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Would a #3 pick stay in Utah?
Posted by: Mike W on June 16th, 2011
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.An earlier post with Brandon Knight’s interview (in which he said he’d like to come to Utah for “a couple of years” of his career) got me thinking – is there a #3 pick that will stay in Utah?
#3 picks are usually the athletically gifted kids, the ones who have long been appreciated. They feel pretty good about themselves. They play their rookie contract, perform up to expectations and look to become a franchise player. Their rookie team can offer them the biggest contract so they take it, 3 years with a player option. So 7 years in, when the 19 year old rookie becomes 26, he leaves for a big market while hitting his prime.
That’s the math I’m seeing – if they’re a superstar, as a 3rd pick should be, they want to be in a big market or at least go to a team they’re most likely to win with (usually a big market team). How do we beat that rap?
Maybe we’re better off trading down, picking up some kids trying to fight and prove something, and be glad to have someone who’s glad to have us. You guys who know Jazz history better than I do, have the Jazz ever drafted a top 5 player who stayed with Utah for the duration? Or a similar small market team? Do you think Stockton and Malone would have stayed if the Jazz were losing? What kind of loyalty do these players have to a team? We all scoffed at Lebron, but did he just do what everyone else would do? To Utah?
Replies: 22
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22 Responses
Very valid points. I’m afraid that I won’t like the answers to these questions… One thing, and this is the only thing I’ve ever said, about Jimmer, is he does seem really excited to play for the Jazz. I think he would stay. But we can’t take him with the third pick.
In Kemba’s interview yesterday, he said “hopefully I can come play for Utah”–but he SMIRKED as he said it. So that doesn’t bode well. Just because a player says something doesn’t mean much.
I mean does anyone really think Howard is going to stay in Orlando?
Neither Kemba or Knight seem too eager to play in Utah. I’m glad I’m not KOC.
We want someone who wants to be here period. This just convinces me more and more that we need to take Jimmer atleast he will stay.
Deron Williams was not a team player he was a Deron Williams Player, and while he was here, and did not play because of injuries. The jazz played better team ball and shared the ball better than they did when he played.
After he left we played better team ball with 8 or 9 players able to play and most of them rookies.
Out present core of signed players are team players and who ever comes in will have to play team ball.When they do we will have a winning team that players will want to stay in utah and be a part of.
Seriously Larry?? Deron Williams averaged 10 assists per game, and you talk about him like he was a ball hog. And “didn’t play because of injuries”?? He played for almost a month with an injured hand, and didn’t sit out for extended time until well after he was traded
I can’t really speak for Karl because he did leave to play for LA, granted John retired and there was really nothing left here in Utah for him AT ALL except Jerry and Larry, and an MVP deserves a ring, but I know for sure Stockton would have stayed with Utah no matter what. They drafted him, Jerry and Larry were nice to him, Utah’s a good place to raise kids. John’s a loyal ball player. He would have stayed. And as long as he was here, Karl was too.
And it depends on how much success we have in the next few years. If we get to the WCF at least once(not a longshot) in the next 3 or 4 years, anybody we drafted this year is gonna stay with us. We’re winning, just a step away from the Finals. We just have to draft right and win some ball games next year.
Excellent post Mike. This is a great point that a player like Brandon Knight thinks too highly of himself, and is too raw of a player and would not be ready for the NBA for several seasons. The Jazz should pass over him. Harris is already a great PG and Kanter would be a great asset to the team and he is excited about playing with Memo.
I think Stockton would have stayed his whole carrer here just because he has great integrity. Malone I can’t say the same thing about thought.
Sorry but Kanter’s attitude is no better than Knights. He is gunning for #1 pick and made it clear that he wants to go to Celevland or Washington.
I honestly don’t think this draft class has such an amazing class of talent that it would be such a mortal to sin to pick the kid who is raising his hand saying “I would love to come and play for you guys, you’re my top choice!”
Jimmer at #3 or trading down a few picks is not insane no matter what you say to justify it. He outworked Kemba and has done more than anyone in these workouts to prove his worth and that is simply a fact by the numbers and comments of GMs. How many players do we have to go through that just end up walking away before we learn that we aren’t a desired market and maybe we should take talent AND % of long term commitment into consideration? I don’t look at the world through BYU colored glasses,I’m not a BYU fan or even a college fan, but I think for the good of rebuilding in the long haul Jimmer is the best and safest route if we want to hold on to someone.
I meant to say Trading down a few picks to get Jimmer or even taking Jimmer at #3 if not possible is not a mortal sin in this draft class.
There will be plenty of talent left at 12
Darrell Griffith was the second pick in the draft, and played his whole career as a Jazzman.
This is why I have been saying all along that the Jazz are probably better off trading the third pick for a veteran player(s) already in the league (who have already been around the block a couple times), who are more mature, and are happy just to collect paychecks, regardless of who there present employer may be.
And the only reason Malone left wasn’t his integrity, the team had trouble telling him “the era is over and it’s time for us to start rebuilding without you. Go on and try to get a ring before you retire” He didn’t just up and ditch the team. Karl had just as much Jazz pride as anyone and still does to this day. He still lives and breathes The Note
@Jason that was a different time back then though. Old school superstars are almost dead. and the ones still remaining are aging superstars.
I’m afraid the only way to keep a #3 pick is to make sure he plays on a competitive team. If your team is a legitimate championship contender, you won’t want to leave. Whether the Jazz can do that with this #3 pick is yet to be seen. I like to believe we definitely have the potential to be serious title contenders by the time this #3 pick’s rookie contract is up. Great players stay on title contending teams.
Unfortunately even that is hard for the Jazz and we have proven that. We have lost and even failed to bring in players despite the fact that we were lock-in playoff teams.
That’s the things I like about Hayward,C.J,Memo,Evans and Favors. They show that mindset that they want to be here for the long haul and put team first over spotlight. That attitude is spread very very thin in the top lottery picks. It just makes me convince myself more that Jimmer is the right choice for us.
@Mike, Utah can keep a #3 pick, especially in this draft. The #3 in this draft would be what number you would say in a stronger draft? Anyone care to guess what number they would fall to?
Now think of that number, and ask if that player would stay. Its not the number, but the player.
Which leads me to my next point. You said, “Do you think Stockton and Malone would have stayed if the Jazz were losing? What kind of loyalty do these players have to a team?” Do you realize that the Jazz were not a losing time, but a winning team because of Stockton and Malone.
The glory days of the Jazz went through some pretty good players, and some pretty crappy players. But every year, as long as the Jazz had Karl and John, they were in the playoffs.
Deron, and other players do 3 year, player option contracts just incase situations like this past year what happened with the Jazz. When the Jazz were winning, Deron showed he wanted to be here. You can’t deny that. It was bad luck that we couldn’t get good enough replacements for the players that left. Although we know that Boozer should have done better, or we should have been better. Or that Memo getting hurt is part of the game. The Jazz started to implode. And they needed to do that before they could be built back up again. Deron still had time, and if the front office had turned enough around with time still left on DWill’s contract, I could have saw him staying. But, who knows how long implosions last. The Jazz getting Favors was a bold, and I hope to be a grand move that it seems it will be. The move that stopped the implosion, and started the building. Its too bad that Deron had to be in that mess.
Now, for this year’s #3, Williams, Knight, and Kanter all have their good sides, and their poor sides. But I think they all have great potential for this ball club. What we need to do is try to come up with the best course of action for building the team up in the best way. We know KOC is trying to do that.
On a side note, I think Singleton, Tobias (if I remember reading correctly, Patrick is high on this kid), and possibly K. Thompson (sp?) could be some possible good pieces for our second pick. We also have to think about next year’s draft, as well as trades, and open money that Memo is eating up right now.
What you might not be considering is:
1) After a few years the organization has made an impression on the player
2) The player has relationships with his teammates (look no further than brewer leaving the Jazz, and what that did to Deron Williams)
3) The player’s family settles down to some degree, and starts to root in to the community/friends etc
4) Attachment to the coach etc..
All that said.. who knows… This is the down side to a small market, and Utah.
Long live the Jazz.
Wisealma
If you have the #3/#12 pick you draft talent period/don’t worry about whether or not a player will stay when his contract is up. If we get another Deron, we trade him for future stars, solid veterans/draft picks. Sound familiar? You can’t draft with the idea that superior talent won’t stay. That’s surely a receipe for failure/ mediocrity at it’s best. Great players want to win… draft as many as you can. Believe me, they’ll hang around for a ring. The new CBA will likely address small market teams/retention of star players.
Knight, a healthy Kanter/Williams are solid picks… if one is available, you don’t pass on an opportunity like this. Defeatist thinking is surely an invitation to a disaster. Superior talent will overcome/win the big one. James/Wade will get their’s together. Competent GM’s know this/won’t draft a popular local college player while ignoring a superior talent pool. You can bet KOC won’t fall for this one. Just my take.
Colby, You need to get off your Fredette train, long enough to think clearly. We all understand you like Fredette and Fredette is not a bad pick. But for the sake of the team we need to do whats best to make the team compeditive again, so we can keep players. That means best player available. There are other options, but please stop saying over and over and over again how Fredette is the God who will take us to the promised land. If Fredette is best available we will take him.
Knight did say he would like to grow with a young team. That means if we are winning, and he has grown here, he will probably stay. Nothing is gaurenteed. We may not want him at that time. Same goes with any player. But I want to win a playoff series. Not watch little brother play for my team, unless he can help it win. So bring a better arguement or show us facts. Dont spread fairy tales and ghost stories. The rest of us post links, and show facts as we explain things. Most of us try to stay objective.
I love a good debate, but I know that I cannot tell a coolaide drinker not to drink the coolaide and expect them to listen. Are you smart enough to think for yourself, or will you drink?
Gerald, nice job. Tobias deserves a look is all I was getting at. There are many ways which we can move. I bet the white boards in KOC’s office are full of tiny writing, because there is so much we could do. I beleive there is no 1 correct route that we can take. There are many correct roads to get us to our destination. I hope KOC finds the safest and quickest path to get us there.
It will be nice to get a team together, that will have a few yrs together, and not so much change. I was spoiled for quite some time. I wish to be spoiled again. Maybe Hayward and Favors will be joined with that one or two other players that will compete for some time to come. If that means Knight I am good with that. If its Kanter, or Burks, or Fredette thats cool too. But let it be the best fit for our team..
@Patrick – I hope you are not suggesting that just because i didn’t post some videos that this wasn’t a valid question to ask. In a draft this tight and unclear, guessing who might stay is as valid a differentiator as any other soft factor. I do agree that you take the best and maybe use him as an asset, but I would hate to see a Dominique situation where we don’t get much back, or an Andrei situation where we label someone the franchise player too quickly and tie up way too much cash in that guy. If I have to choose between two employees, one who wants to work in my law practice and one who sees being a legal secretary as a pitstop on the way to a movie career, I pick the former. It isn’t a perfect analogy, and not enough to jump a 12 pick to 3, but could help choose between two guys you have ranked close together, right?
There have been some great comments. I dont think you worry about this yet.. Like most have said winning is what makes people want to come and stay. And maybe Knight just said something he didnt necessarily mean. I think we have to give him the benefit of the doubt.
@Colby- yeah we were a “lock-in playoff team” but unfortunately thats all we were. Most players dont go to LA or Boston because they want to be in a big market… they go because they have the best chance of winning there. If most players only wanted a big market why had no one wanted to go to new york until last season? I am not saying that we will get all the FA we want if we win, we probably wont ever be able to get the lebrons or wades because they do want a big market. but if we win we could maybe get some perennial all stars.
Deron would have stayed if we would have kept winning and improving (not agreeing just saying what he was thinking). In his eyes, we weren’t ever getting any better. I dont justify how deron acted but I really think he was loyal to the Jazz until he felt like they werent committed to going all the way and that to me is understandable. unfortunately his attitude did not help.
As far as the top picks always wanting to leave small markets, I would say that Favors seems like a very loyal guy and we know that Durant is, but they could be the exception.
Mike, nothing to do with the post. Its the continuous Fredette this, Fredette that, this person this, this person that. I have actually talked about the possibility of trading down. It believed that there are a lot of possible starters in the draft. If you could trade down and snag 3, it may be worth while.
Its tough to know who to pick in this draft. I can hardly wait to see what KOC pulls off this year. There are so many possibilities. I think he will do a good job. I am sure to get at least one guy I like. There are many very likeable guys. Just hard to tell who is best pick, and of course I think it would be best to take someone who will stay..