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Debunking the Trades
Posted by: Chris on January 7th, 2011
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.Recently there have been a lot of posts here on UJ360 talking about our JAZZ trading for a number of players; however the most commonly talked-about targets are Tayshaun Prince, Richard Hamilton, Gerald Wallace and Andre Iguodala, with the basic idea being to trade Kirilenko straight up for Iguodala, trade him for Gerald Wallace and some baggage from the Bobcats, or trade him to the Pistons for Tayshaun and some baggage (or trade him and CJ Miles to the Pistons for Prince+Hamilton or in a 3-way with the Bobcats and other teams for Gerald Wallace and some other piece). Carl Landry’s name has come up, trading Fesenko has come up, trading Raja Bell has come up, etc. I’m trying to cover most of the bases.
At various points since the bulk of trade season opened I’ve been for or against many of these deals, but my basic stance at this point is that we’re just going to be moving forward with the team we currently possess.
In addition I’ll be just taking a nice brief overview of the Jazz team as a whole, and discussing what, other than a trade, can be done to make us better.
Okay, let’s get this post started with some excerpts from a spreadsheet I’m maintaining. Note: In each of these categories, a HIGHER number is a better statistic, except for Defensive Rating, where LOWER is better. Thanks to http://www.basketball-reference.com/ for generating the data used in this post.
Basic Statistical Analysis (updated 01-06)
| True Sht % | Reb/36 | Ast/36 | Pts/36 | Win Shares | WS/36 | O Rating | D Rating | |
| Andrei Kirilenko | 0.559 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 12.6 | 2.6 | 0.113 | 110 | 106 |
| Andre Iguodala | 0.517 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 13.6 | 2.2 | 0.114 | 108 | 105 |
| Gerald Wallace | 0.521 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 15.3 | 1.7 | 0.078 | 101 | 105 |
| Tayshaun Prince | 0.539 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 0.083 | 110 | 113 |
| Rip Hamilton | 0.514 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 18.8 | 0.9 | 0.053 | 104 | 113 |
| C.J. Miles | 0.505 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 18.6 | 1.4 | 0.087 | 103 | 106 |
| Kyrylo Fesenko | 0.437 | 8.4 | 1.8 | 9.1 | 0.2 | 0.035 | 96 | 107 |
| Raja Bell | 0.551 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 10.2 | 1.3 | 0.065 | 109 | 111 |
| Carl Landry | 0.516 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 15.5 | 1.2 | 0.067 | 105 | 111 |
| Ben Gordon | 0.557 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 15.6 | 0.9 | 0.043 | 103 | 112 |
| Chris Paul | 0.614 | 4.6 | 10.1 | 17.2 | 7.6 | 0.289 | 125 | 98 |
| LeBron James | 0.582 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 23.9 | 6.9 | 0.239 | 114 | 100 |
| Deron Williams | 0.600 | 3.6 | 8.8 | 21.1 | 5.7 | 0.200 | 118 | 110 |
| Paul Millsap | 0.594 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 18.2 | 4.9 | 0.192 | 119 | 104 |
| Al Jefferson | 0.512 | 8.8 | 1.7 | 16.6 | 2.9 | 0.109 | 106 | 105 |
| Jeremy Evans | 0.700 | 8.3 | 2.2 | 15.9 | 0.5 | 0.228 | 133 | 104 |
| Ronnie Price | 0.464 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 10.9 | -0.1 | -0.017 | 86 | 107 |
| Earl Watson | 0.466 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 0.6 | 0.064 | 103 | 107 |
| Gordon Hayward | 0.533 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 10.2 | 0.3 | 0.038 | 102 | 111 |
| Francisco Elson | 0.578 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 8.1 | 0.6 | 0.076 | 105 | 106 |
| Mehmet Okur | 0.441 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 15.2 | -0.1 | -0.085 | 83 | 111 |
| Sundiata Gaines 09-10 | 0.518 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 17.6 | 0.5 | 0.121 | 107 | 105 |
Let’s take a look at some of the trades people are suggesting we pursue:
Andrei Kirilenko for Gerald Wallace
NO. No no no a million times no. Gerald Wallace is only 17 months younger than Kirilenko anyway, and this year is strong evidence that Wallace’s game (based on athleticism) is deteriorating MUCH faster than Kirilenko’s game (based on technique and skill). Wallace is still a better on-ball defender, despite being worse defensively this year than in years past, but his shot has utterly disappeared this year and he’s lost the quick first step that made him a reasonably effective attacker in past years. His game projects to fall apart quickly and we’ll be horribly off having the last two years of his escalating contract and the player option for the 2013/2014 season. Meanwhile, Andrei is having a pretty good year, he’s shooting and generating offense MUCH better than Wallace, and he’s almost as good on defense as Wallace’s downturn has closed the gap between them. This trade would significantly harm the Jazz both this year and in the future.
Andrei Kirilenko for Tayshaun Prince
HUGE NO. Why would we want to trade for a player who is significantly worse than AK, older, and falling apart faster? This one makes absolutely no sense. Kirilenko has been more valuable than Prince for essentially their entire careers. Yes, Tayshaun was on a championship-winning team. This doesn’t somehow mean he’s some great or “clutch” player. At this point in his career he’s an incredibly poor defender, as his defensive game was predicated on the exceptional rise he possessed as a younger player. As he’s lost that in the past few years, he’s gotten progressively worse on defense; he’ll only get even worse than he is now. He’s worse on both sides of the ball than Kirilenko this year and that gap will continue to widen.
Any trade where the Jazz get Rip Hamilton
RIP HAMILTON IS DONE. Please stop trying to suggest that we add this guy to our team. There are a number of good reasons that no one in the league has been willing to trade for Hamilton despite the Pistons dangling him out there all of the last two years. HE SUCKS. He’s a sieve for the ball who eats up usage, can’t defend, shoots erratically and has utterly no offensive moves left. He’s worked on his catch and shoot game and is hitting more threes this year than last year, but his 3P% has been on the downswing for years so that’s likely a bit of a fluke, and he’s making up for hitting 40% of his threes by having one of the worst FG%s in the NBA on his twos. Hamilton has declined to the point where he’s no longer an NBA-level player.
Ben Gordon, Carl Landry
I’ve seen these guys as suggested throw-ins on some trades. They would actively harm our team. People need to get over Ben Gordon; he had one good year in Chicago, Dumars significantly overpaid him to come to Detroit, and they’ve been eating the ill effects of that since. Why would we want him on the Jazz? Carl Landry is an okay player, but no part of his game is particularly special. He wouldn’t meet any of our needs.
Andrei Kirilenko for Andre Iguodala
Finally, this is one I can absolutely get behind. Iguodala has a higher overall value than Kirilenko, and also meets our needs better. Paul Millsap absolutely has shown the shooting skill to spread the floor offensively, and the Kirilenko for Iguodala trade gives us a way to take advantage of Millsap’s full skillset on a consistent basis. Iguodala is in his prime and will continue to be an effective player for a few years down the line, and he’s the only guy any UJ360 posters are considering who’s actually more valuable than Kirilenko this year. His defense at the 2 is among the best in the entire league, and he fits a need in what’s currently by far our weakest position. Throw the whole 1-2-3-4-5 hierarchy out of the window for a minute, and consider a starting line-up of Deron Williams, Andre Iguodala, Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson, Mehmet Okur. It doesn’t have to be Okur at center, but he’d probably get the nod initially, with a bit of Center-by-committee action. We also have the option of Deron, Millsap, Jefferson at their traditional 1-4-5 slots, with Raja(or CJ) and AI manning the wing. Iguodala absolutely has the skill to shut down most 3s in the league the way he does 2s, so this could be our line-up against teams without a huge amount of length at the 3. “BUT WAIT?!?! I THOUGHT YOU SAID WE’RE JUST GOING TO BE MOVING FORWARD WITH THE TEAM WE CURRENTLY POSSESS, STUPID CHRIS!” Well, yes. As awesome as this trade would be for us, why would the 76ers do it? The talks of Iggy’s unhappiness in that organization are mostly gone, and they’re competing for the playoffs in the East. Unless Philly thinks they’re the frontrunner in the upcoming Carmelo Anthony sweepstakes, they don’t particularly need to clear salary for the next 3 seasons. And KOC is generally the type to stand pat whenever possible; it’s not like AI is a huge upgrade over Kirilenko (though he definitely will be a huge upgrade in 3 years, when AI is 30 and in a contract year and Andrei is 33). So, sure, this trade would be one I’d get behind, but the facts are it’s just really unlikely to happen.
Pretty much, the Jazz you see before you now are the Jazz we’ll have at season’s end, unless KOC inexplicably decides to make the team worse. So, what can we do to be a championship team rather than an enduring another early playoff exit? Let’s take a look at some of our players, and some thoughts on what can be done in general.
Jeremy Evans – WOW, what a talent. The numbers back up the incredible things we’ve seen him do on the floor, but with a sample size of only 113 minutes it’s really hard to gauge his overall level of impact and overall NBA ability. Those minutes have been effective enough that I’d like to see what he can do given a bit more of an opportunity to shine.
Memo – Well, it’s been rocky so far. A long time off the court has left his shot a bit rusty, but he’s definitely improving game-to-game. He was pretty terrible against the Hornets and Bucks, reasonable against the Blazers and pretty good in LA against the Clippers. We’ll need a bigger sample size to see where he is at this point.
Hayward – Incredibly, even though his stats are among the worst on the team, this is actually encouraging. Earlier in the year, they were much worse. He’s a work in progress, but at least he’s progressing.
Ronnie Price – Can we finally stop using this guy? He’s actively hurting the team, more so than ever before. His shot is just incredibly ugly, and it shows up in the numbers with him being 38 for 85 on twos and 11 for 40 on threes this year. Price has only had one acceptable year as an NBA player (07-08, his first with the Jazz) and he’s been a waste of a roster spot since.
Earl Watson – So here’s another guy with an extremely ugly shot; fortunately he’s finally figured that out and has completely backed off of the shooting this year, with his usage rate being the lowest of his career by far. He’s done a pretty nice job leading the second unit and the Deron/Watson line-ups have been among our best in +/- this year. Watson’s value on the floor shows up more in +/- than it does in Win Shares, since his counting stats underrate his ability to start plays and make his teammates better. I’m happy to say I was wrong about Watson, as I thought he’d be terrible on the Jazz. That said, neither of our backup smalls this year have been as effective as:
Sundiata Gaines was in 2009-2010. Yata has looked utterly lost this year in very sparse minutes with Minnesota, but he was nice for us last year when he did play. He ended up a casualty of the guaranteed contract foolishly given to Price. The fact of the matter remains that it’s time to cut our losses. Ronnie Price should not see a single minute of in-game action for the remainder of the season. We’re stuck with Price eating up a roster spot, but it’s time for that payaso to ride the pine.
Francisco Elson – This guy has been better than advertised, especially on the defensive end. He fouls a bit too often, but that’s not such a crime when you’re guarding a bunch of bigs and not expected to play a lot of minutes. That said, the 11 minutes per game he plays just aren’t compulsory to the benefit brought to the team when he’s on the floor. We’d be a better team finding about 20 a night for Elson. Our best line-up by adjusted +/- is the Elson/Jefferson line-up, so using that more would be one way to find those minutes.
Deron Williams – What can you say about Deron? He’s having his best year yet, and I’d put him in the top 3 for MVP. I may just be looking through some rose-colored glasses, but defensive metrics are pretty wonky and he’s seemed a lot better than a below-average defender. Then again, Yankee fans have been watching below-average defender Derek Jeter get Gold Glove after Gold Glove from MLB. Sometimes the illusion just is accepted as reality. Even if I am just fooling myself about the defense, Deron has been the 2nd-best offensive player in the entire league this year. I love having Deron on the Jazz, and even with Chris Paul out there in the stratosphere this particular year (46% of his threes? .614 TS% as a guard surrounded by almost no offensive threat teammates? just unreal) I still think Deron is the greatest PG in the game. He just has such an incredibly high level of impact. Deron is the driving force on this team, no doubt.
Paul Millsap – The shooting from PM24 this year is just unreal. His touch has been so smooth and I’ve loved the development there. I wish we could try some four-big lineups at some point! Deron, Kirilenko(or Hayward), Millsap, Jefferson, Elson? That would be a show to watch. We could do goofy things like have Kirilenko play the 2 on offense and guard the 4 on defense to take advantage of his help D, while Elson’s on the opposing 3 and Jefferson is in the middle, Millsap guarding the 2 because he’s actually got the quickness and athleticism to do it. It would be like: Offense: 1Deron 2Andrei 3Paul 4BigAl 5Cisco, Defense: 1Deron 2Paul 3Cisco 4Andrei 5Big Al. Sick. That would be fun to watch, and highly effective.
Big Al – You know, he may not be super effective, but he definitely churns up some time out there. He should have more faith in his up and under move. He’s exceptional at that, and most people covering him still have not adjusted. If he could develop even a little bit of a spin move to his left as a switch-up to that, he’d be unguardable. I wouldn’t be surprised if that shows up within the next year or two.
Al, Paul and Deron are the future of this team, and the future is damn bright. If we could add Andre Iguodala, that would be an absolute coup, but we’re pretty well off without him. Just some tweaks to the execution with the current roster might still take us to the promised land. We have the stars and the supporting cast to make it happen now. So don’t panic, fellow Jazzies! We still can win it THIS YEAR with THIS SQUAD.
Go Jazz!!!
Replies: 15
Views: 4401
15 Responses
Every year there’s always a ton of trade talk, especially as the trade deadline is coming up, and every year there is significantly less amount of trades than people expected. Yet people still always seem to think that everyone and their dog is going to make 3 or 4 trades at the deadline. Interesting to talk about, though.
Amen
Fesenko cannot be traded. Somethin to do with his contract.
Agreed – AJ, Milsap, and Deron are locks. I think we should do something, but not necessarily anything too crazy. That said, it all depends on the opportunities out there. I know there are some teams that are really trying to make trades (Denver/Melo and Nets/NY/Melo). We were initially in those talks at the beginning of the season, and AK was on the table. I wish Bell would be more consistent.
By the way, great post/analysis.
A few years ago when we picked up Kyle k. there was talk about KOC ties to the 76ers, and how he had leveraged them in the past. Wouldn’t it be great if we could pull the Iggy trade off for that?
To your point, it would be great to see Andre Ig. in our starting lineup. Wow.. what a lineup that would be. Iggy would be huge energy too, something sorely lacking with that squad.
The real problem with the trades (aside from the wildly unrealistic nature of most of them) is almost all of them involve AK no longer being on the team. This would be a bad thing.
AK is not a centerpeice, a closer, who takes over a game. It’s not what he does. But he does do everything else.
AK is the 4th scoring option in Utah’s offense with the starters in, keeping that perspective is important when you look at his ppg. He would easily have 15+ if the team ran plays to him. Andrei has excellent and quick hands around the basket, long arms and is a very good FT shooter. He makes good decisions with the ball, and is comfortable in a complicated offense on a team with 3 new starters. His assist to turnover ratio is better than anyone on the team that isn’t a point guard.
AK is a really good offensive player but doesn’t get a lot of credit for it because he isn’t flashy and doesn’t take over games. Combining that with the huge contributions he makes on the other end of the floor and you have a critical core component of the Utah Jazz this season.
Believe it or not he is that important. This guy isn’t getting traded.
Dunno Shockwave. KOC is not happy with AK. But 1 year 17 million dollar contract its hard to predict.
AK is a one of a kind. Block. Can shoot if he’s on track. Defence. Rebound. Pass… ball handle even. He’s all around. This is a tough one. I couldnt tell ya.
It’s easy to be frustrated with the concept of AK. His contract was a total disaster, and probably completely unnecessary. Cap wise he has been an anchor dragging the ship down for several years. Last year was really bad, and to boot he was hurt at just the worst possible time, along with Memo.
But that’s over, he’s paid. That contract is not a liability anymore. His back injury only kept him out 2 games this time, he’s looking healthy and diving for loose balls like he used to. Also there is finally another player on the team who blocks shots and is defending the paint. AK fits this roster better than any he’s been in because of that.
I get it that his contract sucked and he hasn’t been Kevin Durant. But he and his expiring money are worth more to Utah than anything I can realistically imagine another team offering for him. Again, I’d be very surprised to say the least if he is traded.
I really think people are just expecting WAY too much out of this team this year. They added 5 new players (nearly half the team) to a very complicated system. We got wins quicker than expected so everyone started thinking the players were all on the same page. However, the last couple weeks have shown that this is not the case. We’ve seen glimpses of greatness and we all know they play better as games progress (i.e. 4th quarter dominance), but this team still isn’t a cohesive unit. I, myself, have seen trends developing that make me a little nervous (rebounding, perimeter defense, lack of team work) but I believe this team, 38 games into the season, is still trying to find its identity. They’ve got all the talent to be one of the best teams in the league and truly compete for a championship, they’ve just got to learn how to play together first. As a society we have this “results now” mentality that sometimes just isn’t justified. It took the Deron, Boozer, Okur core of players a few years to really jell and become competitive and the current team is in a very similar boat. Adding a new piece to an already complex puzzle won’t solve any problems it will only exacerbate them.
There is no reason to push the panic button on this season yet. The Jazz have hit a rough patch (like EVERY team does in EVERY season) and yet they’re still tied for 4th in the VERY competitive West and are only 2 games out of second. Be patient with this team and see where we’re at in 2 or 3 years. Expecting a revamped team to win a championship their first year together is a little over zealous (unless, of course, you’re the Miami Heat).
No offense intended to you AG, I agree with some of what you are saying, and I am the last person that is gonna panic now. But…
I expect a lot from this team and feel like I should. They have 82 games to figure out what works and what doesn’t, and so far with them not knowing they are on pace for @ 55 wins and have been stumbling along around #4 in a very competitive West. That’s pretty good for a bunch of goofballs that don’t know how to play together, and whose effort disappears for games at a stretch.
I feel like I can reasonably speculate that when the players are comfortable with the system and trust each other, which they ought to by the time it really matters, this team should be feared.
We have the best coaches, the best point guard, great versatility and variety of skillsets, a good mix of youth to vets, and what appears to be an honest rapport in the locker room. Utah has the luxury of carrying 4 guys that can play center, two that can play the 1 without turning the ball over all the time, and 3 excellent perimiter defenders. If this team plays to its potential the sky’s the limit.
This team is built to compete for a title, not just to develop. I don’t hear any other playoff teams making excuses for losses that haven’t occurred yet. Next year is never guaranteed in any event.
Go Jazz!
As fans, what are we really doing if we aren’t rooting for a championship? I think we have to believe in what our team has presented for us. Our Jazz have the talent to get there, especially in a pretty porous West. It’s just a matter of having the confluence of events needed to succeed in the NBA post-season; even in a seven game series some luck (and some officiating issues) can make a huge difference. From what I’ve seen this season, our Jazz have just as much of a shot to overcome that as anyone. I’m with Shockwave on this one. I’m in agreement too that trading AK is a really tough call. His multifaceted skill set is extremely valuable. It’s not max-contract valuable, but it’s really not that far off. That’s also why I’m 100% against any trade where we lose AK that doesn’t involve us getting either Andre Iguodala or one of the top stars in the league, those mythical “unobtainables”. I only disagree about one thing; I don’t see two point guards on our team who don’t turn the ball over all the time. Earl Watson was among the league leaders the last 3 seasons in turnover percentage, and Deron is always just a bit above league average because of how many insane precision passes he’s required to make in this offense as well as the many he tries to thread inside through tons of defenders. They work a lot more often than not, and they’re spectacular when they do. But 20% of the time those passes are turnovers, and the majority of the league’s point guards turn the ball over less than that because they don’t even attempt them. Note this doesn’t mean I want Deron to stop; if you can get a 90% shot 80% of the time, that’s 1.44 points per possession, an excellent mark. Mainly I’m just trying to make the point that avoiding turnovers can sometimes be rather overrated.
My point wasn’t that this team CAN’T compete for a championship this year, because I honestly believe they can. I was merely trying to say that expecting this team to go an entire season without hitting a couple rough patches here and there is a little ridiculous. Calling for a trade less than half way into the season because this team lost a few games in December, in my opinion, is jumping the gun a little bit. Like Shockwave said, this team HAS the talent in place to compete NOW; they just haven’t learned how to use it to their fullest potential yet. I’m just saying give it some more time. I think they’ll figure it out sooner than later. A trade isn’t necessarily the best and only solution to every problem this team has.
({sic} on the space in overzealous)
“Expecting a revamped team to win a championship their first year together is a little over zealous”
Your words. Just sayin.
Getting around to the other comments:
@Kelton he couldn’t be traded until almost the end of December because his signing date was so late. He’s eligible now for trade.
@Justin thanks for the kind words. I agree that Iguodala would make this team more exciting as well as better. Kirilenko does a lot of great things for us. However, in addition to not quite being as valuable as the other Andre, he also lacks that “star factor” intangible that Iguodala and DWill have (and that Paul Millsap is really starting to show also). There are two ways that could energize the starting line-up as you mentioned. First, Millsap + Jefferson playing the 3-4 instead of the 4-5 means they’ll be at more natural defensive positions, and hopefully would not need to expend as much effort on defense, leaving more energy for our half of the court. Second, just the change in the line-up could infuse a spark into our group. Iguodala has cred as a fiery competitor and 100% effort guy.
@Shockwave I agree entirely that AK has a ton of value to the team, even if it’s hard to always notice it because he has such a broad skill-set without seeming to do anything particularly special. If the Jazz trade him, we do need to get a star-level replacement to avoid becoming a worse squad. Iguodala is the option which comes closest to being realistic, but I’m in agreement with you that a) we’re moving forward with AK and b) that isn’t a bad thing at all since he’s a very valuable piece of our roster.
Those are my words, I don’t deny them and I stand by them. I still think they can compete with the best teams in the league this year, but a lot of things have to break their way to even make it to the conference finals. I think their best chance to win a championship, barring any major injuries; will be in the next 2-3 years. CAN they compete for one this year? Absolutely, but they’ve still got a lot of work to do to get there and I’m not sure one season is long enough for that to be done. I root for them to get it done every season, but I’m also realistic and know that I shouldn’t get my hopes too high when they’ve had so much turn over this past off season. I also don’t think creating more turn over through a trade is a good idea right now. We haven’t even seen this team play with everyone 100% healthy yet.
By the way, am I the only one who would just love to see Jerry surprise everyone even with our current roster? I think it would be just riotous if he tried starting Millsap at the 2. It’s pretty unconventional, but Paul is one of the few guys on the team with the size, quickness and strength to handle on-ball defense of an opposing SG threat. So it would be Williams, Millsap, Kirilenko, Jefferson, Elson. Kirilenko is a really good ball-mover at the 3 so Elson could do his typical stand at the top of the key thing while Deron can slash to the basket or Deron and Andrei can distribute the ball to scorers Millsap and Jefferson. It feels like that group would create matchup problems on both ends of the floor, especially with teams not really having someone for their 2 to guard (Millsap can post up any smaller player; Andrei can cut to the lane and receive passes over the top).