Meet
What IF…
Posted by: KCJones on November 5th, 2012
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.We had traded Al and picked up Lillard in the draft.
What IF, last year, instead of fighting and scratching for an 8th seed playoff spot and a sweep at the hands of the Spurs, the Jazz traded away Jefferson for future lottery picks or other young players and as a result we ended worse than the Golden State Warriors, got their pick (and ours), and came away from the lottery with our missing piece, a young, good PG Damian Lillard?
That’s a future core of
Lillard
Burks
Hayward
Favors
Kanter
And pretend everything else happened like it did. Out with CJ, Howard, Bell, D. Harris, in with Mo Williams, Marvin Williams, Randy Foye and Kevin Murphy.
I listened to D. Locke’s latest Mythbusters podcast with Kevin Pelton about whether making the playoffs helps or hinders your future seasons. Kevin Pelton basically said ‘not really’.
So here’s the questions. How much better/worse are we this year with the difference being Damian Lillard in and Al Jefferson out? How much better/worse are we next year? The year after?
It obviously helps the salary cap space with a rookie salary (Lillard’s) replacing Al’s $15M. We lose the low post offense, but we gain a distributor, a P&R PG, and another outside threat in Damian Lillard, who frankly fits perfectly with our other players, better than Mo does and better than Al does.
Was trying so hard to win last year REALLY the right choice? I’m questioning it….
Replies: 17
Views: 465
17 Responses
I stated this when it happened but Kevin will still say I am stupid for bringing it up again. BUT I do not care. It did not matter that we made the playoffs to give our young guys experience cause they barely played! It took two games before Ty realized the difference Favors to make and it seemed to have slipped out of his small head this year. Burks and Kanter played in garbage time. Not that is was all pretty much garbage time haha. But it did us no good to go into a draft that was super deep and not have a pick.
But it also did not help that our GM was in a lame duck state during the whole off season either. Maybe something would have happened as well…
I’m a Jazz fan, i’m not a Golden State warrior fan, we made the Playoffs because we have to made the Playoffs, EVERY YEAR. Period…………
Well I for one would be much more excited about the future if we had Lillard right now instead of Al Jefferson, and I think that’s what would’ve happened had we traded Big Al away at last year’s trade deadline. PLUS, Kanter and Favors would have gotten some great development time. Lillard would complement Kanter and Favors perfectly, as well as our new spot-up guys. All that, at least to me, outweighs the four playoff games I saw vs. the Spurs last year and any ‘playoff experience’ our team got from it.
I’m not for tanking, btw. If we had traded Al and still won games and made the playoffs, I would have been all for that too.
Remember when all off-season, a lot of us kept post trade scenarios??! This is why!!! We had our chance to into get into the draft, and we failed. AND no, I refuse to believe every trade include a member of the C4! Because number one, we don’t even play Burks, so I would guess an organization that does not value Burks would have traded him in a heartbeat. I all the insiders said Kanter was like 3 or 5 years away?! That was inaccurate!, but Jazz barely care about Hayward and Favors, so I would assume Burks and Kanter would have been traded pretty fast. The only good thing about having a passive FO, is that we didn’t lose any of the C4.
So many teams were dumping salary, you are telling me the Bobcats (who until the draft were trying to unload their pick) would not have traded the number 2 pick and Thomson (bad contract) for Al and Millsap???? Give me a break. We just over value the wrong players (see: CJ, Howard, Bell, Watson, Tinsley, Al).
Or trade Al and Millsap for multiple picks then package picks, etc. Well, you snooze you lose. Remember Lillard was not even seen as a lottery pick, once teams fall in love with guys, its hard to get their picks. That’s why we should have moved as soon as lottery was set, and while Al’s stock was higher. With each game that passes, I see his stock dropping. By deadline we will be lucky to get an unprotected 1st.
If… I love how we are so ready to trade away the #2 scoring center in the league for a draft pick… The grass is always greener on the other side. You are just going to give away one of the best centers? I don’t get this reasoning.
Also, your last comment totally negates your article. How could we have traded Al, got to the playoffs, and still get Lillard or a draft pick? Our record has nothing to do with Golden States (I don’t think we could have finished worse than them.)
@French Dude There is a difference between tanking and not winning. Hornets lost plenty of games last year and guess what they are 2-1 and fought tooth and nail with the Spurs. They right now are better then us and proved it without there two best players. So I would say they are heading in an all right direction and they lost games.
Also Blazers picked #6 and got Lillard. GS picked #7. So Jazz would have had to tangle with the Blazers.Al makes way too much to equal the deal.
If we could have worked it and got Lillard I’d be for it.
Gives us a PG of the future that I think will be great. He also played in Utah, so this was already a home for him. He may dream big and want to go to NY but he also knows what this place is about and could have chosen to stay. It forces minutes onto Kanter and Favors which I think could elevate them to their potential quicker. If you don’t play you generally do not progress.
A lot of ifs and hindsight, but I think Lillard has shown he is worth more then a 6th spot. Lets just see if it continues or if it turns into a Lin situation where it slacks off after the initial impression.
@KCJones: “I’m not for tanking, btw. If we had traded Al and still won games and made the playoffs, I would have been all for that too.”
If we would have traded Al last year before the deadline, we would have not made the playoffs. Why? Becuase if the jazz could have got back equal talent for Jefferson at whatever position AND a team willing to deal, you bet the jazz would have pulled. But that was obviously not the case. The case was I’m sure the jazz could have traded jefferson, but not for current, equal talent, so they kept him and made the playoffs. Something that I don’t think would have happened had the jazz made a trade involving him.
That said, trade him now! Or Millsap! Seeing how the offense is changing, it’s becoming more clear how important each possession is for each player. Meaning, when then get the ball, because each player from last year is averaging fewer possessinos, it’s critical how they use them. For someone like Al who is still inefficient per possession, it makes him being on the court even worse.
I do disagree with locke in saying “Who would score if Jefferson was gone?” I believe those points would easily be absorbed by other players. Especially highlighting the fact we brought in 3 savy vets who can all score. The key is to score those voided points at an effecient level. I don’t belive Mo can and will maintain efficient scoring levels. So that leaves Marvin, Hayward, Millsap, Favors, and co. Could Al’s points be absorbed by these players at an efficient level? I think so, imo.
@Omar: You’re like the Ron Paul of this forum. Very little of what you say makes sense, but I’m sure you have an underground cult-like following of people who for whatever reason like what you say. You seem like an old, senial old man who blabbers on about weird crap, but when it gets down to it, you make little sense. I would suggest re-reading anything you look to post. Then re-read it again. Then again. Until your senses come back to you. Your trade situations you pose are ripe for NBA2k12, but not for reality.
@Michael “I love how we are so ready to trade away the #2 scoring center in the league for a draft pick”
Are you sure about that? #2 Scoring Center huh?
Game 1 – Wright: 15 pts on 7-8. Al: 12 pts on 4-11.
Game 2 – Lopez: 19 pts on 9-16. Al: 10 pts on 5-13.
Game 3 – Duncan: 19 pts on 7-14. Al: 16 pts on 8-16.
Game 4 – Gasol: 22 pts on 6-11. Al: 11 pts on 5-10.
Dallas’ Brandan Wright was the BACKUP Center. And Robin Lopez??? Seriously?! Last night Marc Gasol took ONE more shot than Al and scored 11 MORE points. Gasol shot 10 Free throws in the game. Al has shot 6 free throws in FOUR games!
Let’s total this just for fun over the four games:
Al: 49 pts on 50 shots.
Opposing Centers: 75 points on 49 shots.
So I’m calling bull$#!t on ‘Al being a top 2 scoring center’. His percentage sucks for centers, and he never goes to the line! That’s why opposing centers are scoring so much more than Al on the same number of shots!
He doesn’t fit into any offense except POST-ISO Al, especially not an up-tempo get out and run type offense, and he absolutely sucks at defense. Why are all the centers scoring so much? Why are guards driving for easy layups at the hoop? Answer: BIG AL.
So what I was saying is, I think it would have been better long-term for the Jazz to have traded Big Al last year and picked up two more lottery picks and given Favors and Kanter more development time.
Now, take my comments in context here. If there were no Favors or Kanter behind him, I’d be all for overpaying to keep big Al, as I don’t think we could get a better center via free agency, being a small-market team and all. BUT, the situation is we have two #3 draft picks that can play Center that show promise NOW and probably have a higher ceiling that need development time on the court.
“We could have the PG of the future”, yeah, maybe, maybe not……….. the problem with most of the lottery teams in constant rebuild, is that they are forever lottery teams in constant rebuild………. if you have to lose, lose like the spurs in 96, for a Tim Duncan, but if not, PO is the rule, no lottery pick worth to miss the PO………. and we have already so many youngs tryingto have minutes, one more is too much, no first round last year was not a bad thing…………..
KCJones is right. I will say players like Al are few and far between. They bring skills and abilities to a team that few others possess. However, it becomes a question of skill vs. liability. I won’t recite the facts as KC already did that, but to sum up- AL is an inefficient player on offense and especially on defense. Not that putting up points is a bad thing, but look at Melo in Denver..when they traded him for EFFICIENT players from N they literally became a better team. Yes, Melo is doing fine in NY, but the system they have in NY will never win championships, imo.
I do think you can’t just trade jefferson for stupid picks or a young up and coming player and call it good. Those points he put up and the problems he created for the inside guys on other teams must be dispersed elsewhere, or that will only open up another weakness to be dealt with.
But should Al be traded? Yes. For a draft pick? Hell no. I don’t think KCJones situation of getting Lillard is plausible to predict now that everythying’s happened. Getting lillard is relying on many assumptions that frankly would have been and still are impossible to predict. But is the right player(s) avaialble for him on another team that would help the jazz become a better team by becoming more efficient? Who knows, and that is the difficult part.
I don’t know French Dude. The way the NBA is set up, a team can get caught in the quagmire that is seeds 6-10. Not good enough to ever get anywhere in the playoffs and not bad enough to get a decent lottery pick to improve your team. Houston is a prime example of a team over the last few years in this situation, fighting every year for an 8th seed, stagnant in team improvement because no new talent was coming in. It’s a sad fact that if you can’t be top-6ish that its better to be on the bottom. (They should’ve addressed this in the CBA, but they didn’t).
I think team culture decides whether you will develop the talent you get when you bottom out. OKC is an example of a team with smart FO, good culture, that took young draft picks, developed them and went from SUCK to Finals in a few years time. The Kings on the other hand, keep racking up the draft picks but continue to suck. So I don’t think you can say it’s ALWAYS one thing, and with the Jazz organization, I’d classify them with OKC and the Spurs, not Sacramento or Golden State.
As far as Al/Millsap as your main guys, I think we know what their ceiling is. It’s a 6-8 seed in the playoffs. The defense is just too poor. So should we really ride that forever, or see what the ceiling is for our younger guys by letting them develop? I realize we’ll probably suck for a while until they develop offensively. I don’t care. They are better defensively NOW, so it’s almost a wash, and once they DO develop their offense, we’ll be a better team.
@Ben
It was a hypothetical What If…basically, the question is would you be more excited for our team’s future if we had Lillard right now instead of Jefferson. I think it’s a plausible what if…but everyone’s getting caught up on if that was really a possibility rather than the actual question. oh well
i didn’t say ALWAYS, because i said for MOST of the lottery teams, and didn’t use the word EVERY
for OKC, good team but with the GIGANTIC luck to get Durant, you get one Durant once every fifty years, and do you really see them in finals last year, IF, the blazers had taken him instead of oden
the NBA is what the NBA is, 6 to 8 is good for me, not 9 to 10, and sometimes with good chemistry we could be in the upper top 4 or 5, it’s thr rule for small market…… but sometimes, sometimes the 8 kick the 1, and it’s a reel fun, even the golden state warriors know that……..
I’m late to the party but here is my 2 cents:
The thing with this team is that there are plenty of other guys not named Al that can put the ball in the hole. So, hypothetically, his offense isn’t really needed. Add to that, if you trade him, ball sharing, tempo, and game flow will probably increase therefore creating better efficiency. My point is that you don’t necessarily have to replace his point production through the trade. There are multiple players already on the team capable of filling the gap.