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Minute Distribution
Posted by: Dallan Forsyth on August 13th, 2012
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.I would like to start out by saying I was surprised at what I found by this. I thought that the bigs would be affected but I think if we go the way I have here then the wings are affected more then the big men.
With the current roster that we have right now not counting Raja or Murphy we have 13 people going to be fighting for playing time. I am counting Carrol even though he is not guaranteed he did Junior Jazz so I really see them bringing him and keeping him. Now we all know we have log jams in multiple positions so how do we solve this? Without trading anyone it is difficult.
At the PG position we have Mo Williams,Jamaal Tinsley and Earl Watson plus Randy Foye who will get minutes here. So if Mo gets 28 mins which is what he got last year that leaves us 20 minutes so if Foye gets 10 and Jamaal/Earl get 10 that is done. Pretty easy minus the fact if Earl is the man out he is going to be upset just like he was last year. He may be a good guy but he wants to play. To me either Jamaal or Earl need to be traded. Orlando needs a 2nd PG and I would take a future 2nd for either even if it is 5 years away.
At the SG position this is where the problems start. We have three people that fit this in Hayward,Burks,Foye. Foye is already getting 10 minutes so you only need to give him 5-8 more. So that is 40 minutes left for Hayward and Burks split that between the two cause Hayward can play the three.
At the SF position we have to give Millsap playing time because of the log jam at the 4/5 position. So he gets 10 minutes at the three. Marvin plays 30 minutes and that leaves 8 for Hayward at the three. So now we are taking minutes away from Hayward that he played last year. Hayward should be getting 35 minutes and the only way that happens is to take time away from Marvin or Burks. We have already seen what Corbin does so we know Burks will lose the minutes. So now because of the log jam at the bigs it affects the wings.
At the big men positions we know who we have. I am not going to put down positin cause they will be interchangeable sort of. We have Favors,Millsap,Kanter,Jefferson, and Evans. Evans is just not getting minutes in this scenario plain and simple. Favors deserves 35 minutes and Kanter needs 18 minutes to further his development. With Millsap all ready getting time at the SF he needs 20 more minutes. So that leaves 23 minutes for Al, unless you take say 3 minutes away from Paul and give them to Al and then they are an even 26/27 minutes a game. I do not see them accepting this because it is about a 8-10 min time cut a game in contract years. I could be wrong but history has proven it self over and over with players. They do not just happily give up time for the better of the team. Especially in a contract year.
So in short:
PG: Mo 28, Foye 10, Earl/Jamaal 10
SG: Hayward 27, Foye 10, Burks 11 mins
SF: Williams 30, Millsap 10, Gordy 8 mins
Bigs: Favors 35 mins, Al 27 mins, Paul 16 mins, Kanter 18 mins
So Burks gets screwed in this scenario. Evans,Carrol and one of the PG do not play. I do not know how to give Burks more minutes. Who do you take them from? From last year this is how Corbin has done things so this is my best guess to how he does it again. But I would not be surprised if Kanter gets screwed and Millsap and Jefferson get their minutes.
How do you all distribute the minutes?
Replies: 27
Views: 751
27 Responses
I don’t expect Bell to be on the opening day roster.
I also don’t think Evans, Murphy, Watson, Tinsley, or Carroll will see many meaningful minutes.
If Jefferson, Millsap, and Favors are all on the roster, I can guarantee you Kanter gets screwed. Under this scenario, I think he will be lucky to average 12 minutes per night. I see Al, Derrick, and Paul all hovering right around 30 minutes per night.
The Jazz didn’t bring in Mo and Marvin Williams to sit. Look for them to average 28-32 minutes per game.
Don’t be shocked if Hayward gets more court time then any other player. I’m guessing around 30-35 minutes per game (depending on how well he’s playing that particular night).
I think Burks will be battling with Foye for playing time all season long. They both seem to be competing for the same role. I’m guessing whichever one impresses the coaching staff the most will get around 18-20 minutes per game, while the other guy only gets spot minutes. I say the advantage goes to Foye, because if the Jazz had confidence in Burks, then why bring in Randy in the first place? The Foye signing was bad news for Alec the second it was announced. Teams only bring in veterans, when they feel younger guys aren’t up to the challenge.
PG: Mo 30, Foye 12, Earl/Jamaal 6
SG: Hayward 25, Foye 8, Burks 15 mins
SF: Williams 28, Millsap 10, Gordy 10 mins
Bigs: Favors 35 mins, Al 30 mins, Paul 20 mins, Kanter 11
I don’t see Al or Sap getting less than 30 min and even though Kanter needs more for his development, I only see him getting the same min as last year unless he can really earn it. I do see Burks earning a few more minutes this season (not as many as he should get), but that is contingent upon Foye or Burks playing some PG time. We really need someone to be able to step up and help at this position this year. Earl/Jamaal just don’t cut it.
Bottom line:
As long as Jefferson AND Millap are on the roster, Kanter won’t get major minutes.
As long as Hayward AND Foye are on the roster, Burks won’t get major minutes.
*Millsap* sorry…typo
I sincerely feel that distribution of minutes are going to be a lot different this year. Kevin O Connor is no longer the GM. Mark Lindsey is. I believe this will positively affect the way players get minutes this season.
Lindsey, just like KOC, is going to have a lot of influence on playing time.
If you listened to the Locked on Jazz Lindsey and KOC interviews, it seems obvious that PLAYER’S EGOS do not matter to Lindsey.
Lindsey is very much team oriented. If a player is hurting the team by being on the floor, or if a player is being lazy and interfering with execution, Lindsey will make recommendations to the coaching staff about that player.
If a young player proves that he deserves more minutes (Favors, Burks, Evans, Kanter), Lindsey will urge the coaching staff to give them those minutes.
Unlike KOC and Ty Corbin, it’s obvious that player salary, experience and age do not have a bearing on who gets to play, under a Lindsey system (see Kawhi Leonard, Ginobli, Stephen Jackson).
On the Rockets and Spurs, minutes are earned. On the Jazz, they are given. I have a feeling that with Lindsey co-running the show, our team will be run very differently from now on.
Lindsey is of the (correct) opinion that DEFENSE is the most important philosophy a team can have. This alone indicates that Jefferson will get fewer minutes.
With Lindsey as GM, I don’t see benchwarmers like last year’s Raja Bell, CJ Miles, Watson/Tinsley getting FREE minutes this year. I don’t think we have to take for granted anymore that veterans are going to be getting 30-45 minutes a night just because they’re veterans, and/or make the most money.
Our players that have the most positive impact on our team will see the most minutes on the court (that could mean Jeremy Evans, Alec Burks, and Enes Kanter see more playing time, while Jefferson, Millsap, and Hayward see less).
Ditto for Mo, Marvin, and Foye.
I don’t think Lindsey will have that much power over coaching decisions. I really honestly don’t. The Jazz have always let the coaching staff decide such matters. This isn’t Houston or San Antonio. Lindsey might trade a player he doesn’t feel is fitting the system, but I can’t see him dictating to the coach who should get what minutes on the floor.
If I was in charge:
Bell and Watson would already be gone.
I would send Kevin Murphy to the D-League at first opportunity.
I would start Jefferson, Favors, Marvin Williams, Hayward, and Mo Williams. I would give Favors 35 minutes per night, and the other four starters 30 minutes a game.
I would have Foye backup Mo (about 18 minutes a game), Burks backup Hayward (about 18 minutes per game), Millsap backup Marvin and Derrick (about 30 minutes per game between the small forward and power forward positions), and Kanter backup Jefferson (about 18 minutes per game).
I would tell Evans, Tinsley, and Carroll to stay ready, and remind them that sitting on an NBA bench, making millions of dollars, beats working for a living.
when thinking about minutes, Im so ready to overhaul Sap and Al. We have half a season for Favors and Kanter to do something. One of them has to become a low post scoring threat. In the long run Kanter has more offensive tools, but Favors will bring a threat on offense before kanter. If that goes well and they can score, then I would love to deal Sap, Al, and Evans. I would like to see us pick up a stretch 4 like R.anderson, Novak, or bonner for the back up PF and a low post defensive beast 7 footer like Drummond to back up Center.
@Jason I agree with everything you said. It is really just unrealistic everyone gets the minutes they need. One of the main reasons Denver got into the L.A trade was so they could free up players minutes. They had to many players at certain positions with young players who needed minutes. I agree with your last assessment the most and would love for that to happen.
The thing is though if we just got rid of me big. Whether it is Paul or Jefferson we then pull 10 minutes from the SF position which Hayward can play and now Burks gets his time back at the 2.
Ideally, Tinsley + Watson get 0 minutes, and we run our combo guards (Foye/Burks) at PG more minutes; Earl and Jamaal simply aren’t NBA-level players at this point. It’s also going to be hard for Burks to get more minutes right now! It would be strange to see Corbin giving more minutes to our worst defensive player when we just brought in GM Lindsey and his defense-first philosophy. That said, here’s my ideal realistic scenario:
1: Mo W 29
2: Hayward 34
(1/2): Foye 20, Burks 13
3: Marvin W 29, Millsap 19
4: Millsap 13, Favors 30, Jefferson 5
5: Jefferson 27, Kanter 21
Totals:
Hayward 34
Millsap 32
Jefferson 32
Favors 30
Marvin W 29
Mo W 29
Kanter 21
Foye 20
Burks 13
I’d love to find some way to get Millsap up to 34, Favors to 32, Kanter to 25, but that just can’t happen without some bizarre setups, like Williams or Millsap at the 2 or something. I’ve made some odd suggestions on this site, but I will not be the one saying that our group on the floor should ever possibly consist of Burks PG, Millsap SG, Marvin SF, Jefferson PF, Kanter C lol
I hate that even the ideal realistic scenario doesn’t have any room for Jeremy Evans to grab minutes. We have too many useful players! It would seriously do us a lot of good to package 2 of our very good players for a top tier starter somehow.
How about the ideal UNrealistic scenario, straight to you from Magical Christmas Land. I do not suggest this, I don’t want this to ever happen, but it’s funny to try and go backwards – lay out the minutes first for each player, then try and make them fit on the floor.
Hayward 34
Millsap 34
Jefferson 30
Favors 30
Marvin 29
Mo 29
Kanter 25
Foye 14
Evans 10
Burks 5
Since this is big-heavy, let’s start from the 5:
Jefferson 23, Kanter 25
Favors 30, Jefferson 7, Millsap 1, Evans 10
Marvin 29, Millsap 19
Hayward 34, Millsap 14 (LOL)
Mo 29, Foye 14, Burks 5
So to get Evans just 10 minutes and play our top players the most minutes we’d have to play Marvin or Millsap FOURTEEN MINUTES at the TWO. Unbalanced roster much?
I think now that Howard is going, the Jazz will be looking to see what Al equals in a trade. Offering Millsap the most they could and having him decline it was a message to Paul, and probably other teams around the league on what they were thinking.
The fact is because of the roster just now the Jazz cannot offer Murphy a contract and they seem keen on the kid, so the Jazz have at least one more move to make.
Back to the conversation of minutes with all the trades that the Jazz have made I have been confused myself over who gets what minutes all over the team. This team now constructed has multiples players who can play multiples positions, its going to be an interesting headache for the coach to decide on any given night.
As for Burks although impressive individually he still needs to find a way to play his game that remembers he has players around him, he doesn’t have to do everything by himself. Until he learns that as impressive as he is, Foye will get a lot of his minutes.
Given the opportunity either Watson or Tinsley will move on. My bet is Tinsley. Neither player is going to give you much individual scoring from this part of their career going forward. Tinsley is a great cheerleader at the side of the court on match day, but Watson really seems to care about the development of the kids. When the ship was sinking with Sloan and Dwill leaving he was encouraging Hayward, Evans and then Favors to continue to progress, he was even there in the off season helping the kids at summer camp. He’s taking on a player coaching role within the team. He seems happy to be back up, as long as he gets minutes, but I think long term he might have a role amongst the coaching staff after his playing time is done.
If Tinsley or Watson is moved on, playing time is opened up for Foye at backup PG which opens up more time for Burks and Murphy at SG. I think, though not guaranteed, Carroll will stay for his hustle as long as a trade is initiated where Jefferson, Bell, Tinsley/Watson is moved on.
I have no doubt Koc has done some inquiries in that regard which the new Gm has to decide to move on. I know Houston has a lot of draft picks accumulated in the anticipation of getting in on a Howard trade, they also might need a backup PG and be able to take on Al’s contract for a year.
Favors 12, Al 20, Kanter 16
Millsap 30, Favors 18
Marvin 30, Hayward, 10, Evans/Carroll 8 (depending on match up)
Hayward 20, Burks 23, Foye 5
Mo 28, Foye 20
Trading Al:
Favors 30, Kanter 18
Millsap 30, Marvin 8 (stretch 4), 10 Evans
Marvin 22, Hayward 15, Carroll 9
Hayward 17, Burks 25, Foye 8
Mo 30, Foye 18
Correction*
Favors 20, Kanter 28
Millsap 30, Favors 10, Marvin (stretch 4)/Evans 8 (depending on match up)
Marvin 22 (or 30 if Evans gets PF minutes), Hayward 15, Carroll (DNP or 9 minutes if Marvin gets PF minutes)
Hayward 17, Burks 25, Foye 8
Mo 30, Foye 18.
Keeping Al doesn’t allow Marvin to play some stretch 4 and Forces Millsap to get minutes at SF, which forces Hayward to get all his minutes at SG, which takes away minutes from Burks and/or Foye….and Kanter and Evans.
I like someone’s suggestion of two of our good players for a better player at one of our overloaded positions. Those trades are hard to do though.
There will most undoubtedly be some injuries, though, and we’ll have the depth to keep going without getting weaker, which might be important to snagging that playoff spot over another team.
@Jason, I have to disagree with you.
Although the coaching staff is obviously in charge of minute by minute distribution, the final buck rests with the General Manager of the team whose job it is to yes, manage the team.
By recruiting a new GM, the Jazz have subtly admitted that they need help managing the team. Minutes and rotations are an integral part of that. KOC said they were looking to make an additional hire as well (whether coaching staff or player development, remains to be seen).
Although the Jazz were never inclined to interfere with Jerry Sloan’s management of the team, Tyrone Corbin has proven that he needs assistance.
Surely you can’t think that the Jazz have enough blind faith in Corbin to let him do whatever he wants. Corbin has demonstrably proven that he has a major bias towards veterans based on their veteran status alone–Not how good they are or if they are hurting the team. The fact that they are veterans was enough to make Corbin change the starting lineup for the playoffs by inserting a terrible basketball player who all but derailed the team when he was on the floor (Howard).
If Raja Bell, CJ Miles and Josh Howard were not injured last season, the Jazz would not have made the playoffs. Corbin clearly had a major bias towards playing veterans at the expense of the success of the team. The Jazz are not a stupid organization. They realized that the reason they made the playoffs was because injuries forced Corbin’s hand.
Lindsey is a defensive oriented statistic/analytics guru, who will be better able to understand how specific players and rotations affects the outcome of games. He will be better able to articulate to (and hopefully influence) Corbin to at least TRY experimenting with different lineups, or playing certain players less or more.
Either the Jazz finish with a better record this season (which is predicated upon better distribution of minutes by Corbin; to be facilitated by maybe, ya know, heeding the advice of the new General Manager), or Corbin is gone after next season.
Makes sense to me.
What is funny about the fact that Corbin is so biased towards the vets and yet he was benched for Bryon Russel. So he got benched for a youth movement. But he will not do the same even though he says differently
@Nick
I hope your right. It would definitely be a change for the better. As you already mentioned, nobody ever told Jerry Sloan what he could or couldn’t do with any of his teams.
As far as I could tell last season, Corbin was pretty much allowed to do whatever he wanted as well (for better or worse). Maybe all that finally changes this year, but that would be a huge departure from how this organization has always been run. Also, let’s not forget, that it was KOC who brought in all these aging veterans in the first place (Bell, Howard, Watson, Tinsley, etc…). He deserves as much of the blame as Corbin in my book.
@JMC good point. KOC also resigned CJ, add him to that list.
Jason, you’re absolutely right that KOC shares as much blame as Corbin. He absolutely needs to take responsibility for the fact that he brought in a bunch of injury prone, aging veterans.
Maybe he saw the error of his ways? One of the things KOC said in his interview is that bringing in Lindsey is a longterm addition for the Jazz, as well as one proves immediately beneficial.
Of course, this is all just hypothesis. I certainly hope we can find the solution for effective distribution of minutes. Don’t care who solves the problem, as long as it gets solved.
Once again, why dont they play the player in the best form.
@ Nick – If you’re right about another hire, why dont the Jazz hire a real head coach. As far as another trade goes, havent Houston got about 20 players under contract?
Just because KOC brings in aging veterans trying to come back from some injury (Howard, Bell) or some behavior problem (Tinsley) on the cheap, does NOT mean that he thinks they should be starting at their position. They were there as backup options and for depth. Starting them at inopportune times, too soon after returning from injury and over our more talented and skilled (yet inexperienced) young draft picks was all on Corbin.
Corbin played Raja too much when he had Burks and Hayward to give development time to.
Corbin played Howard too much and played him too soon after returning from injury. Twice, once at a terrible time right for the playoffs, and over an injection of much-needed energy and hustle in DeMarre Carrol.
Corbin played Watson too soon after returning from injury when Tinsley was kicking butt.
Corbin played Jefferson too much and Favors not enough.
I wish we could package Al, Tinsley, AND Watson in the same deal and then the receiving team could just waive Tinsley or Watson. I like both of them, but they have seen their better days and they are going nowhere. Now we have some youth that are ready to step in and make things happen.
This has to be the year that we open up time for the other guys. Even if we traded Al for 2 future picks and convinced that team to take Watson and Tinsley off our hands. But we’d have to find a team with insane cap space or it just wouldn’t work.
@Kevin, Rockets just sized Delfino for 2 years 6M, that means the rockets have 21 players guarantee and 1 draft pick, so they have a 22 man roster. Wed probability need a 3rd team at least, but Jazz could set themselves up with a lot of talent, cap space, minutes, and young players that could be sent to the D League for the years and all by getting a return on expiring contracts.
I wouldnt mind getting some future picks from the rockets as they are going to be pretty bad. Do they have any young PG on the books?
@disco, no PGs of worth really. Douglass and Livingston. Houston is at about 50M, so they are about 1M over the minimum. So if they trade a lot of their 22 players they will need salary coming back. So Bell and Watson might actually have worth in that regard. Houston would need to stay above the minimum while getting rid of 9 players. Jazz could give them about 21M in expiring contract so they can play in next years FAs. It might not be to late for Dennis Lindsey to salvage the Jazz assets and turn them into profit. Houston has a ton of young talent. Houston would be smart to do so, they would have about 37M in expiring contracts if they got Al, Bell, and Watson without trading their 1 year contracts, while still retaining some of their young talent. They wouldn’t need picks either, so least Jazz could get some picks out of this. Ideally, picks and young talent.