Meet
Millsap, should come off the bench
Posted by: Railen on April 20th, 2011
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.Guys, we all love Millsap. We do he is the heart and sole of the team. He embodies it, and I’m not making this post to hate on him. But I see a lot of you saying he should stay our starting PF next year but I think you’re wrong and here is why.
Locked did some research and looked at PER allowed to the man you are guarding in the NBA and got some surprising results. You should all go look at them over at locked on Jazz. http://www.nba.com/jazz/features/locked_on_jazz.html
Out of 201 players Millsap was ranked clear up at 194 as solidly the worst 1 on 1 defender on the Jazz team. We all saw it during the season too. The Jazz were just getting murdered by opposing power forwards. It isn’t for a lack of effort. Or a lack of skill or heart. He just isn’t big enough to guard starting power forwards at that position. You know where Favors would of ranked on that list if he had gotten enough minutes to qualify? 4th.
I’ll quote what locked says about looking at statistics and good way to tell how valid they are.
“The key to any statistic is does it pass the eyeball test. If it is an offensive stat you better see Wade, James, Nowitski and Durant somewhere near the top or it doesn’t have value. If others who you wouldn’t expect are grouped in with those players then you should re-evaluate those players rather than dismiss the stat.
Let’s start with opponent’s PER when a player is guarded that player. The best in the NBA is Andre Iguodala, followed by Dwight Howard, Loul Deng and LeBron James. That is a pass. The 5th best at holding down their opponent was Andrei Kirilenko.
This makes a strong argument for AK as the best defender on the Jazz and one of the best in the NBA.
Flip it around and the five worst in the NBA are the undersized DuJuan Blair, Andris Biedrins, Charlie Villanueva, Ed Davis and Andrea Bargnani. Pass on the eye ball test again.”
I think if the Jazz stick with Millsap as are starting power Forward we will be shooting ourselves in the foot. He can get just as many minutes off the bench and he will be able to be our First offensive option off the bench capable of just torching other teams second units much like Lamar Odom / Manu Ginobili. He would also have much less trouble guarding other teams backup PF’s as most of those are undersized or just not great offensively at that position anyways.
Or as I’ve said before we can see how he does as a SF he has been slowly making his game more perimeter oriented the last couple seasons and is absolutely deadly from 15′ right now. What the Jazz actually do, rather it’s keep him, trade him, start him, bring him in off the bench or move him to SF remains to be seen.
Replies: 20
Views: 504
20 Responses
Millsap has made it known he doesn’t want to come off the bench.
I predict he will be starting next season, at either the power forward or small forward. Unless, of course, he ends up being dealt. On a franchise like the Jazz, a guy isn’t just given a starting role from day one because he was a top pick. It didn’t happen for Stockton. It didn’t happen for Williams. It didn’t happen for Hayward. Favors will have to beat out Paul for the spot. The coaches aren’t going to just give him the position. That’s not how the Jazz do things.
During his career in San Antonio, Ginobili has gone back and forth between starting, and coming off the bench. Normally, a guy like Odom would bitch if he had to come off the bench, but he knows how good he has it in LA LA LAND, and has accepted the sixth man role.
Locke’s stats also indicate that Paul was are most productive player last season (with the exception of Evans, who got much less playing time).
You are correct Paul was the most efficient scorer on our team, and would probably be even more efficient going up against second stringers. But the defensive deficiencies are just staggering. Favors has already shown he is infinitely better then Paul at Interior defense. It wouldn’t just be handing him the roll. The numbers back up the change.
I think people are over blowing Paul’s comment a bit. I’m certain they could sell him on being one of the best if not the best sixth man in the league.
The lineup Corbin used with Millsap at small forward, Favors at the power forward, and Jefferson at center was pretty effective on the floor. That could be a possible starting lineup for next year. It will be interesting to see if Paul’s defensive deficiencies are more or less glaring at small forward. We shouldn’t just pick on Paul though. While Jefferson is a good shot blocker, he has some serious shortcomings on the defensive side of the ball as well. Our guards, all in all, were pretty bad at defending the perimeter last season. I don’t want to see Paul become the sole scape goat for all our defensive issues. Because those problems are prevalent all across the roster.
@Railen: As I have said many times Sap was voted by the players and coaches to be the MVP of the team. That said I am so glad you are not the coach..
So if you were the coach Anderson you would have a poor defensive center in Jefferson starting and then have a even poorer defensive PF. That sounds like a great idea. Enjoy a combined interior defense between the 2 that makes guys like Ben Wallace look like natural born scorers.
Anderson I love Paul, I love what he has done for the team, and it hurts me to say it but he just isn’t big enough to play the PF position as a starter.
I think the coach will disagree. Alot of thise stats were before Favors came along. That trio whatever minutes or wherever they play will be fine.
Jefferson and Millsap is an improvement on Okur and Boozer defensively, and that front court combination got the Jazz to the Western Conference Finals. Yes, I would start those guys (and give Favors about 30 minutes a night off the bench, assuming he doesn’t foul himself out before).
Starting him at SF is a lot different then starting him at PF Anderson, he isn’t undersized for that role but it’s completely unknown how well he will be able to do it for a full season. Hopefully with an off season to prepare for it he is able too. However when we were experimenting with him at SF the more talented SF’s in the league Torched him (Gerald Wallace).
That being said, it was with only a few games and a week or two total trying to convert to the SF position. We don’t yet know if he can be a starting SF in this league, we do know that he falls short as a starting PF due to his lack of size.
I’ve said this for ages. I love Millsap. He embodies Jazz basketball. But to me, Paul is one of the top-5 6th men in the league. He relies on energy and hustle, not size. That makes him not so great a starter, but an awesome backup.
That said, we don’t (yet) have a good enough replacement starter, although I think Favors becomes good enough by next season’s end. And at that point, sadly, we will probably see the Jazz do something with Millsap unless he is happy being one of the top-5 6th men off the bench for us.
Favors blocked Gasol people, and with ease. Boozer couldn’t do that and Millsap can’t do that. Think about that.
Anyway, I think the question of what to do with Millsap is pretty obvious right now. Start him at PF. Favors can give backup minutes to both Al and Millsap to continue developing. But the future, whether that’s sooner or later, is Favors at PF.
Let me rephrase. Millsap IS a great starter, and I think he could start at PF for a lot of teams, especially ones with bigger Centers to minimize his size disadvantage. BUT, Favors will develop a good offensive game and become better than Millsap.
I do not dissagree that in time Favors will pass Millsap by, but it has not happened yet. You guys only read what you want to read, and leave the rest out. So, lets add the things you left out of your post.
Fes was rated number 3, one before Favors at 4 for defense. Does that mean we should take out Al and put Fes in to start??? Are you nuts? You have to look at complete game, matchups, minutes (since 35 mins of banging in the paint will probably lessen your numbers defensively), offense, defense etc etc.
Now lets look at the Lines you guys left out. “Power forwards shot 53% against Millsap this season. Too his credit he did outscore and out produce opposing power forwards.” Hmmm, doesnt sound nearly as bad as it did before when you talk about how he does defensively. If he is out producing the other PF’s then dont you think he is doing his job? Add in that he is the most productive on the offensive side on our team, and it even sounds a little less dramatic than you made it out to be.
Boozers last season, when Millsap played much better defense why didnt you take Boozer our and replace him with Millsap? As for undersized, heck they had him playing center back then also..
Those numbers can be somewhat decieving as well, when you consider how we had nothing going on in our perimeter. When we are losing the perimeter game, not points in the paint, and people are raining 3 pointers all night long, I guess that was Milsaps fault too. Why dont the numbers reflect that? Make any sense? Doesnt to me, there is something missing here. Instead of rating a player on just offense or just defense, lets rate total game.. Just my take.
Favors will have to beat Millsap out of that position, and that will take a few years. Millsap will be our starting PF next season, he’s earned it and is much better than Favors.
In a few years Favors may start, but he has to earn it first, and that means he has to beat Millsap out of it. Millsap may be undersized but he uses his speed to take on the larger PF’s.
Take into account defensive numbers include weak teams. Who cares how Paul performs against the Bobcats? The team has to be built to beat the elite teams. Those teams include 4s like Nowitzki, Aldridge, Gasol, Duncan, Garnett…pattern? 6′10+ and score at will against Paul. You can’t tell me you actually watched the games this year and didn’t notice this. His starting position should rest solely on whether he can keep up with the 3’s…Lebron, Durant, Pierce etc.
The consensus from previous posts seems to be Favors is the Jazz’s 4 of the future, only differences being when he takes over. Does it make any sense to develop your future 4 by starting someone else? As mentioned before, Paul would eat other benches alive if he didn’t work out at the 3. Get 20 a night from him while not being scared Gasol drops 30.
What does perimeter defense have to do with this post?
What does Perimeter D have to do with this post? Why dont you go back and look at all the games this season. I wont say we won them all, but we won most games on points in the paint. That includes the teams your so worried about. You guys only want to look at one aspect of a game, that is fine. But if we are putting up more points in the paint than other teams consistantly, then we are losing games some where else. Oh, that would be the Perimeter. When It comes down to the rest of the team performing well, and then Gasol puts a hurt on Millsap for the win, then you worry. Thats not the case.
When you want to fix something, you fix the bigger problems first if you want immediate change, not the little things here or there.. When you talk about Millsap being owned, its only a hand full of games compared to the big picture. You guys make it sound like its a nightly problem..
Next I am sure you will say, well how does Favors develop off the bench. He will still get plenty of minutes considering he can play both Center and Forward positions which actually helps us out, keeps the Fes’s on the bench and it develops Favors to play whichever position we need him in at the time. This season was a good season for Al, no injuries. To keep it that way, we need someone who can come in and rest both Millsap and Al.. It also keeps them from burning out. We have rarely if ever had that in the past.
When Favors actually beats Millsap out, or there is a matchup problem then Favors will get the nod.. Millsap will be understanding of that. Happens to everyone. Until that time Millsap is the starter. He is the better player for the moment. If you let it transition as it should, in time Millsap will come off the bench and wont be effected by it. Do it now when he is the better choice, you may rip the heart out of him. Some players have the body and skill to be the best. Some make up for lack of size and skill with heart. That is Millsap, tear out the heart and you have a Fes type player..
Other issue is nothing is respected if not earned. Hand over the starting position without Favors earning it, and he may not develop into the player you want him to be. He is already messed up in the head with all of last yrs trade rumors and then finally being traded. Dont make him a mental case.. Let things transition, and you will get the Favors you want. Hand it off too soon, and you may get a Boozer cruzer. A guy with all sorts of potential, but cruzes because he knows he can put up some numbers, and never gets hungry to play the game..
Millsap needs to go back to the bench plain and simple, I know people dont want to hear it because Favors isnt as polished offensively, but frankly we are rebuilding anyways and Favors is the future, not Millsap, not unless he is willing to go back to the bench or get much more athletic overnight to guard opposing 3’s.
I know its tough on the ego for guys like Millsap who have worked so hard, look at all the opposing players many of whom have accepted the 6th man role and played well like Crawford, Terry, Odom, and Ginobli, they could all start elsewhere too. THe Jazz are built on team basketball and the best team concept right now is Favors can actually gaurd opposing starting 4’s and Millsap cannot. Go back and look at the numbers and Millsap cannot gaurd starting quality pf and Favors can, its a tough pill to swallow but all the empirical evidence points to it.
If Milsap is truly a team guy then he needs to swallow his ego and play the reserve role on the bench, he got his shot at starting this season, he did good in some respects but faultered in others like defense and rebounding. WHy do you think the Jazz even considered trading for Favors if they felt certain of Pauls starter status? It needs to happen, hopefully Corbin and man up and be honest with Paul and he can man up and accept his role.
I don’t get the argument that Favors can’t develop off the bench. Millsap came off the bench for a few years and look at him now, though undersized, easily a complete player and good starter. With Favor’s potential, if he knows he has to work for his starting job, he can develop into the complete beast we know he can be. But he has to be motivated to put forth the effort. Millsap got where he is today becuase he worked his butt off for a few years to be starter-worthy. If something is just given to you, like some a suggesting we give the starting job to Favors, the motivation to improve yourself is lessened. There’s no question that with some development, Favors will beat out Millsap for the starting spot, but don’t just hand it to him before he deserves it. Millsap developed coming off the bench, and Favors will too.
If this were only about developing players than yes but alot of the merit of starting Favors over Millsap is the fact that Favors is much better equiped physically to play starting 4s than Paul because of Pauls small size. In other words starting Favors at the 4 will lead to better defense against starting pf and Paul can still get his production off the bench without the starting 4s destroying us.
@Kaleb: That is why we have a handfull of coaches to make the call.Favors is not even twenty years old yet and is still maturing. Look at Stockton, Kobe, and others who did not play much their first year. Takes time and patience. I was wishing last year in the draft that they could have got Favors. When AK was roumored to go to the Nets I penciled in Harris and Favors in the trade. With these two and a couple of draft picks I think the Jazz in a couple of years will come out smelling like a rose. Maybe the Nets will too..
LK, I think your right. Hope we do whats needed this draft season though. Its going to be a tough one. I think KOC will do the right thing though. Guess we shall see. Still in dream land hoping the balls bounce us 1 and 2 in the draft.. Wont be long now and I will face up to reality. Just hope we dont slide to 9 and 14.. Been our luck..
Patrick is absolutely right and is the only person who has presented a solid argument. If something ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Here’s a hint to these idiots Van, Railin and Jupit. The Utah Jazz don’t lose games in the paint. They lose games from the three point line. Take a look at any opponent we play (the one exception being the Lakers) and you will see that the overwhelming majority of their points come from the perimiter. The overwhelming majority of Jazz points come from the paint, or, PAUL MILLSAP AND AL JEFFERSON.
Millsap gets better every year. He can be an extremely scrappy defender. Problem is he gets called for bull!@#$% fouls any time he does play defense. How much do you want to bet the coaching staff has told him to err on the side of offense? Millsap missed six games this season. How many of those games did we win? Go ahead and take a guess. The coaches want him to concentrate on offense, lest he foul out, after which WE WOULD INEVITABLY LOSE.
Refs don’t like him because a guy his size shouldn’t be able to do all the !@#$% he does, and the ref’s job is to make sure the status quo is maintained (the 8 teams that have won championships in the last 35 years will continue to win the championships).
This was Millsap’s first year as a starter. He will continue to improve, as he does every year. Why don’t we take a look at solving our real problem–shooting the basketball (Sap has the highest FG% on our team per minutes played btw)