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Efficiency Stats On Our 3 Highest Scorers.
Posted by: Steven on January 9th, 2013
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.The 3 highest scoring Jazz player are Jefferson (16.7pts a game), Millsap (14.6 pts a game) and Hayward(13.7pts a game). But who is the most efficient?
Jefferson makes 247 of his 526 attempts thus scoring 496 pts on those attempts, (2 3 pointers on the season). But for a big guy he has a very efficient stroke at the line. He has made 90 of his 105 attempts from the free throw line, thus bring him up to 586 points on the season.
Millsap shoots far less than Jefferson, but plays less minutes in his favoured position in the rotation when he has a man named Favors to accommodate. Whereas Jefferson will stay on the floor for a couple extra minutes, Millsap will make way for Favors or move to another position to accommodate a 3 big rotation. By contrast Millsap has only had 403 attempts and has only made the basket on 192 of those attempts. However a few extra of those than Jefferson’s have been 3 pointers therefore those 403 attempts tally up as 396 points. Millsap isn’t quite as efficient a free throw shooter as Jefferson. Jefferson’s free throw rate is at the 85% level, Millsap’s this season is only at 71% per cent level, all the same Millsap has gone to the line 179 times already this season and scored on 128 of those times. Millsap therefore has scored 524 points on the season so far.
Hayward get less minutes on the floor than both Al and Paul. Al gets 32.6 minutes per game. Paul 30.3, and Hayward just 26.5 minutes per game on the season. However when you consider he has 6 minutes less on the floor than big Al he compares fairly well on the points scored. So far he has shot 374 attempts making just 161 of those attempts. His efficiency is quite a bit down on Millsap and Jefferson. Millsap has an efficiency rating of 47.6%, which is quite a bit down on his almost 52% career average, but he has at times had to make way for Favors and move to a different part on the floor this has maybe messed with his shot, Jefferson 47%, whereas Hayward has an efficiency rating of 43%, again a little down on his 45.5% career average. Again like Millsap, Hayward is attempting and making a lot more 3 pointers than Jefferson. His 161 baskets equate to 366 points. Hayward is also a 83% free throw shooter and has made an additional 127 points on 152 shots at the free throw line. Bringing his point total for the season to 493 points.
Game stats will tell us that Jefferson is our key scorer at 16.7 points per game. However Jefferson might not be the most efficient scorer, thanks to his free throws he scores 60 points above his 526 shot attempts. Outside of Mo Williams he is the most efficient free throw line player we have but his inability to get free throw attempts hurts his score. Millsap in contrast only throws up 403 attempts but his score is boosted 121 points above that because of does get to the free throw more frequently. Hayward gets to the line a little less frequently than Paul but still 50 percent more than Al and his able to boost his season score 119 points above his 374 shot attempts as a result. For good free throw shooters like Al, Paul and Gordon the free throw line is the most efficient shot that they have, unfortunately Al just doesn’t get to the line enough for it to impact his score in the same way. Clever players like Kobe have made it part of their game arsenal.Al unfortunately hasn’t.
I’m not going to break down the points scored per minutes on the floor, but I will say this at 32 and half minutes on the floor, this is the best we are getting from Al. Paul if he could get his shooting percentages up to his career average could perhaps score a little more, but that would mean either mean less time for Favors on the floor or less experimenting with 3 bigs on the floor and thus less time at the SF position which can be beneficial against some opponents, especially if Marvin is out injured. Hayward with six minutes less than Al on the floor can surely expect more points as his career progresses. Especially if Al isn’t here to dominate time on the ball.
Replies: 6
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6 Responses
Hey at least CJ is out of our top-3 shot takers now.
I’ve mentioned this sometime before, but on basketball-reference.com, it lists stats for ‘TS%’ or ‘True Shooting %’, which “takes into account 2-point field goals, 3-point field goals and free throws”.
Here’s the three guys you mentioned, with their TS% and their rank on the team, as well as their usage ranking.
Al Jefferson: .512 TS% (8th), uses 15 FGA/game (1st)
Paul Millsap: .544 TS% (4th), uses 11 FGA/game (2nd)
Gordon Hayward: .559 TS% (3rd), uses 10 FGA/game (3rd)
Who’s #1 and 2? Enes Kanter and Jeremy Evans. #6, 7, and 8 are Marvin Williams, Randy Foye and Mo Williams.
So basically, there are 7 better guys who you could distribute Al’s 15 shot attempts per game to that would net you more points because they’re shooting threes more and/or they shoot better from 2, and/or they get to the foul line more. Not to mention they probably defend better, which would also increase our point differential.
Interesting that Al’s still our #1 offensive option, isn’t it, Tyrone Corbin, when he’s EIGHT in true shooting percent? When, if you were looking at actual production efficiency, instead of salary size or number of years played, you would see he should probably be coming in off the bench instead of being our offensive focal point for the first three quarters. His value comes in in the fourth with his good clutch numbers, and against scrub players. The numbers say this plain as you can see, but I’ve given up hoping that the FO or Ty Corbin will ever realize it. Locke surprisingly even seems to have forgotten what the numbers say.
Here’s the reference link:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/UTA/2013.html#advanced::6
I’m pretty sure KOC is well aware of Jefferson’s inefficiencies. I believe KOC traded for Al as a stopgap when Boozer decided to move on to Chicago because at that time without Boozer and Memo injured the Jazz were going to have a huge hole when it came to scoring. The problem was Al and Dwill never developed the same chemistry as Deron was able to with Carlos, that and Al’s lack of defensive effort in first quarters meant teams just rolled over the Jazz in 1st quarters. Sometimes those leads were pegged back but over that half season Deron became more frustrated with the situation and we know what happened then. Since then KOC traded for Favors and for the pick that became Kanter, meaning someone, either Al or Paul wasn’t seen as a long term solution in their position. I’m thinking Al.
Unfortunately I don’t think Corbin thinks the same. I’ve always thought against some teams Al should start some games, and against other opposition should come on as the six man as he would be able to dominate against those units. I think then he would get as many points as he gets now, if not more, but his lack of effort in defence would be less critical. And let’s be clear on this, its lack of effort. When a game is on the line at the end of a match he puts more effort into grabbing rebounds. At the start of games he doesn’t put as much effort in, unless its games like Dallas last year where a place in the playoffs is on the line if the Jazz don’t win. I never expected Al to be a good pick and roll defender, but I do expect that teams are going to miss shots in the first quarter as all teams do at the beginning of matches as players find their stroke. If those shots end up as defensive rebounds for the Jazz that is less second chance opportunities for the opposition. Unfortunately in the two and half seasons Jefferson has been in a Jazz uniform too many teams get second chance opportunities in the first quarter. Maybe Favors or Kanter would be more active in grabbing those wayward balls early in matches. They also might shoot and score less than Al, but thats something I would be willing to experiment with to see if a player who shoots less and but defends better is a more efficient option than someone who scores more but defends only when he deems worth putting in the effort.
That’s some solid when there, KC.
solid work*
Nice analysis KC.
This is where teams make improvements, when they trade their inefficient shooting high scorer and distribute the shots among more efficient shooters. GSWs are a great example of that, when they got rid of Monta and redistributed his shots.
Jazzaholic