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Fantasy Basketball – Who Dat?
Posted by: JC on September 17th, 2010
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.I’m not going to pretend to be a seasoned pro that knows everything about how to play, draft, or talk Fantasy Hoops.
But today, I’m going to do my best to layout some early rankings and predictions on who will be available where, as well as some basic theory behind the game itself.
Theory
First question:
Which categories will be used in your league?
This is the most important ideal to stand by. If you’re the commish, and you use too many, and you’ll end up canceling out a lot of the categories; should you use too few, nothing matters anymore – it becomes a yawn fest.
Some standards to follow and to do your research by would be:
Points scored
Rebounds
Blocks
Steals
3-pointers
Assists
Field goal percentage
Free-throw percentage
Okay, now you know your league settings and you’re ready to go, right? Let’s do this then … wait, wait, wait, wait, wait! Where you gonna draft? I mean, what is your draft position!??! While it’s safe to do general research before knowing your draft position, I feel it is always best to go into things with a strategy, knowing who you’ll be targeting and who you value over other people at these said draft intervals.
(Early) Rankings
TOP TIER (1-15)
Kevin Durant – SF
Chris Paul – PG
LeBron James – SF
Dirk Nowitzki – PF
Kobe Bryant – SG
Deron Williams – PG
Danny Granger – SF
Dwight Howard – C
Pau Gasol – PF/C
Stephen Curry – SG/PG
Dwayne Wade – SG
Carmelo Anthony – SF
Steve Nash – PG
Gerald Wallace – SF/PF
Tyreke Evans – PG/SG
Some guys that you can find on the cusp of the top tier would be: Jason Kidd, Brook Lopez, Josh Smith, Brandon Roy, Amare Stoudemire. Taking a look at Amare’s team, I’d be prepared to move him up a bit higher in this list as D’Antoni’s teams can really boost stats for players (see: David Lee).
From here on, let’s do a little bit of a “buy”, “sell”, or stay even with them in regards to their listed ranking…
MID TIER (21-35)
David Lee – SELL!
* GS Warriors are in flux, he’ll be the big guy and board, but I’d be surprised if he’s a 20/10 guy again. Monta and Steph Curry will be using too many shots for him to really assert his “game” (or lack thereof).
Rajon Rondo – BUY!
* Rajon may have left Team USA prematurely, but he strikes me as the kind of player that uses that sort of “rejection” and puts it to good use. Look for him to put on a show and carry the Celtics.
Chris Bosh – even…
* One of the “Big 3″ is going to under-produce, there just aren’t enough possessions in a game. I’m picking Bosh to be that guy. He may get some boards and assists, but his points will dip.
Monta Ellis - SELL!
* If my David Lee prediction proves to be false, it’s because Monta Ellis is being shown the door. Okay, Monta Ellis may be shown the door anyways this season. (IMO).
Russell Westbrook – BUY!
* After a great Team USA showing, lookout for Mr. Westbrook.
Joe Johnson – SELL!
* Sure his contract was big, but his delivery in the playoffs was sub-par. I’m taking it as a sign of decline from Joe.
Andre Iguodala – SELL!
* Didn’t they draft Evan Turner?
Chauncey Billups – SELL!
* Old man playing too much ball in the summer months=old man playing too many minutes over the course of the season.
Stephen Jackson – SELL!
* He plays for Charlotte, enough said.
Al Jefferson – BUY!
* Al will tear it up under the hoop this year. When this train gets going, get out of the way!
Tim Duncan – even…
* Father Time, as I like to call him, will produce, but at another year below his career averages. Keep an eye on his FT% should you choose to select him.
Carlos Boozer – BUY!
* I’ve always been a Boozer-Believer, and I believe he will have a hay-day in Chicago with DRose.
Al Horford – SELL!
* I guess I’m just not too high on the Atlanta Hawks and their new head coaching choices.
Paul Pierce – even…
* Paul is aging, the Celtics are aging, don’t draft them too high in your leagues!
Darren Collison – BUY!
* Darren Collison will have a phenomenal year alongside Danny Granger. I’d push him to the top in PG’s taken in the second round of your drafts (aside from the peeps in the list previous).
Some good value to be had just outside of this group in: Zach Randolph, Antawn Jamison, Andrea Bargnani, Aaron Brooks, and Marc Gasol. Take a look at that group, a couple of them are slated to be “the guy” on their team. Antawn Jamison, who else will be taking the load for the Cavs? Bargnani is setup to take on the nay-sayers in regards to his number one draft ranking. Aaron Brooks could end up playing 40+ a night for that Rockets team, which isn’t a bad thing.
Spotlight on 3
Let’s take a step back from the player rankings and look at a few guys that could really shine this year (meaning, you should keep an eye out for them!).
Brandon Jennings: surrounding an explosive 2nd year guy with savvy veterans is never a bad idea. Will he have to score 55 points in many games this year? No. And while his scoring could take a dip, look for his other intangibles to rise up – i.e. assists, steals. Jennings is currently hovering around #60 in predraft rankings, putting him in the possible 4th-5th round come draft time.
Paul Millsap: Paul is in an interesting situation. The national media seems to have pegged him as the backup PF for the Utah Jazz. Problem is, Al Jefferson will likely be the starting center for the Jazz all season long (can you really picture Mehmet Okur storming back into a starting role on this team?), this would leave the starting PF spot to Mr. Millsap. His scoring will remain to be up and down, but should you need rebounds, blocks, or FG%, consider taking Paul Millsap around the 5th-6th rounds.
DeMar DeRozan: DeMar had a huge summer league this year putting up 21 ppg in 26 minutes to go along with 58% FG shooting and 40% 3PT FG’s. Will it be the DeMar and Bargnani show in Toronto? Why not? What else are they going to do? While currently not in the top 150 of several sites, stash him away for later in your leagues draft.
(Edits made)
Replies: 9
Views: 2249
9 Responses
Could you repeat that??
I don’t agree with some of your choices. Stephen Jackson because hes on Charlotte? He killed me last year when playing against him, he was one of the main go to guys. Aaron Brooks not even mid tere? I know Houston has made a lot of changes, but he was easily one of my best players for a couple of weeks in a row. I didn’t even see Manu Ginobli on your list. He came out tearing it up, he did get injured but still scored like 40 and i believe that was after he got his nose broke. Howard is your only true center on the list? Bogut is coming off injury, if hes able to play hes going to be a go getter. Kaman also started doing major work last season, winning western conf player of the month or of the week a couple weeks in a row. He was Scoring like 25-12 for awhile. There a few others that provided other stats but would be further down the list as I imagine is why they werent included. Glass Camby had many games with nearly 20 rebounds and 4+ blocks. Yao if healthy will be another nice addition at C. The first rounders are obvious, but once they are done, I think a solid Center is your best bet and taking a pretty good guard or forward. A center that doesnt produce is worth nothing and there are a lot of worthless big men out there.
I like Bogut; I’m on the Bucks bandwagon big time. I’m feeling like Brandon Jennings becomes “elite’ish” this season.
… I’m with you on Kaman and Camby, but I’m not feeling them in the first 35 or so prospects.
Yes, because he will be at Charlotte all year he will be cursed. I’m calling it the reverse-MJ curse; more on that in another blog.
I like Darren Collison more than Aaron Brooks, call it … instinct.
I’ll be honest, fantasy football kicks fantasy basketball’s trash. It’s not even close. I played both for several years in the past, but now I just stick to fantasy football and don’t bother with fantasy basketball.
I hate fantasy football, at least the league im in now.
Collison and Brooks is tough. Collison is playing for in my opinion a team with less to work with. Therefore his numbers should go up. Brook was amazing last season but has some good talant built around him which will cause his numbers to go down. I can see your point there. Kaman Camby is tough. I think it depends on how many people play in your draft to see how many players are taken in the first few rounds.
Jackson will always be one of those fence calls if you make it and he does great your a genius, if he falls short everyone will mock you. Kind of a 50/50 call.
Theres also Jamison and Mo williams. With no LBJ they should become the main scoring options. Gibson will probably make a come back and Coach Scott is huge improvement for a coach.
Rudy Gay is also another possibility. I’ve never been much of a Rudy fan, he did make the FIBA team though.
Matt- What league are you playing in? It’s only in the second week and you hate it already? If you aren’t at NFL.com for fantasy football, that’s the problem right there.
my friends set it up at espn. Last year i did the NBA Yahoo league. I just enjoyed the greater flexibility. I have good players that cant play, in basketbal you still had extra slots for players of any position. Could be the format or could just be FFB in general im not sure.
Adam, I agree. NBA season is long to follow for Fantasy BBall, I have no idea how people can do MLB fantasy stuff (even longer).
But… I find myself playing bball anyways (on the fantasy angle).