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Are the Jazz really good enough?
Posted by: KCJones on April 9th, 2012
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.I’m just wondering to myself after watching the Jazz fall to the Spurs….are the Jazz really good enough? I want them to make the playoffs, I really do. I like watching playoff games when the Jazz are in it. But I’m not sure they actually deserve to be in there. I was thinking about this when Patrick, a regular on these boards, blamed our wing play for our losses and absolved the bigs from responsibility. I feel differently about it. I think it comes down to efficiency, and frankly, two of our main scoring options are pretty bad in the efficiency category. I think it just comes down to that.
Let me show you something to illustrate. I’ve picked a random game in the NBA.
Random game: Team A – took 93 shots vs. Team B – took 69 shots.
Now that’s a pretty huge difference in shots taken, wouldn’t you say? Let’s pretend it was a contest between two teams without all the dribbling and whatnot. Just one team shooting 93 times and the other team shooting 69 teams. Feel free to divvy those shots out to members of each team as you will, and by the way — you must take a fixed percentage of those from close, a fixed amount from mid-range and a fixed amount from the three point line. Also, we’re going to throw in some foul shots, which don’t count against the total shots taken. We’re going to award those to players on each team based on how often they drive to the hole. Wouldn’t you think 93 shots would be a huge advantage to Team A versus a Team B that only gets 69 shots? If you score on average 1 point per shot, you would expect Team A to win 93-69, right? Well, let me surprise you (you saw this coming didn’t you): Team A LOST the game, even after shooting 24 more shots. And it wasn’t even close as they lost by 10 points. And double surprise, this wasn’t a random game, it was the Jazz loss to the Spurs last night.
Firstly, getting more shots than the other team IS important. 93 shots to the other teams 69?? I’ll take that every game. That’s a huge advantage. So why did we still lose? It all comes down to your efficiency with the shots you get.
WHERE you take your shots matters. Corner threes, layups and dunks. If your 93 shots are all those, you’re in good position. Contested mid-range jumpers and threes, not so much. Double-teamed shots from the post, not so great.
WHO is taking those shots and more specifically, how good they are at making them. Is your worst three point shooter taking the majority of your threes? Probably not a good idea.
DRIVING TO THE HOOP results in foul shots. You want players who move towards the hoop aggressively. Not only do you get foul shots, but you still have a chance to score on the shot AND you put other players in foul trouble.
GOOD DEFENSE keeps the other teams from being efficient. Good defenses force mid-range jumpers. Good defenses stay in front of their man and keep players from driving past them. Good defenses don’t foul a lot. when they do foul, they make smart fouls (not reach-n fouls on the other team’s point guard in the back-court). When they foul at the rim, it’s not a soft foul, it’s a foul to show the other team they should stay away from the rim and to keep shots from going in for three-point plays.
So I see a lot of deficiencies with the Jazz. First of all, Big Al is our #1 shot-taker. But he’s not very efficient. He shoots close to 50%. BUT, the way he plays isn’t conducive to getting free throws. He shoots jumpers, does lots of fake pumps. Most of his shots aren’t actually at the rim, and because he’s not driving to the hole much, he doesn’t shoot many free throws. When he scores 30 points its most likely because he shot the ball 30 times. Paul Millsap is a bright spot. He’s a very efficient scorer with a smooth jump shot. As far as efficiency, Paul Millsap is great. The concern I see with him is volume. He relies on energy play and when he’s gotten increased playing time, he has periods where he isn’t as effective because he lacks the energy he needs. We saw it this year after his great start and we’ve seen it in the past. Next up is CJ Miles. Our fourth-highest shot-taker, barely edged out by Gordon Hayward, although CJ beats him in shots-taken-per-minute. Basically, CJ is a chucker. CJ is also TERRIBLY INEFFICIENT, shooting 38% and just 30% from three. Here’s a run-down of each player and how many points-per-field-goal-attempt they average:
- 1.12 – Big Al
- 1.24 – Paul Millsap
- 1.28 – Gordon Hayward
- 1.09 - CJ Miles
- 1.32 – Devin Harris
- 1.25 – Derrick Favors
- 1.03 – Josh Howard
- 1.16 – Alec Burks
- 1.21 – Enes Kanter
- 1.28 – Raja Bell
- 0.93 – Earl Watson
- 0.98 – Jamaal Tinsley
- 1.07 - DeMarre Carroll
- 1.45 – Jeremy Evans
So…some problems. Big Al and CJ are not very efficient, yet together they have taken roughly 29% of all the Jazz shots. Let’s just say 1/3 for a nice round amount. That’s not good, Jazz fans. That’s a lot of points we’re leaving on the court. This also supports my ongoing campaign for Jeremy Evans to see more minutes. He just makes getting points EASY! 1.44 points per field goal attempt! Also, just to confirm: Earl Watson and Jamaal Tinsley are some of our worst offensive efficiency players. Just for kicks, some Spurs comparison info: Tony Parker scores 1.23 per FGA, Duncan scores 1.19 per FGA and Manu Ginobli scores 1.50 per FGA (wow), and together they shoot 36% of all shots. Notice a PG, Big and Wing are their three main guys and they are all efficient, and they take the biggest chunk of those shots.
So, I would disagree with Patrick in that it’s our wing and PG play that is killing us. In fact, G-Hay and D-Hair (those are going to catch on I promise) are among our most efficient scorers on the team! If you’re specifically talking about CJ, then yes, I concur. Sadly, with Josh and Raja out and Burks slumping a bit, we’re basically stuck with CJ getting minutes (unless his calf strain sidelines him long term).
I still hold to a couple things: A Big Al trade for an elite wing (I like Granger, Iguodala) would help this team’s efficiency. Jeremy Evans needs more playing time (also accomplished by the aforementioned Big Al trade). Devin Harris is our best PG, but we need one who can get into the paint and dish, preferrably a young guy who can grow with the team to back up Harris for a bit, then take over. And we need one or two more good shooting / driving wings. I just don’t think we’re good enough when our best offensive option is Al Jefferson.
One last note. This post isn’t to bag on Al or CJ, in fact I think both of those guys are great guys and I love having them on the team. Do I think they should shoot less of our team’s shots? Yes, definitely. I wouldn’t trade Al for just anything. Only an elite wing. CJ is a good dude, but I think he needs more coaching, honestly. I’m not sure he’s getting it with the Jazz. He would probably thrive in a Thibodeau or Popovich system. He would learn or he would ride the pine permanently. In fact, if he could just do a couple things to change his game I’d love to keep him: Don’t reach in. Just play D with your feet, stay between your man and the basket, and keep your hands up high. Don’t ever shoot a three pointer unless we are more than 8 points ahead. Drive to the hole every time. Look for the easy dump pass near the hoop. And boom, CJ becomes a solid wing. Also, I’m not sure Favors and Kanter can develop unless we release a dominant ego like Big Al. Raja seemed to have issue also with Burks getting playing time over him, so honestly I’m just not sure that the ‘win now and develop for the future at the same time’ can work with the giant egos that are NBA players.
Replies: 15
Views: 481
15 Responses
Jazz are signing Blake Adearn, a quality shooter. Hope this means CJ status looks bad for the remainder of season! Seems insignificant but this is a pretty big move.
The Jazz are about a .500 team right now. If we keep this core together for awhile, it stands to reason that the young players will continue to get better, and that at some point we will be good enough to be a 4th, 5th, or 6th seed in the west.
I think were one young point guard, and one more wing shooter away from being an elite team, in the next few years.
Point Guard: Marshall/Lillard?
Shooting Guard:
Bradley Beal (likely gone before we pick), Jeremy Lamb, Austin Rivers, Terrence Ross?
I’d rather build through the draft, then make trades where you typically give up as much as what your getting back.
The trade exception will probably be used this summer as well. I’m very curious to see how KOC decides to use it.
I expect this team will look much different next season.
This is probably one of the greatest posts I have seen in a while!! Well put well said and agree 100%.
But also I would say the reason we foul so much relates directly to Jefferson. I noticed it multiple times in last nights game where people picked up fouls trying to rotate to Jefferson man and they either have to foul him or run back to there man and sometimes foul there man cause they have to try to over commit
Great Post!!!
I purposely skipped the Jazz game last night, the first game I’ve missed that I could’ve watched. Chose to watch Bubba down the stretch at Augusta – and it turns out I made the right decision.
Back to the Jazz – it’s been extremely painful to watch them as of late, not so much on the offensive end but their AWFUL CLOSE OUT Defense! Teams no where to pick apart the Jazz. The Pick n’ Roll and the penetrate “kick out” wide open 3 pointer.
It starts with Jefferson and Miles IMO. Jefferson is HORRID as we’ve discussed at any type of defense and Miles can’t guard a tree.
So, no this team sucks right now and they’re not even fun to watch. Trade Jefferson and bring in some defensive intensity!
Well done KC. The answer is… no. And that’s pretty easy. We have a good young core that has the potential to be very good in the next few years, but we’re clearly missing pieces. We need a young, reliable PG that sees the floor and can get everyone involved. We need some reliable outside shooters.
We have a handful of players now that we’d be better off without. CJ and Howard have expiring contracts, and I think Bell and Watson should be moved for anything we can get. I strongly feel that Jefferson needs to be dealt, but I think we should get a solid wing player in return. I don’t believe it has to be an “elite” player, because I’d have to be a homer to believe Jefferson is truly an all-around elite player. He’s good on offensive, but not elite overall.
Harris… I was all about trading him too, but if he could come off the bench as an energy combo guard, I think it would be a big asset to this team. I don’t like him as the starting point guard past this year and maybe part of next year, though.
To answer the original question, NO, I don’t think that the Jazz are good enough. I think that they need the two draft picks this year, and possibly a 3rd by trading Jefferson. They would have a great salary position and talent for the ages.
I think we saw the answer tonight we barely squeked it out tonight. And in no way because of Jefferson.
Great post! I do think were good enough for playoffs, infact I think we could be the only bottom seed to pull an upset if we make it. We have beat the best teams in the league this year when we click . I really believe the reason jazz appear so bi polar is because half of our talent thats needed to win games is learning how to play in the nba. In a 7 game series hayward and favors know exactly what to expect after the first game , and can go full throttle using 100% of their talent .
I think as the roster stands the Jazz deserves to be at the playoffs, certainly if you look at other teams that are going to be there, they hold themselves up will against half of those teams. The only thing that might stop getting their is a few silly results earlier in the season
That said I don’t think as the team stands that I see this team improving much from a Playoff contending team to one that can realistically fight for championships without some changes.
I like Big Al, but my problem with him is that we expect him to be the star for this team. He’s not a star on any team. He is at best a player that should be the 2nd or 3rd best player on the team. We don’t have enough players shooting above 50% efficiency. Much of our best players use the same part of the floor.
At different parts of the season our PG’s have played well, just never at the same part of the season. Early on we were calling for Watson to start ahead of Harris, now some are not wanting him to be anywhere near the court.
I like CJ but last year we were expecting a lot from him. Last season we had a poor bench, if we had a bench at all with injuries and all. Outside of Favors, whom we acquired late on, we expected Miles to be the instigator off the bench. Thats a lot of pressure to have time and time again. If he played well, Jazz could win, if he didn’t – Jazz lost. That could have been easier for him to handle if he had others around him to help, he didn’t. To expect him, someone who is inconsistent, to win games was a lot to ask. This season we expect Miles to continue to have a similar impact with far less minutes to go around.
Here’s 7 minutes, score 10 points. Don’t miss.
CJ is a role player nothing more nothing less, and he needs time to adapt to that diminished role. People need to stop blaming him for losses, our weaknesses are in other areas now. Our PG’s play is unpredictable. We have no star’s on this team, so everybody has to play well, and when someone doesn’t its noticeable.
Best(WORST) comment on this post:
Steven: “CJ needs time to adapt.”
LOl!!!!!!!!! Hahahahahahahahaha!!!! OMG Are you f*cking serious?!?!?
Then Steven says: “people need to stop blaming him for our losses. Pie weaknesses are in other areas.”
LOL!!!!!!
Hey guys, I think Steven IS CJ miles!!!
*our, not “pie”. Damn autocorrect
I agree with you Steven , it really bothers me that everyone blames Cj for all our losses . This team has so many areas that need work . This is a team game whether ya all like it or not . Cj isnt the only one that is makin mistakes . Our bench is makin alot of mistakes right now , we cant even have a good free throw night . The defense is not keepin up with the 3s from good 3 point shooting teams . Plus Big Al keeps us in games that we would have lost .
I agree that Big Al needs to put forth more energy in the defense area and Cj does some silly fouls . But if you watch these game more closely you might see that there are others that are doin the same things that you say you hate abot these two guys . I am talkin about others besides Watson .
Cj didnt even play last night and we still almost lost that game , if not for the effort by Devin Harris . Oh and we did play some tough defense at the last 2-3 minutes . So I cannot not see how you can blame Cj for that .
I do believe that Cj is a great bench player and hope that he will be able to stay . I like his effort to play in the offence . His defense does need some work , but like I said before so does everyone on this team .
I still believe that we have a great core of guys and I would like to pick up a more consistant shooter on the wings .
Just my 20 cents worth . Go Jazz I still believe in ya !!!!!!
Nick Knows All my point is that now CJ’s minutes have gone down and his opportunities to jack up shots like he did in the past have also gone down we need to stop blaming him for the losses. He was never much of a starter but he used to get almost as many minutes as a starter, now he maybe gets a quarter here, 2 quarters there. As a result he is being forced to adapt his game. Some games he is expected to do nothing more than defend, which has never been his game. Lack of minutes, changing your play while you are on the floor that takes time to adapt. So yeah sure laugh all you want but if you are blaming CJ all the time for the losses who else is not producing when he isn’t on the court.
I love Big Al but he’s on a contract 3 times bigger than CJ (and rightfully so) and he is a bigger player for the Jazz but he needs to get more points on the board than the number of shots he shoots up, and not just against the weaker teams. Whether he likes it or not he is our key offensive player the Jazz don’t have the luxury of winning often when he on 19 points from 21 shots. Or 14 points for 24 shots against a team like the Lakers. He also needs to defend better. Defense is more than just a couple of blocked shots a game. A blocked shot can still end up in opposition hands. Its about standing in the right areas and not letting people go around you. Its about making sure that your teammates don’t have to come off their man to help you. A number of times I have seen him put the effort in defense for a few minutes in the 4th quarter but maybe if he put the same effort earlier the game wouldn’t be so close.
I love Hayward but early on in the season he would defer to his teammates on offense early in games, now that he’s not doing that so much the Jazz have better chances of wins because they are a little bit less predictable than they were.
Harris has improved a lot lately but all season long everyone of our PGs has allowed opposition PGS to score a lot of points against us.
If you are blaming the man who is the 8th or 9th man on your team for losses that says a lot about your team.
Well, no CJ, Watson, Howard or Bell for the Houston game and everyone was fantastic. Al only took 15 shots, was 6-15, but played great defense. Hayward had 29, DeMarre brought energy and Millsap was efficient. Favors had 10 ptson 5 shots, 11 rebounds. Harris struggled a bit but Tinsley was a calming influence.
If the Jazz can play like that more often, then they WILL win and they WILL deserve to be in the playoffs.