Meet
Starless
Posted by: KCJones on September 24th, 2012
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.So I was watching the NBARank on ESPN for our beloved Utah Jazz players. And we finished up with our highest-ranked player at #44. And I got to thinking about winning championships (which I would hope is the Jazz FO ultimate goal). Very rarely do teams win championships without a star player. The last I can really think of one is 2004 with the Detroit Pistons. And Chauncey Billups probably came pretty close to stardom for them.
So I thought I would break down the NBA in terms of groups of players and just see where the ‘experts’ stuck our players, and what that might mean in terms of our future success. Of course there are 30 teams across the NBA and the player quality distribution is not even–some teams have 2 or more stars while others do not even have five starters. So here’s my grouping breakdown:
The Stars (Rank 1-10):Very few players are truly stars. Stars are players that you can’t pay enough. Their production on the court merits them a salary higher than the max allowed. They are the top players at their position. They are the face of the NBA, the names everyone knows. They make things happen, they carry their teams to victory, they get all the calls, and, if history is any guide, you very very rarely win championships without one. Jazz players in this category:
The All-Stars (Rank 11-45, 30 total):If you took the stars out, and you made two teams with three-deep at each position, you’d have your next 30 guys. Your All-Stars. These guys can appear to be stars on teams without a top-10 real star. They are your second options, guys that can carry your team for stretches, make big plays and give solid, consistent production. Jazz players in this category:
The Starters (Rank 46-150, 105 total):Obviously stars and all-stars are going to start and play major minutes, but this group is comprised of the guys that fill out the rest of the starting lineups. They are solid contributors, usually excelling at a particular role or skill, but may not be able to carry your team. Since they cover such a large range, you have a wider range of quality. Guys towards the lower end of this range are about your average NBA player. Jazz players in this category:
The Sixth Man (Rank 151-180, 30 total):The sixth man usually gets the most time off the bench in the game, is a solid scorer and a contributor to the team’s success. Jazz players in this category:
The Rotation Players (Rank 180-270, 90 total):These guys fill out your bench players who get in the game on a regular basis, backing up a starter. They are guys 7, 8 and 9 on your bench. Often young rookies or old vets, but sometimes players who have survived in this role in their career. Usually guys who have had to be a little more gritty, give little more hustle, have a little more energy because they lack the size, athleticism or refined skill of the players they are backing up. Jazz players in this category:
The Scrubs (Rank 270+, about 180-230 total):These guys round out your rosters. They are the emergency backups if a starter or regular backup goes out with injury. They usually have a glaring defiency in their game, but are decent in other areas. Jazz players in this category:
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Some teams, like our Jazz, have to play an All-star as our star, since we have no real star.
Now I don’t know how many of you have ever played the game Stratego, but I kind of think of an NBA team like that. A star trumps an all-star. An all-star trumps a starter, etc.
So the question for us as Jazz fans is at what point does a starless team trump a team with two stars, an all-star and some starters? Do two all-stars and three starters trump? Four all-stars and three starters? Can we really do it without a star?
According to the #NBARank of our players, we’re a team with a borderline All-Star in Al Jefferson (though many fans would disagree on account of his defense), four bona-fide starters in Millsap, Favors, Gordon and Mo-Will (which creates another problem with player position overlap–we have to play one guy out of position–Millsap–to play our best five players), a sixth man (Marvin Williams), and three solid bench guys (Foye, Kanter, Burks).
I think the hope is that Derrick Favors and/or Gordon Hayward can make the jump to All-Star or Star, and Kanter and Burks improve from rotation players. Al Jefferson is what he is at this point, as is Paul Millsap, Mo Williams and Marvin Williams.
All this makes me wonder whether the Jazz will ever be in true championship contention if we don’t change something fundamental within the organization. That drive to really REALLY win a championship. I look at Prorokhov of the Nets. They sucked. Yet he went all-in in trying to get a star. None of that ‘we’ll be good in 5-10 years after we suck and get draft picks and develop them’. No, he first went after LeBron (no dice), then Carmelo (Knicks ‘won’ that one), then did the trade for D-Will. Then once he had him, he overspent to keep guys (Lopez, Humphries), still tried to get another star (Dwight Howard), overspent and did bad long-term trades to grab complementary players (Gerald Wallace, Joe Johnson). Yes, he had to pay a premium for it, and they had a lot of failed attempts at big names, but now he has real assets, a chance at winning now (not later), and attracting players because players KNOW that playing for a team that’s willing to spend more than another team gives them an advantage from the start. When was the last time the Jazz went after a big name star? I’m just thinking out loud here, but if it’s true that you need a star to win a championship, I’m thinking the Nets will win one before the Jazz. Sometimes I think the Jazz are content to be a regular season winning team, win a few rounds of the playoffs, and go on vacation.
Let’s hope the recent changes in the Jazz (Greg Miller taking the lead, new GM, new Coach, etc.) can lead to a change in goals and taking some chances to attain them, because I want to be a fan of a team that REALLY wants to win a championship. We’re going to have a ton of cap space this off-season with only our core four (plus Marvin Williams if he opts in). I’m hoping we can target a true star (Chris Paul?) that can lead us to that promised championship land. I personally want to hear the Jazz in the news, trying to get that star player that can push us over the edge.
So with that said, looking forward to the next offseason, I think its time to trade Al Jefferson and Millsap (if he won’t take an extension) and any other player besides Gordon and Favors for picks or players that can be used to trade for that star that we’ll need if we really want to REALLY win a championship.
What are your thoughts? Are you happy watching the Jazz win a bunch of regular season games and then lose to the teams with the stars in the playoffs? Or are you willing to give a little now, take a risk, and go for broke to try to win a championship for once?
Replies: 15
Views: 714
15 Responses
The Jazz have had “stars” (Malone, Stockton, D-Will) and a hall of fame coach, and still couldn’t win a title. It’s impossible to guarantee a championship no matter what approach you take.
@Jason I would agree with that kind of. We all know Malone and Stockton ran right into the best player to ever play the game. So we had the roster just bad timing. D-Will was not really a true “superstar” until the year before he left. By then we all ready had some pretty bad chemistry with Boozer saying he was leaving, AK having vacation plans before the season was over, and the FO pretty much saying saving money is more important then keeping our roster intact with quality young players.(which was brought on by them and the bad contracts they gave out)
@KC I liked this post a lot. I think by next year (hopefully) our young guys will take a major leap. If we were to get rid of a certain person I think even our 6th man and fringe players would prove better then even we expected. I do not know if anyone listens to Dan Patrick but he was talking today about NFL QB’s. Now I know not the same sport but what he said applies. He basically stated that everyone that comes in the league has the skills or they would not be even in the league and drafted where they were. The thing that they need is confidence. The way they get this confidence is to play the game
I like this post because it made me think. Thank you for that KC. I still would take 5 guys with heart over one All-star.
Ryker i would to but we barely have heart on the team outside of carril.sap doesnt even play with heart anymore he is way laid beck and doesnt care at all. Might as well get rid of him and, big al and get some one with heart and star power in here. Im still liking paul george
Trevor i agree with you that Big Al should be traded, I also agree that demarre has heart. but Paul still has fight in him. You can simply see it in is progression as a player. He started as a second rounder and look where he is now. It’s never easier being a 6′9 undersized power forward but every offseason Paul comes back with a new feature to his game (This last offseason it was his jumper shot). Paul heart is a pretty well recognized thing around the league. That’s why so many teams fight to get him. The reason we can’t make a move to ease the log jam that is our front court is because no body want Big Al and the Jazz refuse to trade Paul. Many people think Paul as made all the improvements he has to make and then he will start to platue. It may be hard to see because he keeps to himself and does his job most of the time, he’s a quiet job, but I wouldn’t mistake that for laid back. Is desire shows in close situations when the game is on the line.
On a little bit of a different note this is why I think Favors, Kanter, and Paul would be very complimentary as a front court rotation. You have size, presence, and rebounds in Kanter; Raw defensive and offensive strength in Favors, and hustle and desire in Milsap. All very different player types. Big Al just clogs that offense.
sorry It was late when I posted that *he’s a quiet guy not job
They are all diffrent players but, i didnt see improvement from sap last year he was inconsistent no drive and, very passive thru out the season. Like i said in the other post ill show him love as long as he is a jazz man but i tjink the best way to grow as a team would be to trade both of them. That way favors can play his true position power forward and not center. You also get a great player in return kanter evans and favors can all grow faster, and we can move on as a team.
@Trevor I would agree with you on Paul there was a different Paul then I was used to but I saw the hustle Paul when he played with Favors. I saw the hustle out of him when Carrol was in the lineup. I think he is a follower almost. Like if someone is dogging it he dogs it. If someone hustles he does. Ths is not a trade A remark this is a start Millsap Favors remark
Great post @KC.
Millsap and Favors held teams to 94 points per game, then you substitute Marvin for CJ, Mo for Harris, Carroll for Howard, Burks for Bell, Foye for Watson…..that number drops Id say, to about 90 maybe. And add Kanter and Evans getting more minutes. Top 5 defense because Jazz dumped their weakest defender and replace mediocre and inconsistent players with much better ones, especially defensively.
Im not joking when I say Jazz can compete for a championship this year.
With this group, I think the way to compete for a championship IS through being a top defensive team, like you said, Omar. (And Al-Jeff is the odd man out in that scenario). I’m not an Al hater. I just don’t think his game meshes with the rest of the team and their strengths. Maybe we’ll see something though this year with new ballers from three in Mo and Marvin and Foye (and Burks and Hayward progressing).
Still, Chris Paul is my dream star complement to this core four, and hey! he’s a free agent at season’s end and hey! we’re going to have loads of cap space cash to spend and hey! four young high draft pick guys on value contracts so there’s STILL space to re-sign guys we like or go after other free agents. /sigh wishful thinking. Most likely we’ll just have to hope our young guys develop into something special and that we can keep them come free agent time.
It will be an interesting year. It seems that we got tougher defensively while adding some 3 point shooting that will spread out defenses and allow our bigs to work down low. They dont list us with any Supposed All Stars, but when you look around at the lists, we have a depth that most teams dont have. The All star is over rated, you saw a 3 All Star team lose two yrs ago, and struggle last year. We have seen Two all star teams go down just as much as any other team. What our team needs is chemistry, which comes with time. Can an All Star fix all our problems, not even close. Would we be better off with an All Star, depends on the all star and the supporting cast. Depending upon who you talk to we may have two up and coming all stars, so wouldnt it be smart to keep the supporting cast together to build that chemistry as they develop? I dont have all the answers but I dont feel the post addressed everything either.
I think the reason we need a superstar is because we need someone who when the going gets tough he plays harder. He does not wilt. He wills his team to victory. I do not think that Superstars are under rated at all. I think you gotta have one to win a championship of 3-4 All Stars.
The only former All Star who I would not even call an All Star is Mo and he only got in cause two people got hurt ahead of him. And he happened to be playing with the greatest player in the world. That helps out just a little bit. Also the reason to have a superstar. They just make everyone better
The Jazz would be extremely foolish if they did NOT make a play for CP3!! I think thats a great idea @KC. Whats the worse, he says no? Then well move on, but we at least need to try. We basically are play Al CP3 money?! In the ESPN trade machine you can straight up trade Al for CP3……if only…..
How sweet would it be if CP3 did what DWill couldnt—win a championship!! They are always being evaluated against each other, so maybe there is a part of him that would want to do that. CP3 would be immortalized in SLC.
But for now….
Remember when teams were scared to play in SLC??? Jazz can get that back playing dominant elite defense! And in a 7 game series, all the pressure would be on opposing teams to win their own home games, cuz beating the Jazz in SLC is next to impossible. That’s what I envision…with a move or two….cough, cough, Al…
Any post with a Stratego reference gets 5 stars from me.
There is one glaring difference between the Millers and Prokhorov and that is that Prokhorov has far, FAR deeper pockets. The Jazz don’t have the means to over spend for guys and still remain a lucrative franchise in this market which is why, for the most part, they have to develop from within.