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Time To Rebuild
Posted by: Brian McCann on March 23rd, 2011
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.As a Jazz fan for over twenty years, I have learned to be realistic in both good and bad times. Three years ago, when the Jazz were in the midst of one of the greatest runs in franchise history (right after the Kyle Korver trade; running from January through mid-may), I was overly bullish on them. The team was young, deep, and talented. Their defense was a bit suspect, but their offense was far and away the best in the NBA, leading John Hollinger to proclaim that had the Jazz started the season at that pace in November and December, they would have statistically been the best offensive team of all-time. The realist in me rationalized that most teams don’t win championships until their core is in their late twenties/early thirties. At that time I couldn’t imagine the Jazz ever making changes that would not keep the team together through that phase of their careers. But they did. And here we are.
Utah as currently constituted will get better. They could even make the playoffs next year, and probably will. The question I have is what is their ceiling? Are they a perpetual 7th or 8th seed, or could they REALISTICALLY get over the top and win a title? I have thought about this question quite a bit, and my gut feeling is that this team will win enough going forward to put fans in the seats at ESA, but not enough to make much noise in the Western Conference. Sure, being good is an important factor for a small market franchise. The most important issue at hand is staying financially viable. But in our case it seems to definitely come at the expense of being great, and it is for that reason that I strongly feel it is time for Greg and Kevin to go into full-on rebuilding mode.
Management has been reluctant to say it, and for good reason. We had been told that we were building a contender around a young core group of really good players for the last six years. However, too many of those core players were allowed to walk away, and the erosion and frustration finally pushed our all-world point guard out the door. The decision to trade Deron Williams might have been necessary, but we shouldn’t fool ourselves into thinking it was an isolated event. Every action has a reaction, and the actions of Jazz management over the preceding year finally led to them feeling they had no other choice than to let Deron go. Unfortunately, most of our once promising core players will now hit their primes in another team’s uniform.
You can’t say conclusively what it takes to win an NBA title, but we can look at history and come up with a pretty good idea. Most of the time, title contending teams have at least two all-stars, preferably three. They also typically have a core that is in their late twenties to early thirties and in the prime of their careers. Very rarely do young teams make any real noise in the NBA playoffs. Sure, you have the occasional team of young guys that might make it to the conference finals (like the Jazz did in ’07), but it is rare. Or you might have a young superstar like Kobe Bryant that compliments a star in his prime like Shaq, but the core is generally experienced with knowledge of how to win in the playoffs.
What worries me about the Jazz, is that they have now given up most of the youth they developed, and will probably have to start back at square one with young draft picks. Personally, I think this is the best course of action all things considered, but it doesn’t bode well for the team being able to compete seriously for a championship any time in the next five to six years, maybe longer. Youth can win you games in the regular season, but the payoffs are something different, where tribal knowledge and defensive grit are key. And then you have the “Superstar Issue” that this team most definitely will be confronted with again. The Jazz didn’t want Deron Williams to hold them hostage, but that is what superstars do. Michael Jordan gave Jerry Krause and Jerry Reinsdorf hell every summer. He threatened to leave, got his feelings hurt, and then eventually resigned to minimum-length contracts, all so they could go through the same thing again the next summer. Kobe Bryant did the same thing to the Lakers, ranting in a home video about how he was going to demand a trade. Karl Malone did it to Larry Miller on various occasions, and Dwight Howard has put the Magic on notice now. What do all of these players have in common? They win. Deron Williams is the same way, and while we will probably never know what actually pushed Greg and Kevin to move him, if the answer truly has to do with what they are telling us, that they were afraid that they might not resign him, THAT makes me afraid for this franchise, because it will surely happen again. Are we doomed to develop Derrick Favors, Harrison Barnes, or another future draft pick, only to have them reach “superstar status” and demand that the organization put players around them that will help them to win? Every team that is worth its weight in gold has that issue, and if the Jazz ever want to reach the precipice of the NBA elite, they will need to learn to deal with it to.
As is, it is time to rebuild. Keep your reasonable contracts (Millsap, Miles), dump your expensive, long-term deals (Jefferson, Memo) for future draft picks, and move on. Start over. Some of you might consider this throwing in the towel. Some of you aren’t ready to give up. But some of us are sick of being mediocre. Some of us are sick of the fifth seed in the playoffs, and this team as presently constituted will be lucky to ever pin down a fifth seed.
The Jazz will have to deal with developing and KEEPING young talent. They will have to deal with egos and hurt feelings. They will have to deal with young kids in their twenties that want to win so bad they sometimes say stupid things. The challenge going forward for this team will be learning to have an iron gut-like Larry Miller did. Karl Malone use to put his foot in his mouth more often than not, and threatened to leave the team on more than one occasion. Larry could have traded him. He could have said “well, I was just worried he would leave”. He obviously didn’t, and Karl now has a statue in the plaza of Energy Solutions Arena.
Yes, there are some pretty steep challenges ahead for this team if a championship really is the ultimate goal. But at this point, the Jazz would be better to go for broke, play for the future, and completely rebuild. Otherwise, I am afraid mediocrity is our best case scenario for the next few years.
Neither option really makes me happy, but if I am looking at this team from 10,000 feet up, there is only one clear option. We might not win many games over the next few seasons, but its time to rebuild from the ground up.
Replies: 19
Views: 1026
19 Responses
One thing to consider, is that the top three teams in the western conference (Los Angeles, Dallas, and San Antonio)are showing definite signs of advancing age. They are going to begin to lose key players over the next three years to retirement. Kobe Bryant, while still great, is nowhere near the player he was even two years ago. San Antonio and Dallas are in the same boat with some of their players. They know the window of opportunity to win more championships is closing quickly. Boston is in a similar situation in the eastern conference. A bunch of Hall of Fame caliber players are all going to be retiring around the same time.
That being said, I think the Jazz have a nice roster moving forward, both with the players we already have on hand, and the draft picks that will be piling up over the next two seasons. Jefferson, Millsap, Favors, Hayward, Harris, Miles, and Evans are a good young core. You add two or three more lottery picks, bring over Tomic, and by 2014 the Jazz may have one of the strongest teams in the conference (along with Oklahoma City, and possibly the Clippers if they can build around Blake Griffin…though being the Clippers, I’m sure they will find some way to mess it all up). So many stars are heading down the final stretch (Bryant, Kidd, Nash, Duncan, Nowitzki), while others like Roy, Oden, Bynum, and Yao Ming seem to injury prone to reach their full potential. I really think in two years, the western conference will be as wide open as it has been in quite awhile. Many will be looking to rebuild. I think the Jazz, because of the moves that have been made this season, have a nice head start on most of them.
Hi Brian!!
Assuming we re-sign AK an Miles, and will be difficult to trade Memo.
The roster 2011/2012 should be something like:
PG- Harris / xxx
SG – xxx / Miles
SF- xxx / AK / Hayward
PF- Millsap / Favors / Evans
C- Big AL / Memo / xxx
On market : Bell
FA: Price / Watson / Fes / Elson
We need a STARTER SG and SF.
Want do you think about this roster,and which are the players that replace the xxx.
goodbye
I don’t agree with dumping Big Al. He is a good player, played the best center this team has seen in years. I think it time to dump Millsap, because teams have been after him for a long time and he clearly is undersized as a power forward. Trade him for a draft pick, sign DeAndre Jordan and move Big Al to power forward, where he is more then enough of a matchup for most. Draft a small forward this year because this draft has a ton of them and trade one of the picks to get another player. The Jazz have pieces, good pieces, and this team can get back to playoffs in shorter time then most think.
I wouldn’t mind seeing the Jazz trying to pursue that Bell for Flynn trade that Minnesota wanted so you can let Watson go and rid themselves of Bell’s contract. I think Jimmer would be a good back up PG if they can snag him with our pick and possibly get Derrick Williams with NJ pick.
If you can pick up a solid SG via free agency like Shawne Williams or Crawford then let CJ go. Also, try to dump Okur’s contract if you can but it’s doubtful.
Rebuilding from scratch would be a mistake, as a European who has only been in Utah for little over 2 years I would say one of the reasons that Jazz has been successful as a franchise is because the team has had an element of stability over the years whereas other teams with similar sized franchises have been rebuilding at will over the same period.
Unfortunately for the Jazz, Utah is never going to be appealing to ready made All Stars if they have more exciting cities that they can move to like New York, Boston, Chicago, Miami or Los Angeles as an option.
Also finances will be an issue. I can see the Jazz trading for one ready made All Star to build a team around but with the luxury tax rules if they want more than one all star in the team they will have to a certain extent make their own, either by getting lucky in the draft as they did with DWill or molding a player that they get through a trade.
Then the trick will be to keep them. The difference with Kobe and Jordan vs the DWill situation is they were at franchises where they could expect to compete for winning trophies not just getting to the playoffs. DWill was getting more frustrated at the lack of progress and seeming lack of ambition in keeping players, the other two just wanted more money. I’m not convinced that DWill wouldn’t have signed another contract. By the time his current contract was up he would probably been at the Jazz for 7 – 8 seasons which might have been enough to make him decide to stay and try and be a legend but it was certainly a possibility he could leave if a team went after his services like they went after Carmelo’s, and if he stopped his petulance and concentrated on being the 2nd best PG in the league he would have had his suitors for sure.
I worry less about this situation happening again with other star players in future as yes it had something to do with his contract, but also I think it might have something to do with saving DWill from some of the flak that he was getting for Sloan resigning which to me affected his play more than his wrist. Also I think the team at the top figured they were going to have to rebuild without Sloan at the helm anyway so they may as well start over, to an extent, all at once. With the agreement to come between franchise owners and players in the summer I see players having a little less power in future. That said I do worry that they are times when the Jazz are not willing to match the contract offers for their players. It seems to me the AK contract stung them so badly that they don’t want to get caught in that situation again so when a team comes calling for a Matthews type player who fights hard to find a role in the team they let them disappear off into the distance without putting up a fight. If that continues into the future that is where I see real problems for the Jazz building a team for anything other than getting a playoff finish.
If the Jazz are to successfully rebuild they have to decide on their core strength now, and find or build the pieces that can complement that element so that the team has more balance. Building over completely will just make the job too long and difficult. If they continue to let first team players go they will struggle for any sort of momentum.
I’m yet to be convinced that Ty is the man for the job, thats no slight on him, rather building a new team is a big ask for a rookie boss, but whoever they decide to give the job to they better decide quickly and support him for as long as it takes to get those pieces together. Otherwise the Jazz risk losing the stability that has made them fight above their weight as a franchise all these years.
Oh my. Glad you guys are not in charge. I would have to pick another team… Sheesh. Why is it that people think to fix something they have to restart or tear it all down and start from scratch?
Lets see, I have to agree with rebuilding, but its already started.. When you build, you have to have a foundation. I think Al C, Milsap PF, and Favors PF/C can be that foundation. You wont find another player to replace Al at Center. He is the best center we have had in yrs.. So what if they are undersized, so was John Stockton.. Oh, guess he would have been thrown back too huh?
So lets see, you got your foundation. Now you build around that. Harris is a solid PG, dont care what you say. Who cares he is not Deron, one player doesnt win games. In time he will learn the players and the system and he will work for now.
Resign AK, which he is interested in, for a manageable price, around 5 to 8 Mil a season. I bet if we dont wait too long he will take it.
CJ starts for the time being, and Hayward backs up at SG… Well, now you have a frame. One to build on, not to live with yet.
You get a couple good kids to come in from the draft, which although not All Star Status, has talent that can help us. Maybe a Barnes, Williams and an Irving, Knight, Walker, Leonard, Hamilton. If we are lucky enough to land a good pair here we should be good.
You say 6 yrs. Try again. Dont expect any Kobe’s, but you never know. But anyone who does step in and stand out, could be ready within 3. Add that to our 26, 26, 19, 20, 24 yr olds and what do you have? The exact thing your talking about, a team of players in their mid to late 20’s.
If you say that Al continues to play like this last half of the season, he is an All Star. Favors in a couple yrs, possible All Star. Get a Williams or Barnes, then another possible All Star. Wow, there is another Key to your formula..
Possible team in two yrs?
Irving 20 or walker 21 or Knight 20/Harris 28
Hayward 22/CJ 26
Williams 20 or Barnes 20 or Jones 20/Evans 21/AK 30
Favors 21/Milsap 28
Al 28/Tomic 22
Of course there are other possibilities, but you see what I mean. Next season, playoffs and building steam from there. The ceiling can go up from there. Heck you never know, maybe we will pull out a miracle, take Irving and Williams with the first two picks and go from there.
Could you imagine Irving/Harris, Hayward/CJ, Williams/AK/Evans, Milsap/Favors, Al/Favors next season or the following season. Ok ok, dream world, but after reading some of the posts on here, I should be allowed that one..
With the exception of the Memphis game, where everyone on our team sucked lemons, Miles has been putting up terrific numbers in our starting lineup. He’s also got a decent contract. I think he’s a bargain for the price, and what he brings to the team.
Besides, Hayward needs minutes. If he’s not starting, he at least needs to be your backup two-guard. The guy is a top ten lottery pick. You might as well trade him if your not going to give him significant minutes. I agree about Flynn though. I love Earl, but were in a rebuilding mode, and Flynn would be a better fit in that regard.
The Jazz have very little money to spend in free agency, so a guy like Crawford is probably out of the question.
Flynn looked to me like he had an attitude problem, I wouldn’t want to see him here anytime soon. I had issues with Deron’s attitude this season as it was, but I could put up with it knowing that he was the star of the team and was coming from frustration from how the team were playing. Flynn though has some way to go before he can be judged alongside Deron.
As for keeping Al and trading Milsap. Milsap might be undersized for a PF but as of now he has a longer range than Al. Al is good at what he does but so is Paul which is why teams are looking at him. They both need to stay or we will be looking to have to find yet another piece in the puzzle when they are already enough to ponder. The Jazz have scorers in Al and Paul and they complement one anothers game, the problem is that the team struggles for balance elsewhere in the side
I’m with Patrick. I only brought up Flynn because he’s young and has an upside, Raja doesn’t anymore. Plus, after Bell’s comments geared towards Corbin not starting-it makes me wonder if he really is even contributing in the locker room. I think Flynn is frustrated cause he doesn’t get the PT that he probably should be getting.
Anyways, Irving isn’t going to be available when the Jazz have their NJ pick. I’d love him to-he’s a SOLID PG.
But a team with Harris, Hayward, Derrick Williams, Favors, Millsap, Jefferson, and possibly Walker or Fredette this team will be fun to watch.
I’m thinking Al and Paul would make great captains of this team.
I have to agree with Raja, I looked at him to be the old hand guiding the young team through its troubles after Sloan and Deron departed but his attitude disappointed me. His attitude and character had been keeping me on board through his injuries and inconsistent form. But now I wonder his value to the team.
But Flynn I do worry for, as I don’t see much hope for someone who struggles to get the game time he thinks he deserves at a team that is struggling at the bottom of the table. It suggests to me there is an inherent problem there that we should stay away from.
If we could land Harrison Barnes or Derrick Williams, I’d dance a jig in the street.
But if we could land Kyrie Irving, I’d dance a jig in the street in the nude.
Steve I have to agree that its balance. Its our perimeter. The one stat we are losing by this season, is 3 point percentages. At .344 percent, we are among the lowest in the league. Whats worse than that is most teams we play against (winning teams) shoot and make more 3 point shots than we attempt. Every team in the NBA seems to be able to shoot 3 pointers against us, but wide upen isnt hard is it?
Its wierd to see these stats, but we are 12th in offense, and 26th in defense, though we are in the top 10 for both blocks and steals. Can rebounds bring your defense down that much, or is it opponenets shooting percentages, that killed us?
The keys for us, is the perimeter. Once we guard the perimeter, they will miss more shots. Once we learn to shoot 3 pointers, they will have to defend the perimeter. Both the above will clear out the paint, which will increase the rebounds. Wow, that seems simple aye? We are top ten in most other things, so that should help the team out a lot. What do you think?
I’ll take Flynn (in exchange for Bell)anyway. He could have a big upside. If he’s a bad apple, we let him go. The guy was a high lottery pick. The big question: would he be permitted to wear his headband?
Patrick, balance is exactly where its gone wrong this season. You don’t get rid of the elements that are performing to a high standard on a regular basis. You keep what works and figure out solutions to the rest.
They have to address the opposing team scoring 3’s. I could live with a team that can’t shoot 3’s as long as the opposing team couldn’t shoot them either. It seems to me as the season went on more and more teams got wind of the fact that the Jazz couldn’t defend the perimeter to such an extent that even teams that would struggle with 3 shooting all season got very good at it when the Jazz were their opponents. Thats got to say something right there.
I do think on top of addressing the perimeter defense that I want to see a sea change in the attitude of the defense as a whole. I want to see such pride in the defense that they become more like a Chicago or Boston. I don’t want to watch a New York type of team that has the potential to score big but is always a few games away from losing a few on the trot because they are vulnerable on the other end.
I look at AK who frustrates me no end but when he blocks or steals he suddenly gets this energy to go attack the other end of the court. When a team can defend it just seems to make attack so much easier, not to mention there is less pressure to score. Its means that your scorers can go through a period of struggle and you can still find what it takes to win the game. But if you defend like this team does at the moment then you can be out of the game in the first quarter and never get a way back.
If the Jazz could find a couple more pieces that addresses the defense I do think the attitude of opposing teams would change giving the Jazz a chance to finsih more games off.
I liked Jack’s analysis. He basically said we need:
Starting SG
Starting SF
Backup C
Backup PG
In that order (IMO).
I totally agree. I think we have a great C/PF/PF combo with Jefferson/Millsap/Favors. Memo could be our backup C, but only if he can get 80% or more back to where he was.
Bell is our only real SG and he has proved to be a miserable disappointment. We badly need a starting SG. One who can knock down three-point shots, drive to the paint, create his own shot, hit the famous ‘curl’, and defend the opposing SG. Miles and Hayward can play it well enough as backups. Who knows, Hayward might be able to start as SG after a few years developing. But I see this as our biggest, most pressing need.
Our next biggest problem spot is SF. And I think the problem is that we have 3-4 ‘backup’ type players at this position. AK is out with back spasms and calf strains 1 of 5 games. And when he plays, he can be amazing 1 game and then disappear for two. I don’t consider that starter material. CJ is just as bad, although he isn’t plagued with back and calf injuries. He shoots 14-18 one night and then shoots 1-8 the next. I also consider him a backup. Evans (despite people thinking he is a PF), is a SF. His problem is his size and lack of outside shooting/driving. He is, however a great slasher and finisher around the rim. I consider him a backup. So…we have a glut of backup-level SFs and no one good enough that they should be starting.
If Memo can’t get healthy, then we’re using a Fes or Elson–both ‘Safety Net’ players–as a backup. Our third biggest need IMO is to get a decent backup C. Al is probably playing too many minutes because of how crappy both Fes and Elson are. I see only one of Fes/Elson being re-signed as that safety net player.
And last of all, a backup PG. This is our least pressing need, I think, becuase Watson has done a good job here. I consider Ronnie Price a safety net player, not a backup. Watson has his weaknesses (driving to the paint, then picking up his dribble with nowhere to go and his shooting), so there’s an opportunity to upgrade here too.
I think it all depends on what happens with our draft picks. Most likely we get #6 and #12-13. But if the ping pong balls drop our way, we might have a PG combo of Kyrie Irving/Devin Harris, which would be great. Then we’d most likely have a SG combo of Barnes/Bell. Anyway, we can’t address four holes with only two draft picks. But IMO, I’d like to see a good SG followed by a good SF if we get #6 & #12-13 as I think that would help us the most.
I like our shooting guard position with Miles starting, and Hayward backing him up. The only player in the draft I could see as an improvement on that tandem would be Alec Burks.
I think Memo will return to 80% and be a nice backup to Big Al next season.
I think you could get away with playing Watson and Price behind a player of Deron Williams caliber. But, Harris is a notch below Williams, and I would like to see us change things up here. I’d love to see the Jazz draft either Fredette, Knight, or Walker with that second first round pick. We need a backup point guard who is at least a THREAT to score.
If the Jazz keep Kirilenko around, and play Evans at the three spot, were pretty good at that position. However, drafting Vesely or Barnes would make AK expendable. I really want to see Evans get time on the floor. That won’t happen if he’s third on the totem pole at either forward spot.
As much as I like what CJ does for the team I only see him alternating between being a starter and number 6. He’s just too hot and cold to be a genuine starter. I like Hayward, his defense is getting better but he’s got to start trusting his shot more. He can score but there are times when he doesn’t even try to shoot.
I hope Memo returns to something like his old self, that would make the Jazz a more threatening prospect and his absence has left a huge hole in the lineup that the team hasn’t recovered from. He could be a starter or just add an extra dimension to the second unit.
What Watson brings to the second unit isn’t points through himself but he does introduce others well and he really disrupts the flow of the other team when they are on a roll. He is a clever little player with a good basketball IQ and in my book underrated because of his size and lack of scoring. If Memo comes back next year, Evans develops some muscle over the summer, and Hayward trusts his shooting I think Watson could do a good job with the second unit. After a good start to the year Miles is the only one who contributes anything of note on a regular basis for that second unit, so its probably no wonder he can blow hot or cold. I don’t blame Watson for that, I tend to think the indifferent form of the first unit and all the injuries has led to that situation.
AK is expendable on his current contract but at the same time you know what he is capable of and you know his weaknesses which you can work around, replacing him with someone with no NBA experience and not keeping him around might be a mistake.
the Jazz already are in rebuilding mode … Trading Deron Williams was the final cut, that ‘07 team is gone.
The Jazz are actually in a really good position for a quick rebuild, possibly win the NW next season. You know that the Millers and the Jazz more than any other franchise are praying for the lockout to come. Some of the other owners will cave in early, the players union will always present a united front, the usual… In the end the labor bosses will win because by not having a next season, the majority of them will keep millions. It is the laborers in this case who have everything to lose, like their millions of dollars, endorsements, fan base.
In the end the players will agree to a nearly identical version of the original offer from their employers. After that the Jazz will have just as much to spend as the Lakers, Magic, Mavericks …they dumped Williams, Kirilenko’s infamous bargain finally comes off the books, and the Jazz have a lot of young talent and draft picks and like sixteen million under the new, very low hard cap*
*with tons of loopholes
Finally someone said it, great post Brian.
Besides the youth, Hayward, Evans,& Favors there should only be one untouchable on this team, Paul Millsap.