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106 vs 95.3 pts allowed
Posted by: KCJones on December 17th, 2012
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.If you had to choose, would you choose to give opposing teams 106 points per 100 possessions or 95.3 points per 100 possessions?
That, my friends, is the points allowed when Al and Paul are our frontcourt versus when Favors and Kanter are our frontcourt. This little gem was brought to you by Marc Stein at ESPN’s power rankings (here), where the Jazz have fallen to 16th-best in the league and 9th in the West. Steinman says this about the Jazz:
A stat that can’t be ignored now that Trade Season is fully under way: Utah ranks No. 23 in defensive efficiency and allows 106 points per 100 possessions when Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap anchor the frontcourt. When it’s anchored by Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter? Just 95.3 points.
Now I don’t know about you, but 11 fewer points by the opposing team sounds pretty good. Some people in the media and radio broadcasting of Jazz games business keep pointing to how Derrick Favors just isn’t an offensive powerhouse yet. SO WHAT??! This post is just a reminder to those people that he doesn’t need to be. In fact, according to the stat above, Favors and Kanter could average 10 points fewer than Big Al and Millsap in the same minutes, everything else being equal, and we would STILL be a one-point per game better team, which same stat people mentioned above say is equal to 2.7 more wins a season. Favors and Kanter play better defense NOW, and they’re still pretty good offensively, according to their per 36 minutes stats. In 36 minutes of playing time, Al and Paul combine for 36.2 points. Favors and Kanter combine for 30.3!
Ok, so let’s do some simple math now. The non-vets give up 11 fewer points while producing 6 fewer points. So that makes us a 5-point better team per night. Do you KNOW how many wins that translates into over 82 games? (Hint: 2.7 * 5). Now I know these same stat people are going to say ‘well Favors and Kanter are playing against 2nd-string guys and Al and Paul are going against first-stringers’. Yep, I’ll give you that. Is that really a 5-point per night difference? Even if it is, that’s still equal RIGHT NOW. Which begs the next question. Are Al and Paul going to be making any marked progress in their games by this time next year? The next two years? No. Al and Millsap are what they are, while Enes and Derrick are in their sophomore year and 3rd year, respectively. They WILL improve by getting real playing time.
To me, the right choice for the future (and now!) is very clear. Make way for the young guns, because they’re just as good (if not better) today, and have a higher ceiling tomorrow if given the court time to improve. At some point, I expect to see some trust in these guys from the Jazz front office, because they’re proving they deserve it. And it’s going to take a move by the front office because Corbin just isn’t seeing what everyone else is seeing and what the stats are telling.
Replies: 37
Views: 2490
37 Responses
So Marc Stein is an Al hater I guess……
Sorry @KC but your only using stats and logic to make your point, you need to use….uh, come to think of it, I dont know how else someone can once and for all convince some ppl that Al is mediocre, overrated, and a horrible investment for the Jazz future.
It bugs me when people say we can’t score without Jefferson. We can score without him while also giving up less points. I just hope the Jazz make the right decision and let him walk or trade him.
The time has come. We aren’t going anywhere with Jefferson and Millsap. Free the young guns!!!!!!!!
Great post! I would love to see both favors and kanter starting by the end of the year, even though there would be some “growing pains” i.e. foul trouble. I’d Love it if either millsap or al would come off the bench, and trade the other.
I like Al Jefferson as a person, and around the locker room he does some great work with the young guys. As a basketball player he is soft, most of the time little or no defense, and when they pass the ball in to him most of the time the game comes to a halt, he holds the ball and most of the time either turns it over or misses the shot. He looks as though he avoids contact on offense and defense. we cannot afford to keep him. Our ball movement on offense comes to a halt when he gets his hands on the ball. Al needs to go.
The jazz brand of basketball is played when all is not on the floor. Millsap is a much better player when he plays with Kantor and Favors. We cannot play Jazz basketball with Al on the floor.
@ Larry, I agree, but if we trade Jefferson, it sounds like millsap is signing with highest bidder. So we loose both, but have money. Im sure there’s a free agent center or power forward we could sign to back up enes and favors???
The stats are for Sap and Al first unit and Kanter and Favors for second unit. This is why you can’t go completly on stats.. So if Sap and Al played against the second unit what would they be??
If al was gone I think Paul would stay. He would know that he was not going to be replaced, his game is like the old Paul played when he is on the floor without al.
Think how many times it is the second unit that gives us the lead, then as soon as al comes on the floor the lead is gone because of his soft slow down play.
Paul has stated he wants to be a starter, I don’t think he’d stay to play back up.
I disagree with the sentiment that Favors and Kanter only play against 2nd tier guys. People mix and match unlike the Jazz they do not hockey lineup the units in and out like the Jazz. Guess who Kanter scores all 10 points on in the 2nd quarter the other night? MARC GASOL! There staring Center!! Guess who Al scores his 12 point on in the 1st half against? HADDADI! There back up center!!
Also we just say well Kanter and Favors are doing this PER 36 but that is with the touches they get now. Al and Paul get more touches then they would and so that means more touches for Hayward,Burks,Favors,Kanter,Marvin all who draw fouls which helps get the other teams backups in that you can take advantage of. Kanter gets more FT in the first minute he is in the game then Al usually does all game. Imagine if him and Favors played more minutes and were able to be aggresive..
There is no way any one can say the Kenneth Faried can score off of pure energy and hustle but Favors who is more athletic,more skilled and a better FT shooter could not score 15-17 a game and Kanter could give you the same thing. Will there be rough games? Ya but they have room to grow and improve we have crap games now with players that are said to be “consistent” and that is why they get the most minutes.
I do think Kanter/Favors would do just as well as starters as Al/Sap.. Tinsley,Watson, Foye stats?? Burks and Evans could do no worse with those same minutes.. Let’s be patient and hope for a trade at the right time..
Looks like the Jazz clearly need to move Jefferson and possibly Millsap as well, because Corbin is obviously too dumb to make the change in the rotation himself.
Calderon and Derozan for Jefferson straight up?
1 more: Jefferson and Earl for Tyreke Evans, John Salmons, and Isiah Thomas. We only take Salmons back so the money works and I figure we amnesty him at the end of the year.
Hi all, brand new here but have been reading and enjoying your posts for a while now.
My 2 cents on Favors, he is my absolute favorite player. I love the way he plays D! It drives me insane the way they use (dont use) him on offense when he and Al are on the floor. I cant count how many times ive seen Favors set a pick, roll to the basket wide open, calling for the ball only to have it go to Al on the left elbow. Corbin does not seem to run any plays for him at all. I realize Al may be our best option on O but when you dont give your up and coming stud chances to produce, then Id rather see Al shipped out. Millsap can go too, anyone that would boob about being the sixth man behind two guys whose ceilings are higher that his ever was isnt a team player. Sorry for the long read, just wanted to share my opinions. Keep up the good work guys, Tacorev, Dallan, Omar. Really enjoy your posts!
Wake Up Call People:
Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors HAVE been playing against teams STARTING UNITS.
The argument that they only play against other team’s benches is complete bullsh*t.
Only when Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter play TOGETHER are they playing against other teams’ 2nd units. Don’t let the Jazz front office/David Locke narrative fool you.
Enes Kanter shut down Dwight Howard and scored all over him. Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors played the best defense on Tim Duncan that any Jazz player ever has. EVER.
No matter how many trades we make, we’re never going to advance far with Ty Corbin as head coach. I’d take Flip Saunders over Ty Corbin.
I would LOVE to get Rick Adelman, but apparently even David Kahn is smarter than KOC/Greg Miller.
Coaches available are Mike Brown, Stan Van Gundy, and after this season, Mike D/Antoni.
#Fire Corbin.
@Nick Knows All. Agreed, I think Brown or Van Gundy would do worlds of good for the Jazz.
For Van Gundy, we have a very similar offense to what he had in Orlando. Dominant post players, shooters on the wings.
Mike Brown would be entering a whole new world of coaching without a superstar. I believe he could help us though because he is a defensive minded coach.
@Nick Knows All Kanter is too good to be on the bench. Only thing I can think of is management is trying to put Jefferson/Millsap on display for trade reasons. Any rational person can see he’s ready for 28+ right now.
@Nick I love the hashtag, but i am still worried about your health. @taco – My sentiments exactly. The Jazz will never reach their potential with Corbin in charge, which as a fan is disappointing and shows the FO has no designs on becoming anything more than a fringe playoff team
@RiverJ: Good to have you around.
@Nick: I like it!
#FireCorbin
I would to love to see Kanter and Favours play more
But you are comparing the defense per 100 possessions against minutes of playing for offense. You have to use the same one to compare if it would be better of worse per game.
I want you to be right
@disco: you’re right to be worried! It’s not just MY mental health you should be worried about…worry about the collective meantal health of the entire Jazz NATION while Ty Corbin keeps our best players off the floor in favor of veteran SCRUBS.
As long as Enes Kanter & Derrick Favors ride the pine (not to mention Gordon Hayward, Demarre Carroll, and Alec Burks, my mental health will continue to deteriorate.
@Dean – True, but I think the comparison is valid. Here’s why: Just pretend there’s 100 possessions in a game and starters play 36 minutes per game. They don’t, but the numbers still match up ratio-wise. Actual possessions are around 90 per game, or 90% of 100, while actual starter minutes are around 32, which is 90% of 36. So I think the comparison is valid, albeit maybe the points I mentioned (11 less allowed, 6 less scored) are inflated by that extra 10% if we’re looking at per-game. Reducing it by 10% is: 9.9 allowed, 5.4 allowed, for a difference of 4.5 points per game. That better?
Anyway, the problem with stats in basketball is that defense is very hard to quantify, as there’s no ‘correct rotation’ stat that shows you went 5-8 on rotating correctly or ‘defended rim’ stat that shows a player went 4-9 on stepping out and taking a charge/defending the rim from someone driving or ‘help defense’ stat that shows a player correctly helped off their man. Defensive schemes and philosophies vary from team to team and there’s just no way to measure it quantitatively, except for stats like I mentioned in my post, points allowed per possessions, and even then its hard to single out two guys out of the five being solely responsible. That’s the best we have for now, and our eyes, of course, which tell us Al is non-committed and slow on defense and doesn’t do much to stop people scoring at the rim while Derrick is active, has great timing, and makes players alter their shots at the rim and Paul gets pushed around and shot over down low (though he does have great hands and pokes/swipes the ball well) while Kanter pushes guys out away from the block.
BTW, if ‘rim defending’ was a real stat, Derrick would SMOKE Big Al. Maybe I’ll start keeping that stat myself and posting it after every game:
“Big Al went 1-10 on defending the rim while Derrick Favors went 5-6″.
Welcome RiverJ!
Nick, I couldnt agree more! We should start a support group! #Fire Corbin x100000 power!
Dallan great point about Kanter rocking Gasol (All Star) and Al, as per usual, smash below average to scrub status big, Haddadi?!
For all the talk about Al being an offensive ace, in 2 years, averaging 33 minutes per game, Al has had 6a SIX—30+ games?!
Wizards, @Bobcats, Cavs, Pistons, GSW, Magic. That is ONE SINGLE 30+ point game on the road, and only ONE single 30 + point game against West team. And the answer is NO, cuz he averaged the 8th most shots last year in all the NBA. This year he takes the 15th most shots and is the 27th rank scoring leader?! He gets time, shots, but doesnt get it done PERIOD!
Its gonna be pretty embarrassing when Lopez drops 20 and 15, DWill goes off, and Favors and Kanter, and Burks combine for like 36 minutes. Ya, who won that trade Jazz or Nets????
#FireCorbin
excerpt from article in NY Times about DWILL and his production.
““That system was a great system for my style of play,” Williams said of the “flex” offense run by Utah Coach Jerry Sloan. “I’m a system player. I love Coach Sloan’s system. I loved the offense there.”
The comments were provocative on multiple levels.
Williams was widely blamed for Sloan’s sudden retirement in February 2011, just before the Jazz traded Williams to the Nets. And his openly pining for Sloan’s system could be viewed as subtle criticism of Coach Avery Johnson’s offense.
Williams did nothing to discourage that interpretation when he was asked to compare the offense used by the Nets with the one he ran in Utah. “Is it as good as there? No,” he said. “There’s just more one-on-one and isos” in Johnson’s offense.”
-So why did the Jazz bring on Jefferson? he didn’t fit the system ran by Coach Sloan? or the players? I know he was probably the best player the Jazz could get at that time but what did it really get UTAH, Sloan to resign, DWILL traded? and now we’re left trying to hold all the pieces together. And the players we basically traded DWILL for don’t even play did I miss something here?
Excerpt from power rankings week 8
“I don’t understand what Utah’s doing. It has collected so many high draft picks but won’t let them play. Rather than starting, Gordon Hayward comes off the bench for Marvin Williams for reasons that elude me. Derrick Favors backs up Al Jefferson, and while I get the depth chart order here, it’s not one that takes defense into account.
Enes Kanter lost a lot of weight in the offseason, but I’d almost expect him to gain it back this year. He’s burning calories for only 15 minutes per game. Granted, Alec Burks hasn’t been great in his time on the court, but he’s also played fewer than 100 minutes this season.
The youth in Utah is languishing, backing up a merely average team of veterans. It might be the best short-term strategy for squeezing out some wins, but I can’t help but feel that the Jazz are sacrificing long-term development.”
I think the longer this trend continues the less likely the Jazz are to resign ANY of the core 4 or any player at that not named Jefferson. Jazz need to figure this train wreck out and FAST before this blows up any worse if that’s possible.
‘The youth in Utah is languishing, backing up a merely average team of veterans.’
This is EXACTLY the reason for my calls for the Jazz to go with the young guys. It’s not like we have a top-4 seed team full of veteran guys here. The veterans are barely going to scrape us into the playoffs, if that. So THAT is what we’re sacrificing our youth and future for? No thanks.
The evidence is piling up that Corbin simply doesn’t have what it takes to be a head coach in the NBA.
Only if the front office cared what the fans think. Winning don’t seem a must to this organization
I wish the Jazz could some how pick up Bledsoe.
@Millslapped, I have been REALLY impressed with that kid, he’s doing wonders on the Clippers!!
It’s time for Dennis to play money ball! Trade Big Al and/or Paul. Force Ty to play the kids!
Will they have the guts to do it, or will it be like last year, where the Jazz got nothing for CJ or Howard?
Great stats and logic KC!
Also, Salmons can only be amnestied by the team who signed him, not a trade partner.
Jazzaholic
I think Dallan nailed this one. The difference maker is getting the ball in the hands of guys that can draw fouls. Its a big deal. Getting a chance to take out the other teams scorers from the game and 70% from the line is better than any other shot chances a player could take