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Thoughts From The Shop: Solving The Log Jam
Posted by: Stephen Loveless on October 19th, 2012
The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of the Utah Jazz.
We’re all familiar with shop talk. It generally includes machinery, weaponry, food, women, and sports. I get a fair dose of shop talk as I spend about half of my day in one. This particular shop is also inhabited by several other Jazz fans, one of which is rather spirited and recently shared some thoughts with me. Let me offer a small disclaimer before I continue:
The following is the opinion of one man and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the author.
As we discussed a recent game, the performance of the Utah big men came up. There will be some paraphrasing here for the sake of family-friendly journalism.
“Put Jefferson on the end of the bench and tell him to get comfortable. Unless there is foul trouble or someone goes down with an injury that’s where he stays. He’ll stay there for a year to finish out his overpriced contract and then he’s out of here. He’s a bum.”
Now I personally disagree with this comment. I believe Jefferson has immense potential. I’d love to see him in a little better shape but that’s true of any player. Defense can always be improved upon and I think we’d all like to see more consistent play out of the entire roster. Al has excellent foot work and a deadly push-shot. Is that enough to merit the $15M check? Not really, but that doesn’t mean we bench him and just eat that money. As far as his free agency is concerned, I’m not ready to make end-of-season decisions right now with Kanter and Favors on the cusp of breakout seasons.
“Give Millsap two options. He either comes off the bench as sixth man or we take the first third-round pick we get offered for him.”
I think he’s closer on this one. Don’t get me wrong. I love Millsap. Or I did before we matched the Portland offer. The drive that endeared him to fans has fizzled out. The talent is still there but he’s no longer trying to prove himself.
Trading him is one option but a late round pick is not even remotely worth it. Maybe I’ll write another post about possible options on a Millsap trade… But that’s really not my specialty. I function more on chemistry and hunches than raw statistical data.
What this really comes down to for me is the relative value of Jefferson/Kanter and Millsap/Favors. Kanter showed some serious dedication with his workouts this summer but that doesn’t mean he’ll keep it up if and when he’s offered big money. Favors is begging for more time and I think he deserves it. His athleticism makes him much more of a threat on both sides of the ball.
Personally, I’d like to see all four of these guys get good minutes this year. I’m glad it’s not my job to figure out how to make that work. Millsap and Jefferson need to step up in order to keep their spots. Favors and Kanter need to take advantage of every opportunity to take those spots away. Whatever happens, can we please leave Ostertag in retirement?
Replies: 36
Views: 1303
36 Responses
Ostertag was right about ONE thing: He CAN set a better pick than any of our big men.
I think Millsap feels he deserves to cash in on a big contract, especially after being ‘underpaid’ (he’s had a great value contract). And with Favors and Kanter to pay (eventually) and Jefferson as a possibility to re-sign after this season as well, I’m just not sure the Jazz want to shell out the money he wants (and can probably get elsewhere). Same thing might be said about Jefferson though. He’ll probably be able to get more money elsewhere in free agency than he’s really worth, especially to the Jazz who have two #3 draft pick big guys on value contracts.
So do we keep one of them still (and likely overpay for his services) or do we let both of them walk and see if we can spend that extra cap space on someone like Chris Paul, or do we make a mid-season trade to get some assets back like a first round draft pick or something?
I’m not sure what the plan should be. I wish you could know beforehand if you could pick up a superstar with your capspace or not, because that would be what would decide it for me. If not, then you trade one guy for future picks before the deadline, and overpay the other guy to stay.
So while I love Millsap
So while I love Millsap, he’s probably the best trade option at this point.
Amen. Might you have any tips on dealing with a Jefferson hater? My best friend is a passionate Jazz fan and an equally passionate Jefferson hater.
I can foresee a possible logjam problem at the 2 and 3 positions at well. Thoughts?
I like your idea of bringing in a truly great point. I loved Harris and thought he was starting to show his colors at the end of the season. I also love Mo but I’m not sure how he’ll pan out for Utah. I would love to see a great running/passing point back in Utah. Like you said, how do we know if we can make that happen…
Ben-
I think it just depends. The Jefferson hater I have is not worth arguing with. There is no point I can make that will change his mind. We have pretty much agreed to disagree at this point.
My thoughts on Jefferson is that he’s got great strengths and some glaring weaknesses. If the weaknesses get exposed and the strengths suppressed (like what happened in the Spurs playoff series), I tend to shift blame to the coach. Changing to Zone defense, playing the athletic, good P&R defender D-Fave against Tim Duncan and playing Jefferson off the bench against Spurs bench guys Splitter/Blair/Diaw to me would have been the way to maximize both Jefferson’s and D-Fave’s strengths while minimizing weaknesses.
Did anyone see NBA TV: Jazz preview?
Karl Malone is just as crazy as some of us are. He said need Jazz need to play their young players a lot, the only way they develop is by playing. Favors needs to start. And Burks is the Jazz PG of the future and would “ezcel” in that position with that responsiblity. I dont know if I agree wwith his starting line up. Hes starting line up:
Al
Favors
Millsap
Mo (SG)
Burks (PG)
I really think the Lakers have a small, small window. I read one report that Lakers are setting up to sign LBJ in 2014 and pair him with Dwight?? So I see them trying not to unload Gasol so as to avoid a huge hit in penalties. OkC has to deal with Harden issue, Duncan in last few years, Clippers have a lot of vets and CP3 in FA year. I really think Jazz need to accelerate development of young players and strike while all these teams are getting old, trading players to avoid penalties.
Jazz could make a huge jump by next year. But not by playing and paying Al and Millsap a ton of money. They both cannot be resign, and the one remain cant get paid more than 8-9M a year.
I really hate mid-season blow up trades, but I think I prefer picks over cap space, simply cuz I dont know how many players, superstars, would WANT to sign with Utah. With picks we can strike gold or at least package for key players.
*”excel”
If a trade is made I would prefer to make it a big one. We need to get rid of 3-4 people for 1-2 people back.
I think anyone that give Millsap more then 8-9 mil will end up regretting it. I think the same thing about Al. I really at this point would rather have Al then Paul. That phrase is going to shock multiple people on this site, I just think Paul does not really want to be here in a log jam in a contract year not getting his touches. So if he is going to have a bad attitude which is think is inevitable then he needs to go. Locke talked about how he gets upset with out his touches and plays called for him. So what is going to happen when he does not get his touches all year?
I think it makes sense to trade Millsap.
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=8mllkpx
Or do this. Add in the Detroit 1st round pick they got in a trade and it works out great!
hahaha, @Dallan.
Im thinking Millsap is looking at the very least for 10M since he rejected the last offer. It sounds like the Jazz are super happy with Al being that he is a great teammate. So I really doubt Al will be traded this year. Its looking more and more like Millsap is the odd man out. A trade is coming cuz there has been no movement on the Raja buyout, so it seems to me he is getting dealt as part of a package. I just hope they do it soon so those new players can get acclimated before the season starts. And I would like an unprotected 1st somewhere in there.
You for sure get a 1st round pick in my deal!
I don’t know, Big Al gets fatter every year. I still prefer having Favors start at 5 and Millsap at 4. Have Kanter backup Favors and have Darnell Jackson (defense) and Jeremy Evans(offense)back up Millsap for the time being.
You’re going to get more trade value for Al than Millsap.
If we play the coaching staff wants us to and actually implement the new pass-first, up-tempo offense, there is little to no room for isolation scoring. Only in the last 5 seconds of the shot clock.
This means not as many plays being run for Al and a lot less touches. I think we’ll be lucky to get 15 points and 5 rebounds from Jefferson IF we implement this system.
And you shouldn’t–and don’t need to–pay $15 Million for that kind of production.
If we DON’T implement the new system, Al becomes a post-iso black hole once again, and he’l get 18 points and 7 rebounds. He’s more out of shape this year than he was last year (seriously, compare last year’s pre-season to this one).
Actually, upon rewatching some vids it looks like Al hasn’t really gained or lost any weight, looks pretty much the same as during the Spurs series. But he’s always been on the husky side. I still see him struggling in an up-tempo offense.
But, Al’s defense HAS improved, and he is proving to be a better team player, and a more willing passer. I’m not one to say an old dog can’t learn new tricks, but I also don’t think it’s smart to think he’ll have the same offensive production if he’s making more of an effort on defense. And there is the fact that Al is very clutch. He can score on anybody when he’s on the left block.
To be honest though, both of them have been a bit underwhelming up to this point. Hopefully it’s just a conditioning/beginning of the season thing, and they both pick it up.
Let’s show the Clippers why they should fear playiong at the ESA! I want to see Favors shut down Griffin.
Stephen, i dont know what the reasons that your friend gives about Big Al bein a bum, but let me give you my analysis on him. I have the NBA League Pass and ive watched every Jazz game the last 2 years. Offensively he,s polished with his low post moves and suprisingly quick with his footwork,and his one hand push shot is unique and pretty much money. But he has to be isolated, preferably on the left low block, and he’s so slow and deliberate with it that he stops up the flow of the offense often times. He also avoids contact on his post moves and RARELY gets fouled when he shoots unfortunately because he made almost 80% from the foul line last year. He also has no left hand at all when he shoots making him easier to defend. He’s pretty much an established 20pt 10 rebound guy so theres no chance that he wont command at least 15 mil a year going forward. Its on the DEFENSIVE end where the serious problem is with him. Even tho Al avgs about 1.5 blocks a game or so, hes NOT a defensive anchor in the paint becuzz he has TERRIBLE defensive awareness when defending his man and he CANT keep one eye on his man AND the ballhandler at the same time. Therefore he rarely even sees when a ballhandler beats his teammate off the dribble when hes on his man in the post, and cant slide over to proect the basket because of it. On top of that he is an extremely below the rim player and cannot slide over off his man and get up quick enuff or high enuff to contest a shot at the rim even if he does see a ballhandler attacking the rim. K.C Jones, its not coach Corbins fault that Al got exposed against the Spurs in the playoffs. In the postseason you cant hide glaring weaknesses and the Spurs are so good with Tony Parker on the pick and rolls and Al is so TERRIBLE hedging or showing on the guards that they can get anything they want against him. He’s too far away to contest the open jump shot from the point guard after the pick. He’s to slow laterally to stop the point guard to drive right past him. And if the guard doesnt shoot it or drive it, he can EASILY hit the big man rolling to the basket once Al turns his back and follows his man to the basket becuzz Al cant see the ballhandler and his man rolling at the same time. Which all leads me to the conclusion that although he is effective offensively, hes FAR more detrimental defensively to be the starting center on an emerging team that has championship aspirations in the near future. Whether its by trade this year or after the season, the jig is up….. Big Al has got to go.
Sorry for cramming all that into one LONG paragraph, i called myself seperating it into paragraphs.
Wow!! I had to take a nap after reading that paragraph..
Everyone keeps calling for a trade. That is fine to wish, hope and dream. It is nice to have four bigs and; Evans waiting. For now.. However Favors finishes up playin in the pre-season I still think he should start and get his thirty minutes. You have to run a big horse to get him all the training he needs. Everyone needs to give him support and I think the offense will come. I also think he needs to spend some time with Kanter and Evans. And yes there is not enough minutes but that will be worked out by the coaches. Burks also needs more time. In due time a trade will have to be made. Maybe Jazz are waiting for someone to go down on another team and can make a better trade.
LK, If I had any faith in the coach I may agree with you, unfortunately I dont think Corbin has the balls to sit one of the experienced players down and take a chance on Favors
@Dallan Al’s team comradery is a big deal. I also think he has made major improvent to his passing game. There is a play that he went back and forth to Hayward @ the high post against the clippers that ended in a Hayward 3. Al is very smart and his salary wont kill us unless Favors or Hayward somehow become Allstars this year. He could be the perfect Vet to have with Favors and Kanter. It would be reasonable to have a decending contract which will show his true loyal colors.
@ Nick to make the above statement contradictive, you have the one good case for trading Al. from what our new offense is showing: no Iso . its up tempo Team movement
I have been very disappointed with Al and Millsaps lack of interior D and failure to run the court–failure to play w intensity. I know its preseason but the Clippers were talking it the Jazz and trying to win, while Al and Millsap were being out fought for position, out rebounded, allowing back door cuts, allowing baseline penetration.
CP3 was giving Mo a ton of trouble and it looked a lot like Harris trouble, and Mo was visibly frustrated (he kept saying stuff to Al after plays, usually after he fouled CP3). Both Millsap and Al didnt play the P&R well at all.
I actually am ready to turn it over to the C4, and play along side them the vets that are playing the best Marvin and Mo. Carroll has been playing fantastic as well. I say bench both Al and Millsap. I cannot stand another year of 1st quarter dumps. Against the better teams it will really hurt us.
Kanter
Favors
Marvin
Hayward
Mo
With Burks first player of the bench for Mo.
@Omar Ya it was not a coincidence that the Clippers owned us in the 3rd with the starters out there the other night. Not to mention they pretty much did the same thing in the 1st quarter but missed a bunch of wide open shots coming back from China that is expected. Then this last game we allow the starters without Griffin and Butler in their starting lineup to shoot 64%. The only reason we got ahead was the bench! It should be the opposite. We should get ahead with the starters and then the bench holds steady and does not allow them back in the game.
It has been the opposite the starters have been the problem with Al and Paul in there. I still do not expect a change because Corbin gives the minutes to the older players. Even though in his own words we need to get better on the defensive end. When he starts his best defensive player on the bench
For sure @Dallan. Clips went on a stretch making like 6 shots in a row; had it not been for Marvins 3s Jazz would have surrender 15 point lead.
I hate hearing all this b.s. about “competition” and “players earning their minutes” cuz if thats the case, Kanter deserves 30+ minutes; Marvin 30+, Hayward 30+, Burks 30+, Mo 30+ with Carroll, Favors, and Evans getting significant minutes.
Carroll, Favors, and Evans arent lighting up the box scores but they play hard with energy and run the floor.
Tinsley and Foye have been okay: a few bad shots but not horrible overall. But Millsap and Al as the 2 leading players in minutes last year, they have been pretty sorry on D, and barely okay on offensive.
I have little faith in Corbin tho.
I disagree with you all about Corbin. I’ve been extremely impressed with him so far this season.
Have you guys been watching the same team? Our team hasn’t played this well since the 2009-2010 season. And yes, that includes Sloan’s last year as head coach.
We are a very well executed offensive machine. And our defense has grown in leaps and bounds. Guys are rotating, passing, getting open for shots, and making excellent offensive and defensive transitions.
Oh yeah, and sloppy as it is right now, the Jazz still haven’t played defense this well in YEARS.
Um ya we have it is called when Derrick Favors is on the floor we play great defense. You know that guy named Pau Gasol? He shot 40% against us with Favors on the floor who blocked him 3 times. Last night vs Kings who have good bigs he shots 65%. Not only did he shoot that low percentage but he was t aggresive because of the blocks.
The biggest thing Corbin had to get better at was Defense and In game Rotations. We were ok on offense last year, Our defense was putrid. We probably would have gotten out on more breaks if we could have made stops and not had to take the ball out of the net. The more stops we make the more we can run. If 64% of the time the starters allow a shot to go in plus fouls that is probably only close to 30% of the time we can run. Drop that down to like 45% and you can probably run close to 50% of the time. There is a reason the lead expands when Favors and Kanter are on the floor. Hustle,Energy,Defense things yet to be seen by the Al,Paul combo.
Also we are still not there offensively our sets when we slow down are horrible! Al and Paul still take horrible forces shots and do not really care about moving the ball. They both took wild shots last game which in essence is a TO. If you take a bad shot there is no difference between that and dribbling it off your foot.
A bad shot has a much better percentage of going in the basket. I have never seen a ball dribbled of of a foot go in the basket. No one shoots 100%. And other than maybe the Bruins of old no one wins all their games.
The reason I say I have little faith in Corbin is cuz, ya, right now hes playing Favors and Kanter a lot, and Evans isnt getting DNPs, but come Oct. 31, even tho Kanter through competition has earned more minutes than Al and Millsap, I expect Corbin to start Al and Millsap: Al 34; Millsap 32; Kanter 15; Favors 15; Evans DNP. Foye is subbed in as the first guard?! Over Burks every game so far. I dont think Foye as out played Burks, nor has he played the PG better than Burks, so I dont get that.
When Turiaf and Jordan are getting layups, Barnes is getting wide open 3s, Crawford is looking like LBJ?!, and CP3 is getting wherever he wants…you are not playing good D. 2nd unit is playing fantastic and 3/5 of the starters as well, but thats the point, Jazz are playing great but look at who and how they are playing, and youll see the weaknesses Jazz still have from last year.
Clippers commentary even was pointing out that one would think Millsap would dominate with no Blake but he hasnt; he just keeps settling for outside shots—and thats Clips commentary saying that. I dont know if hes auditioning, or showing he has range but his game seems disjointed. And I dont know how many time in preseason that I have seen Al not even attempt to get 50/50 rebounds?! Whereas Kanter and Favors are battle each other for a rebound.
Tonight watch whi starts; guard penetration; how Al and Millsap guard the baseline; how Millsap and Al guard double screens; who is the first guard sub; compare how Kanter and Favors Evans run the court vs. Al and Millsap; in the starting line up watch how Hayward and Marvin run vs. Millsap and Al (and notice how many times Mo is waiving them to run); watch Mos body language and how/who he talks to after fouling Lillard.
A bad shot should not be taken! That is why it is a bad shot. I get that just throwing it at the hoop has more of a chance of going in but that is not what is going to get us to the playoffs.
There is a reason the Kings,Wizards and most bad teams are bad. Because they do not play team ball and go 1v1 and take bad shots all game. It is easy to defend and easy when you do that for the other team to get out on you and run.
No one shoots 100% but your center should not be shooting 40% and your PF should not be taking turn around or fadeaway jumpers. Those are not high percentage shots for anyone especially a PF.
No one wins all their games but they should be competitive and be willing to work hard and play hard. The two highest paid players are not doing that. Al is playing with more heart then Millsap right now though. Isn’t it crazy though that as soon as we change our style of play all of a sudden the guy who the offense was centered around last year is shooting 40%? It is because like I said they have to run the type of offense for Al. That is how it has to run but everyone called me crazy everyone said it would be better. Your right it is better now but not because of Al it is despite Al. And Millsap for that matter cause he has shown me nothing to be excited about with him this pre season
See statements above^^^^^^^
80% first quarter?!! Geez!!
Did anyone catch Lindsey’s face?!!! Hahahaha! I smell a trade soon.
I don’t understand why everyone is so high on Evans. First let me say I like him just fine and think he’s a great guy. However, he is COMPLETELY one dimensional. He can dunk the ball, that’s about it. Yes he had an incredible play the other night against the Clippers that still gives me chills. But he gets destroyed in the post by other PFs and can’t shoot a jump shot to save his life. He gets a couple weak side blocks here and there and can jump out of the gym. But in my opinion, he’s not a guy, at least at the moment, that deserves very much time.
@A.G but let’s be honest here can Millsap play great defense and not get pushed around by half the PF in the league? I mean everyone has their faults and yes Jeremy has some but I do not think anyone is clamoring for 35 mins. He is a guy on a championship team that is the glue guy. He makes a difference without showing it on the stat sheet. This is the same as Carrol. These players are necessary to win a championship. We have them but our “top tier” players that we are determined on using all the time are not those players.
Unfortunately we really do not know what Burks,Favors or Kanter can do with more time and an increased role cause they have not been given one. Hayward could easily be said the same for. Yes he gets minutes but what option is he on offense? Right now in the starting line up probably 5th. The only reason he gets points is because he is the one getting ahead of the defense for easy shots.
At least with Millsap you have some offensive reliability to negate his disadvantages on defense. If Evans doesn’t get the ball within a few feet of the basket he can’t produce. Personally he hasn’t given me much, other than the dunks, to get that excited about. I do agree that our young guys need more minutes, even if that means guys like Millsap and Jefferson need to take a back seat. I just don’t think Evans is even in the same conversation as Hayward, Burks, Kanter, or Favors as far as raw talent goes. I think it will be tough for him to ever be more than a spot minutes player. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong.
I agree with that. But also he was a 2nd round pick. There should not be more expectations from him then to be anything more then what he has shown us. He is pretty lucky to be in the NBA and on a 2nd contract.
@Dallan,
“I don’t know, Big Al gets fatter every year.”
Hahahahahahahahahaha. I really don’t know why I think this line is so funny. Maybe becuase it’s Friday and I’m sitting at work, mindlessly reading about the jazz, but when I read that sentence, I literally laughed out loud. Great lead-in sentence. I love it.
I don’t care whether it’s actually true or not. It could be, and I love the comment.
@ Stephen Loveless:
“The drive that endeared him to fans has fizzled out.”?
What are you talking about? How many game-tying finishes and almost-game-winners did Millsap have last season? Since the Miracle in Miami, Millsap has carried the Mr. Big Shot title all the way through the big triple OT win against Dallas. I do think Millsap could be a great 6th man in the future; the kind of 6th man that propels a team deeper into the playoffs, but I think Millsap still has that scrappy and in-your-face drive as much as ever. He led the team in steals and fouls and averaged more RPG in less MPG compared to the previous 2010/11 season.
“I believe Jefferson has immense potential.”
What you see is what you get at 27/28 years old. At best, he may start to learn the game better, particularly how to anticipate rotating on defense, but the dude isn’t going to be lifting his knees any higher nor sprinting faster after balls in the near future- if so, it’d be this year, but let’s be honest- he’s approached the majorirty of his potential. He isn’t all of suddenly going to start going left instead of right, and he isn’t going to be able to run the court like Favors or Kanter.
“Favors is begging for more time and I think he deserves it. His athleticism makes him much more of a threat on both sides of the ball.”
Favors needs to learn how to not get into foul trouble which is another way of saying he needs to learn to play better defense. True, he can be a defensive anchor at times with his ability to jump, deflect balls, and run the court, but still getting into foul trouble ends up putting him back on the bench and the other team at the charity stripe. That’s not good for Utah. I think it would be hard for Corbin to keep him in games if he’s fouling and putting other teams at the free throw line which was one of Utah’s biggest issues last year. Obviously this year will be transitional for the front court, and I think we could potentially see Favors’ time increasing as the year progresses and he fine tunes his skills, and likewise with Kanter.
“Kanter showed some serious dedication with his workouts this summer but that doesn’t mean he’ll keep it up if and when he’s offered big money.”
I think your reasoning hinges too much on using money as a carrott on the end of a stick for some of these players. Many of these players just want to win, be champions, or at least show they have the ability to be effective enough that the best teams will want to recruit them. I don’t think Kanter is thinking about money right now. Big Turkey went a year and a half without playing any serious basketball games (pre-Kentucky through lockout), then finally got some exposure in last year’s shortened season. I think Kanter is chomping at the bit, and I think money has nothing to do with his motivations at the moment. I think he just wants to play, kick @$$, and take names.
I think one of the other skills a lot of people are overlooking is how well (or not well) each of the big men passes the ball. This is almost as crucial as getting the ball to them when they’re in their desired positions, because when they get the ball where they like, the other teams will be aware of this, double team, and then the big man, whomever it may be, will have to find an efficient and effective way to get rid of the ball, hopefully to the person that is in the best position to either make a play or contribute to an eventual play that ends with an open bucket/shot/drive to the hoop. I think the big man that passes the ball well, rotates on defense well, runs the court, and makes solid screens will secure his starting spot. All of Utah’s big men have good footwork. All of them know how to finish, even Kanter now who has learned to not bring the ball down after rebounding but simply keeps it above his head now and goes back up like every big man should, but he can also hit midrange perimeter shots, like Jefferson, like Favors, like Millsap.
I think Jefferson is aware the he is on the chopping block this season, and I think that will motivate him to improve on some of his weaker areas. He knows this team is on a long term rise, and he wants to be a part of that instead of being dumped off to a third team that doesn’t make it to the playoffs regularly.
I think Kanter and Favors are going to seize every opportunity they get, and earn more playing time as the season progresses.
And I think Millsap will opt to stay with Utah if Utah ends up trading in Jefferson for a PG, or signs a top PG after letting Jefferson walk. Millsap wants a championship, and he knows other teams that are in championship contention want him because he makes big shots. I think this season is more about convincing Millsap to stay than it is about deliberating on what to do with the rest of the front court. We already know Favors and Kanter’s upsides are huge.
Millsap is doing everything tonight by the way. Just thinking back on your comment about Millsap: “The drive that endeared him to fans has fizzled.” Millsap had 13 rebounds at half time.