up our roster every year would help
I, first of all, believe that the FO is more intelligent than we often give them credit. They have the problem of resigning our C4. Something will happen with Al or Paul or both, this year. They are just too costly, from a business point of view. Trading them for an equivalent salary doesn’t make much sense. We need a young PG
I, first of all, believe that the FO is more intelligent than we often give them credit. They have the problem of resigning our C4. Something will happen with Al or Paul or both, this year. They are just too costly, from a business point of view. Trading them for an equivalent salary doesn’t make much sense. We need a young PG obviously and I would say a young SF, like James McAdoo. I don’t know if I spelled that right. I see keeping Mo to help a future transition. We will also need a journeyman center as backup. I don’t know if we trade or just wait for contracts to expire. That’s FO’s call.
The thing is, Jazz have won ZERO games against West teams with winning records on the road!! Thats horrible!!
Jazz have only teams 5 wins against teams with winning records (Houston, Denver, Spurs, @Nets, Heat). Out of 22 wins.
Jazz have played 14 games against West teams with winning records, Jazz are 3 wins 11 loses. Jazz have about 15 games against West teams with winning records the rest of the way and like 12 games against East teams with winning records—thats like 27 games against teans with winning records. If the trend continues, Jazz go maybe 7 wins and 20 loses; thats means Jazz would have to go about 12 and 4 against teams with losing records just to end up 42 and 42—which I dont think is good enough for 8th. Jazz need about 45-47 wins to make playoffs.
If Lindsay is a numbers guy, he cant miss that Jazz are a horrible team against teams with winning records. Jazz dont make a move, they sacrifice the future and wont make the playoffs considering the winning teams Jazz have to play.
Jazz have had 20 games against teams with winning records:
Jazz are 5 wins and 15 loses.
As of now, Jazz have 26 games against teams with winning records in 2nd half of season. Thats 6 more games against winning teams than 1st half!!
And those 26 games do NOT include Dallas, Lakers, NO, Suns—teams that give Jazz trouble, so actually 2nd half of roster is harder for Jazz.
So do you sacrifice the future so Jazz could probably not make the playoffs AND lose Al and Sap for NOTHING?! Thats a bad game plan.
The Jazz have some issues, especially looking beyond a winning regular season or a post-season-qualifying regular season. The biggest is that we have no superstar. On any given night against a team WITH a superstar, we have a tough matchup problem. Our recipe for winning is basically to try to contain the non-stars, try to gain ground against them with our usually deeper bench. Al is our closest thing to a go-to guy, and we all know his defensive deficiencies and that he’s just not great against top tier defenders. Millsap can make some plays and Hayward can make some plays, but they aren’t in the realm of superstardom like say a LeBron or Kobe or CP3 or Durant or Harden, etc.
What the Jazz need to do, if serious championship contention is their goal (I’m leery that it is–I see the FO being fine with making the playoffs, whether we have a real shot at beating our opponents or not), then the Jazz HAVE to find a superstar. Look how aggressive the Nets were. Yeah, they struck out on Carmelo. They struck out on LeBron. They struck out on Dwight (or did they??). But they DID get D-Will and then traded depth and future picks, and overpaid to keep their good players? Are they contenders yet? No, but look at the huge leap they made from where they were. Same with the Rockets. They basically were desperate for a true star to build around. They ditched good players to get a great one. And while they aren’t championship contenders this year, they ARE improved over past versions and have a lot of youth that is still developing.
The Jazz….well we’re not really focusing on developing our youth, even though a superstar might be hiding inside some of our young guys if given enough development time. We’re not aggressively pursuing a superstar. We’re not bad enough to draft a superstar. We’re basically caught in the swirling maelstrom of mediocrity. I’m just not sure what the Jazz do next. If we don’t make a trade to upgrade one of our positions to at least an ‘All-Star’, I don’t really see how we can improve as a team.
To me, the ceiling of our team right now is 6th, 7th, 8th seed. Basically a first round and out, with a crap draft pick as reward. And with Ty as coach, I’m referring to the starting veterans, all of which are on one-year deals. Al, Paul, Marv-Will, Foye and Mo-Will. Those guys aren’t getting any better. To me, the smart move would be to move those guys for an upgrade at a position. First, a proven star. If not available, move them for a young player with star potential. If not available, move them for picks that have the potential to win the lottery and which could become a star. To stand pat is to just stay on this path of mediocrity.
I think it depends on what the front office thinks it can get from free agency next year. The front office understands that expiring contacts are worth a lot and they know that next year we are not going to be able to bring everybody back. If the Jazz think they cash get someone with several years left on their deal that they wouldn’t be able to get in free agency, they will make a move. If they see people coming up in free agency, they will wait until the off season. I’d prefer a trade, but ask excited to see the team next year either way.
Great point, KC. They DO need a superstar and it will be difficult for them to get one.
With all do respect KC, I disagree with you. I think we are only a star point guard away from being a top tier team.
I think Jamaal and Earl are great guys, and they give their best, but if we had Jose Calderon, we would be hovering around the 3/4 seed.
Go back and watch any of the previous games while paying attention to the movement off the ball. Hayward, Foye, Millsap, and Favors are all open on back cuts and curls so often it is infuriating to see how little they get the ball. Our pgs do a good job of limiting mistakes, but if we had a real starting pg, he would be making those passes.
Our defense lately has been solid with the exception of allowing an isolation at Tinsley or Earl. Big Al has improved greatly at edging the ball-handler in the pnr.
@Andy – Glad you disagree. I totally agree that Jose Calderon would be a huge upgrade over Tinsley/Watson. He can score and pass. It’s a trade I have hoped for for a long time. Backup PG is our weakest position, and I think the same as you…that our young guys would benefit a TON from guys who can actually make a pass without being a liability on offense or on defense.
However, lets look at the PGs we’ll be facing in the West on the top teams. Tony Parker. Westbrook. CP3. All three of those guys are better than either Mo or Calderon. Rotations shorten in the playoffs and the best players often see 40+ minutes a game. And I’d argue those teams have very good depth at PG too, with Gary Neal / Patty Mills on Spurs, Bledsoe and Billups on Clippers, Maynor on the Thunder….My point is, come playoff time, your bench is no longer a strength because the other team just doesn’t play their bench much. How do our starters do against other starters? Oh yeah, they dig us holes that our bench has to bail us out of. So I think a 3-4 seed from our current position by just upgrading Calderon is a bit high. I still think its the right move to improve the team, but if we really want to be in title contention we have to trade for, develop, or draft a superstar type guy.
@Andy – I agree with your assessment of the Jazz being a star point guard away from being very competitive, but I don’t think Calderon would get the job done. I think we need a top flight facilitator like Rondo.
I’m going to take you up on one point Adam, I don’t think the front office are more concerned about mediocre winning and getting a place in the playoffs over trying to develop the young core into a winnable unit for the future. I think they want to do both, and if they get the trade that suits they will pull the trigger. Everyone knows, FO included, that since the day Dwill left the Jazz have been needing a PG, but they haven’t been that many great ones available, certainly not of the class that Utah has been fortunate to have in the past. Now with the injury to Mo Williams it is imperative that the Jazz get a good PG in if they can. A trade for one of our big guys for an inefficient PG would send us backwards. As would a trade involving one of our bigs for another player causes us to have a logjam on another position within our roster other than PG.
The Jazz have made it clear they don’t want the core four to get into the habit of losing hence they got rid of our most inefficient players and kept the better players here even if it meant minutes were hard to dish out.
The Jazz would probably do a trade involving Jefferson for Calderon in a heart beat, more minutes would be available for 3 of our bigs and it would address our PG situation for a few months at least and failing a sensational bid for Chris Paul in the summer with the expiring contract situation could be a stop gap at PG next year too. However we don’t know what Toronto want, if the Jazz can even offer it, or if we can get another team involved. The sad fact is the Jazz need a good efficient PG, something that few teams have a spare of and few teams are willing to give up.
Calderon isn’t a star PG but he could run the offense when MO is injured without the team being vulnerable in his absence and he would be a huge upgrade on our backup PG’s enough that we should get a few extra wins throughout the season, especially if the younger players improve their game with extra minutes. I like Bledsoe but with his situation at LA its hard to know if he is what we need here in Utah. A lot of the other PG’s that people mention in these forums are badly inefficient and as much as I like to complain about Jefferson lack of defensive effort or his offensive inefficiencies against good defensive teams it is a better option running down his $15m contract a few months longer than taking on a poor PG in his place.
I want to see our players of the future grow. But I don’t want trades to happen for the sake of a trade that gets them minutes but make us worse as a team with less maneuverability in the summer. The Jazz never have had this kind of maneuverability, other teams put themselves in this situation and make big trades happen as a result and the Jazz have always looked on in envy. If the team can’t get the PG that is going to at least make us as good with Jefferson and Millsap in the team why do a trade now? There are two other teams that are set up with big cap room this offseason, the Hawks and Dallas. Dallas are going to be aggressive but they have one great, but aging often injured player. Whats the incentive for players going there? There is one player that is seen as untradeable and the rest are expendable that’s not a team that screams Championship no matter what Cuban may say with his cheap Texan taxes.
Even if we lose Al and Sap for nothing like Omar brought up, that’s cap room space to go get other players. Is that going to happen? Unlikely. Even when it looked like the Jazz were losing Boozer for nothing the Front Office did a deal with Chicago that got them a trade exception that enabled them to go get Big Al from Minnesota. Just one instance where we lost an important player for what should have been nothing and got something. Teams try not to screw one another over, they work with one another so that they can work again on another trade in the future.
Ya, I understand that point. Our bench will not be as big a factor come playoff time.
Would you consider Pau Gasol a superstar? David Locke said this morning it wouldn’t be absurd to see the Jazz trade Millsap & Marvin for Pau. He isn’t the pg we need, but is arguably the best passing big man in the league. I think I would take this trade in a heart beat even if it meant helping out the hated Lakers.
I would commit suicide if I saw Paul Millsap in a Lakers jersey and Pau Gasol in a Jazz jersey.
Trading Al and Paul expiring contracts for Gasol’s $19million leaves us with less contract room to go get a PG. Gasol is a good player but he’s at LA he was never the star he was the complimentary piece that made it easier for the star and made the star look better. The problem with Al in a Jazz uniform the last couple of years was he was seen as a our best player. He was brought to the Jazz to fill in the hole left by Boozer’s departure but he was supposed to play under Deron. When Deron departed Al was promoted to best player because there was no one else ready to step up.
Gasol is a little bit better than Al, but he is also more expensive, and short of getting a PG that compliments his game, which we would still need, the Jazz aren’t going to improve that much. Having Gasol here would make it difficult to improve the Jazz at the PG position without exchanging some players here for cheaper contracts. Right now we have good depth at every position but PG, and are overloaded for Big guys but if the Jazz were to make a play for a Gasol and still try and make a play for a PG then we are going to lose some of our depth. Look at the Lakers, the Lakers thought with Kobe, Nash, Gasol and Howard that they were championship contenders, but not only is the chemistry not working out for them yet their lack of depth is killing their season.
Everyone here is complaining that Tinsley and Watson are not the answer for PG, and I’ll agree with that, but both are better than Ronnie Price. They might not have much individual offense but I don’t want to go back to days when we have players like Price and Fesenko on the roster just so that we can get a star name here whose game is on the decline.
@Nick lol I think I would puke at least on seeing Millsap in a Laker jersey, taking orders from Kobe.
I like Pau, probably my favorite Laker. I just don’t think he would work well next to Al.
Looks like the Grizz and Cavs have got the trade ball rolling. Now let’s see the domino effect..
@ LK Andersen I havent heard anything on Grizz and Cavs . What has happened if you dont mind tellin me .
I also would like to say that we are in need of a good pg to at least back up Mo . And I do beleive that we need a star player too . I dont know any team that has had success in the playoffs with out any star player ( mayb someone may know of one or more , but I have never heard of it happening ) . So hence I agree on getting a star player .
Look at Hoopsworld.com. Look at a few years back when Pistons won the title. Good solid players but no star. They also beat a way over confident lakers team..
The 2004 Pistons is the ONE exception from like the past 30 years of a starless team winning it all. Chauncey Billups played really really well during their run too.
A lot depends on what is a star player. If it is making the all star game forget that. Ming made the all star game every year despite only playing in a handful of games his last three years.Popularity contest. Money?? Al makes star money.. I would say it would be someone close to the MVP.
Looks like the trade mode is in the denial system. All teams are not claiming anything. I think by the trade deadline D Howard will be a Net. Nets would like to make a three way with Love going to the fakers,Lopez to Wolves. Wolves will say Love is far more valuable than Lopez. I would agree. The only way the Wolves give up Love is for P. Gasol. Problem is Nets and fakers have so much money tied up in their top 3-4 players they have no other assets to trade.I also think by the deadline that Bargs, and one of Lowery/Calderon will be traded. Bobcat scouts tell the team to trade out of the first round. Kemba and pick anyone?? I also think AL will be traded..