Posted by: Someguy on April 27th, 2012
I can never get this site to post things properly for me. Anyways here’s my post.
As news broke I was disappointed but not completely surprised that Golden State won their flip. The Jazz have never had good luck with flips (they lost two today – Golden State’s and our own), but recently we’ve had good luck with the lottery, so I wanted to figure out what are the odds that someone 8-14 would win a lottery spot and bump Golden State to #8 so we get the pick. Here’s the breakout of chances out of 1000 that each team has in the lottery.
1 CHA 250
2 WAS 199
3 CLE 138
4 NOH 137
5 SAC 76
6 NJ 75 POR gets this pick unless NJ wins the lottery
7 GS 36
8 TOR 35
9 DET 17
10 MIN 11 NOH gets this pick
11 POR 8
12 MIL 7
13 PHX 6
14 HOU 5
So adding 8-14 there are 89 chances (ping pong balls if you will) that somene will leap frog Golden State for the first pick out of 1000 or………………. 8.9%
If they don’t get leapfroged on the first pick lets assume that CHA with the most chances gets the first pick. Then on the second there would still be 89 chances out of 750 this time or………………………… 11.9%
Again assuming they don’t get leapfroged on the second lets assume that WAS with the next most chances gets it. On the third and final there would be 89 chances out of 551 or……………………………. 16.2%
They are not the greatest odds in the world, but we’ll all still be crossing our fingers on lottery day that Karma comes back to bite the Golden State Tankers in the butt.
The overall percentage of the above scenario is 267 chances out of 2301 or 11.6% and is best case scenario.
In a worst case scenario (NJ and SAC taking picks 1 and 2) the percentages would be as follows 1st pick 8.9% 2nd pick 9.6% and 3rd 10.5% – overall percentage for this worst case scenario is 267 chances out of 2774 or 9.6%
We’re not getting this pick. Best to just forget about it now. A lineup with Curry, Bogut, Lee, and Thompson sounds like a playoff team, so it looks like the pick is worthless from here on out. I wish the Warriors the worst of luck…
i hope this just gets GSW amped up for a despair when jazz take the pick during ball drop time. FU Golden State.
I was off by 10% sorry — 27.5% chance overall before any lottery balls are picked. Then, like Someguy goes through, the % chance changes after each ball is chosen depending on which team won, etc.
That Hornets game Golden State threw was pathetic. Bill Simmons mentioned in his tanking article something about them shutting down David Lee to some bogus injury soon – the *next day* it happened. I’m so happy we don’t cheer for an organization that somehow believes perpetuating a losing culture will in any way help your team.
By the way…congrats Gordon on #8!
Go Jazz. Prove Shaq wrong.
Oh, and GS won’t make the playoffs next year, karma dictates Bogut will sustain another season-ending injury, Curry’s ankle will finally just break off, and Lee will say screw this and retire.
I’ve been playing espn’s lotto 50 times. The Jazz took GS’s pick 11 times (so I was unfortunate with my 22%) and selected Kendall Marshall.
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